The election is basically over, isnt it?

[The Free North]

With any luck Biden will win in a landslide and Republicans will keep the senate.

Divided government is always best

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Biden could die or be seriously incapacitated before November.

At this point this an unforeseen event of this magnitude seems about the only thing able to swing the election in Trump's favor

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With any luck Biden will win in a landslide and Republicans will keep the senate.

Divided government is always best

Wont happen, if Biden wins Bullock, Bollier, Greenfild and Cunningham will all win

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Let's say Biden's +10, which is about where RCP and the 538 tracker both have him. Let's say Trump has a shot at pulling off an PV/EC split at Biden +3. Is it crazy that Trump could make up 7 points, 3-4 points of which he had a few months ago? Not really.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Let's say Biden's +10, which is about where RCP and the 538 tracker both have him. Let's say Trump has a shot at pulling off an PV/EC split at Biden +3. Is it crazy that Trump could make up 7 points, 3-4 points of which he had a few months ago? Not really.

During normal times? It's wouldn't be *that* implausible.

During a pandemic that he has continued to screw up the response to for several months, and which will, in all likelihood, still be going on four months from now? Not impossible, but unlikely enough that I might call it crazy.

My most recent prediction maps already feel out of date.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3% of 3rd party support and 3.5 percent unemployment helped Trump win AZ, FL, WI, PA and MI. Hilary in 2016 even won the popular vote. That's why the electoral college needs to go and we only have 3 states with R state legislatures stopping direct elections amendment and that is WI, PA and MI, the same states that put Trump in with Gary Johnson

[ProudModerate2]

[R.P. McM]

Keep the pedal to the metal.  There is always more to be gained.

Give Biden an overwhelming mandate.  Victories in NC, FL, AZ, GA, TX and a huge popular vote majority will empower the administration and demonstrate an emphatic national rejection of Trumpism.  The massive turnout will carry over into future elections and downballot races.  Don't force us to live through a nail-biter on election night, watching Wisconsin go down to the wire at 1 AM.  Don't be sitting there wishing you'd done more.

Get the senate.  Right now it's just about a toss-up, and the key races are for seats you never hear about.  North Carolina.  Iowa.  Montana.  Georgia.  We have to win this seats to take back the Senate and give Biden a legislative majority to enact his agenda, and roll back all of Trump's damage.  And the more seats we win, the more easily he'll be able to do that, without having to rely on Manchin and Sinema to agree on everything.  If you don't win the Senate, you can't replace RBG.

Expand the House majority.  Give Pelosi a large majority to enact her agenda.  Lock down those swingy seats we won in 2018.  Don't roll into 2022 having to worry about it flipping back to Republicans.  Don't have to deal with floor fights over every piece of legislation that end in awkward compromises.

Take the state houses.  It's the census year and we're going to have a new round of gerrymandering.  Gerrymandering is bad, but you have to fight fire with fire, and it's better to gerrymander in the Democratic Party's favor.  In 2010 we got blown out and the Republicans locked down a lot of house seats for a decade.  We can flip that back.  Get out and campaign and donate and vote for your local state house and state senate candidates.

Sure you can! And if Republicans want to further delegitimize the Court and the Senate, and accelerate the eventual reform/destruction of those bodies, they're welcome to.

[T'Chenka]

Biden could die or be seriously incapacitated before November.

Correct me if I'm wrong - that means Bernie right? Unless the convention happens and then it's Biden's VP running mate?

[Brittain33]

Biden could die or be seriously incapacitated before November.

Correct me if I'm wrong - that means Bernie right? Unless the convention happens and then it's Biden's VP running mate?

It doesn’t mean Bernie because Biden’s delegates become uncommitted and Bernie has a minority. It means a really messy, ugly fight that pisses off the Bernie folks again unless the party identifies a unifying compromise candidate early. By that I mean someone like Jill Biden rather than any previous 2020 candidate.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

When I see threads like this my first instinct is to hope Trump wins, because I am a contrarian and I can't stand people saying over before it's over. My second instinct is that it would be even worse because the people who should get their comeuppance and eat crow, would instead start to complain about voter fraud, voter suppression, Russia etc.

Anyways

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If this were a baseball season, Biden now has a 10-game lead. Can you blow a 10-game lead between July and October? Yes. Is it likely to happen? No.

[Fritz]

There is one scenario tn which I see Trump standing a chance of winning.  If he becomes ill with covid-19 and recovers (i.e., does not die), he may get enough sympathy votes to possibly win.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden could die or be seriously incapacitated before November.

Correct me if I'm wrong - that means Bernie right? Unless the convention happens and then it's Biden's VP running mate?

Inshallah, it means Hillary Clinton again.

[Person Man]

When I see threads like this my first instinct is to hope Trump wins, because I am a contrarian and I can't stand people saying over before it's over. My second instinct is that it would be even worse because the people who should get their comeuppance and eat crow, would instead start to complain about voter fraud, voter suppression, Russia etc.

Anyways

You're not the only one and what good would complaining about the loss of our sovereignty and the rigging of our democracy to do now? I mean, I guess it weakened Trump to the point we could take the House by a good margin but the Senate would NEVER convict him. He either loses in November or becomes the first person alive to "have their cake and eat it too" or at least the first term-limited president to never be held accountable for his actions.

[morgankingsley]

If election was today, it would be a Biden landslide. But it isn't

[°Leprechaun]

Right now, I see three scenarios.
1> Trump wins (or maybe loses narrowly)
3> Landslide for Biden (357 to over 400)
2> Somewhere in between the two above

Perhaps a one in three chance for each scenario, so no, it is still too early to call this for Biden, as horrible as the thought of a Trump victory seems right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden looked so stellar when he was debating Ds but he looked bad when he couldnt speak in that gymnasium. It looked bad, to independents. After that speech, polls started taking a turn. No the election isnt over

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The following got deleted by a mod for "Excessive Hyperbole". I wish it was excessive hyperbole. I'm reposting it with links. Original deleted post text in quotes.

I think odds are excellent that Biden would win a free and fair election against Mr. Trump.

Biden’s Massive Lead

I am growing worried, because hardly anyone seems ready to acknowledge that it will not be anything like a free and fair election.

(This one is wrong - Biden's campaign is well aware of what the GOP is going to try, and there is a reasonable amount of coverage. It's not a topic I've noticed a lot on this forum, though.) Biden campaign readying hundreds of lawyers in expansive vote protection effort

There are no incentives to keep Republicans honest.

Trump claims 'full exoneration' after acquittal but Pelosi insists he remains impeached 'forever'
A clear sign of William Barr's scandalous abuse of power

And they will face no consequences for cheating, while the consequences of losing, especially for the Chief Cheeto, are dire.

GOP approval rises, Democrats fall post-impeachment in Gallup poll
Donald Trump Could Face Criminal Charges The Day He Leaves Office

Moscow Mitch has spent years enabling foreign interference in the election.

Obama's former chief of staff is blaming Mitch McConnell for 'watering down' their response to Russia's 2016 election interference
McConnell Skeptical of Mandatory Disclosures for Facebook, Twitter Ads (2017)
Senate rejects additional election security spending even as experts warn of growing foreign threat (2018)
Mitch McConnell blocks election security legislation(2019)
Senate GOP blocks three election security bills (Feb, 2020)
GOP quietly kills measure to discourage foreign election interference (June, 2020)

Republican voter suppression"poll watching" operations have been unmuzzled for the first time in decades.

Decades-Old Consent Decree Lifted Against RNC's 'Ballot Security' Measures
Donald Trump and the GOP’s History of Voter Suppression
Trump adviser: Expect more aggressive poll watching in 2020

Republicans have been rolling back voting rights and ballot access all year long.

Louisville, city of 600,000, has a single polling place in Kentucky primary
Republicans Will Fight to Stop Expanded Voting by Mail in November
Texas Supreme Court blocks vote-by-mail expansion to those lacking immunity to the coronavirus
Voter purges: are Republicans trying to rig the 2020 election?
Florida Republicans win latest attempt to restrict voting rights of ex-felons

Benedict Donald has spent years attacking our elections as illegitimate unless he wins.

‘Benedict Donald’: New ad from veterans’ group compares Trump to America’s greatest traitor over Russia bounties
US election 2016: Trump says election 'rigged at polling places' (2016)
Trump Continues to Attack 'Rigged' Elections - The Atlantic (2019)
Trump works to undermine faith in elections as his polls reach a low point (Yesterday)
Donald Trump: 'I will totally accept' election results 'if I win'



Again, I would be very happy if the above truly was excessive, like Republican fearmongering about the UN and Obama, or various untrue rumors about Bush & Cheney's 2008 plans. But as I've documented, what I've described is the actual state of our politics and elections in 2020.

[SaneDemocrat]

If this were a baseball season, Biden now has a 10-game lead. Can you blow a 10-game lead between July and October? Yes. Is it likely to happen? No.

Biden is up 24-3 mid second quarter in football. Hard but not impossible.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If this were a baseball season, Biden now has a 10-game lead. Can you blow a 10-game lead between July and October? Yes. Is it likely to happen? No.

Biden is up 24-3 mid second quarter in football. Hard but not impossible.

I ran this scenario (down 21 points receiving the ball midway through the 2nd quarter) into the Pro Football Reference win probability calculator.  

The chance of the trailing team winning here is about 3%.

That seems fair to me.

[Dr. Arch]

Biden could die or be seriously incapacitated before November.

At this point this an unforeseen event of this magnitude seems about the only thing able to swing the election in Trump's favor

Yes, Yes, we get it. Everything is good for Trump.

[Tender Branson]

No.

Not at all.

Trump voters are completely nuts, education- and fact-resistant and will turn out in huge numbers.

Biden needs to turn out his folk too, which is not at all guaranteed.

If he doesn’t, it will be quite close again ... even if Biden wins Indys.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Biden could die or be seriously incapacitated before November.

At this point this an unforeseen event of this magnitude seems about the only thing able to swing the election in Trump's favor

Yes, Yes, we get it. Everything is good for Trump.

I mean an unforeseen event like Biden dying or a vaccine discovery undoubtably would hurt Biden.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden could die or be seriously incapacitated before November.

At this point this an unforeseen event of this magnitude seems about the only thing able to swing the election in Trump's favor

I disagree.  I think that Biden dying would help Biden.  

Yes, Yes, we get it. Everything is good for Trump.

I mean an unforeseen event like Biden dying or a vaccine discovery undoubtably would hurt Biden.

I disagree.  I think Biden dying would help Biden.