The election is basically over, isnt it?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's not over, but the electorate is so locked in at this point, it will take something major to turn it around for Trump. I think he needs:

1. A massive economic recovery
2. A long period of Trump acting like an adult
3. Landmark legislation that is popular with independents

He really could use:

4. A major Biden scandal

I don't see any of those happening, let alone 3 out of 4.

Furthermore, the things that would have helped Trump early in his tenure will no longer help, or may hurt him:

1. Yet another migrant refugee crisis
2. A SCOTUS vacancy
3. A terror attack
4. A major military action with broad popular support

The last one might move the needle, but a terror attack will just further expose Trump's lack of leadership and good decision making. You're basically giving Trump a loaded weapon to defeat Biden, which he will undoubtedly use to shoot himself in the leg.

[Non Swing Voter]

These threads are really reminding me of 2016.  But I do think Biden's chances are over 90% right now because, Atlas aside, the complacency of the general electorate is more on the right as most Republicans don't believe the polls at all because of 2016.

[Obiden2020]

I love the complacency and the measuring of the drapes! It is the same thing dems did in 2016. I remember this two times in 2016: in August 2016 and after the Access Hollywood tape when Democrats declared the race over. Trump's greatest strength similar to Reagan and Nixon is being underestimated.

Trump's base will come out in full force. You will see a turnout the likes of which you have never seen on 11.3.20. The polls are not measuring the turnout Trump will have. The silent majority is fed up with the media in this country and the constant political witch hunts the democrats and media have been doing.

I think this will be a Dewey beats Truman moment.

Would you still feel that way if former President George W. Bush endorses Biden? Or Mitt Romney? (Which he should--after all, he voted to impeach Trump and remove him from office).
Other than 18-21 year olds, will many people vote Trump who didn't vote for him in 2016?
I agree that Trump's base will turn out, but so will his detractors, and they will be more unified than in 2016.

I don't think a Bush or Romney endorsement would matter. I agree the opposition is more unified but I also think Trump will get even more people who never voted in 16 than last time. Polls are not measuring this.

Cope, cope, cope. Yes, because there will be a sudden rush of non-registered voters who sign up to vote for Trump in the next 150 days.

Biden and the Dems live rent free in this guy's head.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1268531195232600065

[StateBoiler]

These threads are really reminding me of 2016.  But I do think Biden's chances are over 90% right now because, Atlas aside, the complacency of the general electorate is more on the right as most Republicans don't believe the polls at all because of 2016.

The difference between 2016 and now is in 2016 most everyone outside of the "always vote D regardless" voters hated the Democratic nominee. The only people that hate Biden are the diehard Sanders supporters.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

We're six months away from the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We're six months away from the election.

It's actually less than five months now.

[WD]

Yeah this election is shaping up to be more like 2018 than 2016

[Bidenworth2020]

I think Biden will win unless Trump can get a vaccine before November, in which case he probably wins fairly easily.

[Orser67]

I think one could make a strong argument that the race would essentially be over if the election was determined by the national popular vote. I also think that the House is pretty much Safe D at this point.

But I think Trump still has a chance (~20%) of pulling off a win, primarily because I don't think Democrats have locked down 270 electoral votes. I feel pretty confident they'll win Clinton states+PA+MI (which gets them to 268 electoral votes), but I don't think any of AZ, WI, or FL (or NC/GA/whatever) are in the bag.

There's also the chance that Biden dies or gets damaged by a huge scandal or gaffe, that Trump gets extremely lucky with the economy or a vaccine or something, or that some kind of bs happens with the actual electors (the last scenario is admittedly pretty unlikely).

[Camaro33]

The election is definitely likely Biden. Just four months ago, however, I felt the election was tossup to tilt Trump after the SOTU.

Who knows where the election will be four months from now, but the momentum and tide definitely appears to be in Biden's favor. While I'm sure the race will tighten somewhat when there is active campaigning later in the summer and fall, Trump will need absolutely everything to go right to get it back to tossup.

[YE]

I think Biden will win unless Trump can get a vaccine before November, in which case he probably wins fairly easily.

What? How will a vaccine help Trump? Even if we get one by then, it’s going to take time for the masses to get it and the economy isn’t all of a sudden going to become strong because certain jobs are not coming back.

[Bidenworth2020]

I think Biden will win unless Trump can get a vaccine before November, in which case he probably wins fairly easily.

What? How will a vaccine help Trump? Even if we get one by then, it’s going to take time for the masses to get it and the economy isn’t all of a sudden going to become strong because certain jobs are not coming back.

It might not be a lock for Trump, but if it came out as an "October Surprise" that there was a vaccine about to be widely distributed, I think it could be convincingly tied to his creation of "Operation Warp Speed". That said, Trump manages to bungle perfect opportunities, so who knows.

[MillennialModerate]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

These threads are really reminding me of 2016.  But I do think Biden's chances are over 90% right now because, Atlas aside, the complacency of the general electorate is more on the right as most Republicans don't believe the polls at all because of 2016.

The difference between 2016 and now is in 2016 most everyone outside of the "always vote D regardless" voters hated the Democratic nominee. The only people that hate Biden are the diehard Sanders supporters.

Furthermore, all of the center-right people who voted Trump in the hopes that he would "pivot," and "the office will make the man," are probably reevaluating that decision. Anyone who was cautiously optimistic Trump would be molded into a competent president are disappointed at this point. Biden is a reasonable alternative for these people.

Trump has not even met my already low expectations for him. It's been a disaster of a presidency, and he will probably be remembered as the guy who was handed Obama's America and Obama's economy on a silver platter and somehow managed to **** all of it up. We were on easy mode, but not anymore.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

I give this troll a B-. Good, but not great.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We're six months away from the election.

It's actually less than five months now.

Ban him, kalwejt!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

[Eraserhead]

Biden is favored at the moment but it's definitely not over unfortunately.

[Bomster]

Fight like you’re 5 points down!

[StateBoiler]

These threads are really reminding me of 2016.  But I do think Biden's chances are over 90% right now because, Atlas aside, the complacency of the general electorate is more on the right as most Republicans don't believe the polls at all because of 2016.

The difference between 2016 and now is in 2016 most everyone outside of the "always vote D regardless" voters hated the Democratic nominee. The only people that hate Biden are the diehard Sanders supporters.

Furthermore, all of the center-right people who voted Trump in the hopes that he would "pivot," and "the office will make the man," are probably reevaluating that decision. Anyone who was cautiously optimistic Trump would be molded into a competent president are disappointed at this point. Biden is a reasonable alternative for these people.

Trump has not even met my already low expectations for him. It's been a disaster of a presidency, and he will probably be remembered as the guy who was handed Obama's America and Obama's economy on a silver platter and somehow managed to **** all of it up. We were on easy mode, but not anymore.

The Obama's economy acting like it was healthy was ridiculous. It was a zombie based on long-term ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) with high amounts of leveraged debt to finance everything.

If the economy was healthy in 2016, why were interest rates still at near historical lows?

I don't really remember 2016 being THAT great. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump never become credible candidates in a happy country that is working well.

[Senator Spark]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

[SN2903]

I believe the Trump campaign has some significant dirt on Biden (oppo research) that they have not dumped yet just how Bush had stuff on Kerry in 2004.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I believe the Trump campaign has some significant dirt on Biden (oppo research) that they have not dumped yet just how Bush had stuff on Kerry in 2004.

(And disclaimer: this isn't me attacking you, SN). 

You're basing this on...what, exactly? (Besides "a gut feeling" and "chances are good that he has something"). 

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

These threads are really reminding me of 2016.  But I do think Biden's chances are over 90% right now because, Atlas aside, the complacency of the general electorate is more on the right as most Republicans don't believe the polls at all because of 2016.

The difference between 2016 and now is in 2016 most everyone outside of the "always vote D regardless" voters hated the Democratic nominee. The only people that hate Biden are the diehard Sanders supporters.

Furthermore, all of the center-right people who voted Trump in the hopes that he would "pivot," and "the office will make the man," are probably reevaluating that decision. Anyone who was cautiously optimistic Trump would be molded into a competent president are disappointed at this point. Biden is a reasonable alternative for these people.

Trump has not even met my already low expectations for him. It's been a disaster of a presidency, and he will probably be remembered as the guy who was handed Obama's America and Obama's economy on a silver platter and somehow managed to **** all of it up. We were on easy mode, but not anymore.

The Obama's economy acting like it was healthy was ridiculous. It was a zombie based on long-term ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) with high amounts of leveraged debt to finance everything.

If the economy was healthy in 2016, why were interest rates still at near historical lows?

I don't really remember 2016 being THAT great. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump never become credible candidates in a happy country that is working well.

The answer in 2016 was that inflation was very low, and the Fed believed there was still room for the job market to improve. Janet Yellen said as much:

So why didn’t we raise the federal funds rate at today’s meeting? Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy. Conditions in the labor market are strengthening, and we expect that to continue. And while inflation remains low, we expect it to rise to our 2 percent objective over time. But with labor market slack being taken up at a somewhat slower pace than in previous years, scope for some further improvement in the labor market remaining, and inflation continuing to run below our 2 percent target, we chose to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward our objectives.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/fed-fomc-sept/501020/

Now let's talk about December of 2018. Because at that point we were at full employment. The unemployment rate was below 4%. Every piece of sound monetary doctrine says that that is the time to raise interest rates. And raise them they did. And this pushed the stock market (and Trump's approval numbers) downward. What did Trump do? He put a bunch of his guys on the Federal Reserve district boards to LOWER interest rates. There was no economic justification for this. None.

Fast forward to March of 2020. A public health disaster that led to a severe economic shock. Had the Fed followed sound policy and raised rates 25 basis points per quarter, in a calm, highly predictable manner to allow the market to bake in interest rate expectations and avoid shocks to the system, we would have been in a much better position. We were at a 2.5% FFR at the end of 2019, which would have put us at 3.75% last March. That would have given the Fed lots of room to open up the cash flow.

Now, I realize that the FFR isn't a sonic screwdriver - it isn't a magic tool that can fix everything, but it's an important tool, and Trump's stacking of the Fed boards took that tool away. He politicized the Fed, which in and of itself is bad mojo. The world's confidence in the dollar and in US treasuries depends on the belief that the Fed is politically neutral. Manipulating a central bank for political purposes is playing with fire.

All that aside, exactly what did Trump do to aid the economy's roaring progress through 2019? A milquetoast tax reform bill? Deregulation? If there was any meaningful impact, it was that investors expect an environment of low taxes and less burdensome regulations, and were bullish on the future. The market exploded between Trump's election and his inauguration. Trump didn't do that, investors did.

Obama got elected with the economy circling the drain, on the precipice of a possible second Great Depression. He left office with 4.7% unemployment and seven straight years of GDP growth. Trump was the beneficiary of that. Voters understand this.