The election is basically over, isnt it?

[Tender Branson]

Not really.

It didn’t even begin yet.

Only after Labor Day will things (and LV polls) get interesting ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Especially,  when it's a VBM election,  we have never used a VBM election and if WI, MI and PA are close, results wont be certified until after election day

[Tender Branson]

Especially,  when it's a VBM election,  we have never used a VBM election and if WI, MI and PA are close, results wont be certified until after election day

It’s not a total vote by mail election though, maybe 50-50 in some states.

The results in mostly election-day voting states will give us a clue though where the race is heading, even if the postal vote count takes longer in several states ...

[StateBoiler]

These threads are really reminding me of 2016.  But I do think Biden's chances are over 90% right now because, Atlas aside, the complacency of the general electorate is more on the right as most Republicans don't believe the polls at all because of 2016.

The difference between 2016 and now is in 2016 most everyone outside of the "always vote D regardless" voters hated the Democratic nominee. The only people that hate Biden are the diehard Sanders supporters.

Furthermore, all of the center-right people who voted Trump in the hopes that he would "pivot," and "the office will make the man," are probably reevaluating that decision. Anyone who was cautiously optimistic Trump would be molded into a competent president are disappointed at this point. Biden is a reasonable alternative for these people.

Trump has not even met my already low expectations for him. It's been a disaster of a presidency, and he will probably be remembered as the guy who was handed Obama's America and Obama's economy on a silver platter and somehow managed to **** all of it up. We were on easy mode, but not anymore.

The Obama's economy acting like it was healthy was ridiculous. It was a zombie based on long-term ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) with high amounts of leveraged debt to finance everything.

If the economy was healthy in 2016, why were interest rates still at near historical lows?

I don't really remember 2016 being THAT great. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump never become credible candidates in a happy country that is working well.

The answer in 2016 was that inflation was very low, and the Fed believed there was still room for the job market to improve. Janet Yellen said as much:

So why didn’t we raise the federal funds rate at today’s meeting? Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy. Conditions in the labor market are strengthening, and we expect that to continue. And while inflation remains low, we expect it to rise to our 2 percent objective over time. But with labor market slack being taken up at a somewhat slower pace than in previous years, scope for some further improvement in the labor market remaining, and inflation continuing to run below our 2 percent target, we chose to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward our objectives.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/fed-fomc-sept/501020/

Now let's talk about December of 2018. Because at that point we were at full employment. The unemployment rate was below 4%. Every piece of sound monetary doctrine says that that is the time to raise interest rates. And raise them they did. And this pushed the stock market (and Trump's approval numbers) downward. What did Trump do? He put a bunch of his guys on the Federal Reserve district boards to LOWER interest rates. There was no economic justification for this. None.

Fast forward to March of 2020. A public health disaster that led to a severe economic shock. Had the Fed followed sound policy and raised rates 25 basis points per quarter, in a calm, highly predictable manner to allow the market to bake in interest rate expectations and avoid shocks to the system, we would have been in a much better position. We were at a 2.5% FFR at the end of 2019, which would have put us at 3.75% last March. That would have given the Fed lots of room to open up the cash flow.

Now, I realize that the FFR isn't a sonic screwdriver - it isn't a magic tool that can fix everything, but it's an important tool, and Trump's stacking of the Fed boards took that tool away. He politicized the Fed, which in and of itself is bad mojo. The world's confidence in the dollar and in US treasuries depends on the belief that the Fed is politically neutral. Manipulating a central bank for political purposes is playing with fire.

All that aside, exactly what did Trump do to aid the economy's roaring progress through 2019? A milquetoast tax reform bill? Deregulation? If there was any meaningful impact, it was that investors expect an environment of low taxes and less burdensome regulations, and were bullish on the future. The market exploded between Trump's election and his inauguration. Trump didn't do that, investors did.

Obama got elected with the economy circling the drain, on the precipice of a possible second Great Depression. He left office with 4.7% unemployment and seven straight years of GDP growth. Trump was the beneficiary of that. Voters understand this.

No economy at or near ZIRP should ever be declared healthy. Go look at Japan the past 30 years.

The Fed has been politicized since Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair. This isn't exactly new. I agree rates should have been higher and they would have lots of room to open up the cash flow afterward, but don't sit and tell me interest rates are under 1% and the economy is healthy.

[SN2903]

Unemployment rose 2.5 million in May! Economy already recovering. This is a shocker no one expected a decesae in May. If this keeps up it could re-elect Trump. Futures are up 650
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/jobs-report-may-2020.html

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No economy at or near ZIRP should ever be declared healthy. Go look at Japan the past 30 years.

The Fed has been politicized since Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair. This isn't exactly new. I agree rates should have been higher and they would have lots of room to open up the cash flow afterward, but don't sit and tell me interest rates are under 1% and the economy is healthy.

So the FFR cuts during 2019 mean the economy was getting worse?

[morgankingsley]

It will probably pick up again by October but if Biden is still leading by more than 4 or 5 in early November, then yeah

[ugabug]

No matter how well things look at the moment all you need is one good week for Trump and his approval ratings and chance of winning will begin to go up again so people shouldn't get to optimistic or pessimistic until the final few weeks in my opinion.

[Orwell]

I refuse to accept Biden has won until Trump gets dragged out of the white house by the secret service

[Mr. Smith]

270 to be reached for Trump, The Senate flips for Biden.

Neither of those are determined until E-Day.

[Orwell]

Unemployment rose 2.5 million in May! Economy already recovering. This is a shocker no one expected a decesae in May. If this keeps up it could re-elect Trump. Futures are up 650
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/jobs-report-may-2020.html

That means fewer people had jobs

[The Free North]

Even an economic recovery can't save Trump. The damage is done, he's too far gone. People were willing to give him a chance thinking the oddness of his campaign might somehow lend itself to good governance. Its clear at this point he's annoying at best during good times and a disaster during actual moments of national crisis and grossly unfit for the job.

A federal reserve inflated rally into the fall will do nothing to heal the scars he's left on America already and our national nightmare will mercifully be over in a few months.


Frankly my biggest concern is if Trump will put up a stink on the way out and I fear every night he will. The lasting damage to our democracy from the past four years will be significant. We must pray he goes peacefully, but I can't see how his brain will let that happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a VBM election nothing is solidified in stone; consequently, WI, and PA may not be certified on Election day. We must be patient and not jump the gun.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Yeah it's over. The fact that we know so early is somewhat re-assuring. We won't see the depot attempt to cling to power. He has four months to make peace with his inevitable loss. He'll be trying to 'secure his legacy' while 'blaming everyone and anything'. Forces outside his control. The Deep State. The pandemic. Hurricane season. The economy. Democrats. Republicans. The Chinese. Maybe he's already thinking about leaving the door cracked open for 2024 - not that I think he'll run in four years, but giving it a good ponder and having that option is probably good for his mental health right now.

I hope Biden wins in a landslide. I hope he wins Texas and Georgia. I hope his administration is healing, but unforgiving. I hope they prosecute Trump and all his cronies.

[pppolitics]

It's not over until Biden gets 270 EV

[Bomster]

It’s looking really really good for us, the election is clearly lean to likely Biden right now, however my pessimism tells me Trump could still win if we screw it up. We CANNOT grow complacent.

[pppolitics]

Some would say that the election is not over until the end of election day.

I have to disagree.

From then, lawsuits could drag on for weeks and even months.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's not over until Biden gets 270 EV

[GeneralMacArthur]

Yes.  PredictIt now has Biden at a 54% favorite to win the presidency.

We've learned in the last 4 years that 54% > 46% meaning he's absolutely going to win.  We know this from all the people saying "hurr durr Nate BRONZE said Clinton was going to win, all his predictions are wrong!"

[jamestroll]

Biden may be favored but we have no idea how the electorate will react to civil unrest long term and what backlash towards Democrats there would be if there is no covid spike after these openings and mass gatherings

[The Free North]

Sensual bump.

The points raised before still stand and given the risk of a second wave, there will be little chance for Trump to claw anything back outside of the debates.

Things have fallen perfectly for Joe and we are very thankful for that.

[Kleine Scheiße]

The election is probably over, yeah, at this point. We just won’t know how it ended until November.

We still can’t afford to cede one inch of territory to the Republicans this cycle.

[MABA 2020]

Biden may be in a very very good position atm but we can't get complacent, we need that Senate as well

[Brittain33]

Biden could die or be seriously incapacitated before November.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Keep the pedal to the metal.  There is always more to be gained.

Give Biden an overwhelming mandate.  Victories in NC, FL, AZ, GA, TX and a huge popular vote majority will empower the administration and demonstrate an emphatic national rejection of Trumpism.  The massive turnout will carry over into future elections and downballot races.  Don't force us to live through a nail-biter on election night, watching Wisconsin go down to the wire at 1 AM.  Don't be sitting there wishing you'd done more.

Get the senate.  Right now it's just about a toss-up, and the key races are for seats you never hear about.  North Carolina.  Iowa.  Montana.  Georgia.  We have to win this seats to take back the Senate and give Biden a legislative majority to enact his agenda, and roll back all of Trump's damage.  And the more seats we win, the more easily he'll be able to do that, without having to rely on Manchin and Sinema to agree on everything.  If you don't win the Senate, you can't replace RBG.

Expand the House majority.  Give Pelosi a large majority to enact her agenda.  Lock down those swingy seats we won in 2018.  Don't roll into 2022 having to worry about it flipping back to Republicans.  Don't have to deal with floor fights over every piece of legislation that end in awkward compromises.

Take the state houses.  It's the census year and we're going to have a new round of gerrymandering.  Gerrymandering is bad, but you have to fight fire with fire, and it's better to gerrymander in the Democratic Party's favor.  In 2010 we got blown out and the Republicans locked down a lot of house seats for a decade.  We can flip that back.  Get out and campaign and donate and vote for your local state house and state senate candidates.