Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY) to retire? (It's official: he will)

[Galactic Overlord]

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--boehlert-retireme0314mar14,0,1399408.story?coll=ny-region-apnewyork

He's on retirement watch. Discuss.

[Alcon]

This is a competitive district, but Republican.

Here's the map:

[Smash255]

Bush won 51.85%- 45.90% in 04.

Party enrollment
42.28% GOP, 32.16% DEM, 25.56% 3rd/ ind

[Sam Spade]

Who are the likely contenders to take a gander at this seat should Boehlert retire?

[Smash255]

Who are the likely contenders to take a gander at this seat should Boehlert retire?

Mike Arcuri the Oneida County District Attorney,  is the favorite for the Dem nomination, and was expected to give Boehlert a fairly serious run if Boehlert decides to run again.   Some other Dems are in the mix, but Arcuri seems to be the favorite, ex Seneca Falls mayor Brad Jones is probably the most likley Republican in the mix if Boehlert decides to retire.

[socaldem]

Who are the likely contenders to take a gander at this seat should Boehlert retire?

Mike Arcuri the Oneida County District Attorney,  is the favorite for the Dem nomination, and was expected to give Boehlert a fairly serious run if Boehlert decides to run again.   Some other Dems are in the mix, but Arcuri seems to be the favorite, ex Seneca Falls mayor Brad Jones is probably the most likley Republican in the mix if Boehlert decides to retire.

The GOP certainly has the more robust bench upstate because of their ridiculous domination of non-NYC state senate seats.  I have heard State Senator Raymond Meier of Oneida County and State Senator James Seward of Otsego Co. mentioned as possible GOP candidates.  Of the two, Seward's district seems to have more overlap with the 24th, though he lives just outside the district.

On the Democratic side, there's Oneida Co. DA Mike Arcuri, of course, who, it seems, would be a formidable candidate. Oneida assemblywoman Roann Destito has also been mentioned as a potential candidate, but only if Boelhert retires.  Based on her strong election victories in a swing district, I would think she'd have a good chance.

As for the district's political geography: the Western areas seem to (Geneva, Cayuga Co., Tompkins Co, Broome Co) lean Democratic while the fairly populous Herkiner Co. is strongly Republican. 

Oneida county gave Bush a fairly healthy margin in 2004 but Democrats seem to do okay locally and with the potential Democratic contenders having a base there, they may be able to combine a strong Oneida showing with the Democratic areas out west to pull out a win.

Of course, whether the GOP candidate (whether Boehlert or someone else) gets the conservative party line on the ballot will make or break the GOP chances.

[Cubby]

This is a competitive district, but Republican.

So which is it, competitive or Republican?

I like Boehlert, he's a good moderate like Chris Shays.

I've been to Herkimer County, its pretty rural, although not as much as the Adirondack Park. Upstate New York is Republican by tradition, probably b/c they saw the Democrats as the NYC party. They are less libertarian, slightly more socially conservative than New Hampshire, but to the left of Central PA. 

[Galactic Overlord]

Actually, Boehlert has been able to survive without getting the Conservative line (he lost it to a challenger in the Republican primary). I don't remember the margin, but he still won handily with just the Republican line that year.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The 2004 presidential election in New York is not really representative of how things are there now.  Bush enjoyed a big swing in NY that year.  In 2000 Gore won 60%-35%, in 2004 Kerry won 58%-40%.  In Boehlert's District, Bush only won 48%-47% in 2000.  Also, take into account the huge margin that Eliot Spitzer is likely to win the Gubernatorial race by and the collapse of the NY Republican party; they will lose the Governor's Mansion, the Legislature and possibly one or two Congressional seats this year.  I think the Democrats can at least make this race very competetive, or win, if indeed Boehlert retires.

[socaldem]

Actually, Boehlert has been able to survive without getting the Conservative line (he lost it to a challenger in the Republican primary). I don't remember the margin, but he still won handily with just the Republican line that year.

Well, yeah.  But when facing a real Democratic challenger, things would get more messy for him.  In a slightly overlapping upstate senate district Demoratic Senator Velasky eked out a miniscule lead over the incumbent Republican when there was also a conservative.

[socaldem]

Per HRH, he will, indeed, retire.

[TheresNoMoney]

Bush won this district in both 2000 and 2004 by 4-5%.

[Galactic Overlord]

Actually, Boehlert has been able to survive without getting the Conservative line (he lost it to a challenger in the Republican primary). I don't remember the margin, but he still won handily with just the Republican line that year.

Well, yeah.  But when facing a real Democratic challenger, things would get more messy for him.  In a slightly overlapping upstate senate district Demoratic Senator Velasky eked out a miniscule lead over the incumbent Republican when there was also a conservative.

Maybe. I don't know upstate New York to a tee, it seems on the local level the Republicans do a lot better than on the federal.  James Walsh wins his district handily even though Kerry won it by three points.

[Galactic Overlord]

It's official.  Boehlert is out.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/nation/3731199.html

[nclib]

I give the Republicans the edge in this district. Upstate Republican congressmen tend to run ahead of Republican presidential candidates.

[Smash255]

I give the Republicans the edge in this district. Upstate Republican congressmen tend to run ahead of Republican presidential candidates.

granted I know much more about Long Island and downstate NY then I do about upstate, but at this point it seems that Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri (the Democratic frontrunner) is the strongest candidate from either side.

[Galactic Overlord]

State Senator Ray Meier (R) announces he will run for Boehlert's seat.