Germany demographic maps

[minionofmidas]

Population density

(green - low, purple - high)

Trend to 2020

(Blue - decline, red - increase)

[WMS]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

[minionofmidas]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Upper Bavaria, that is.

[WMS]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Upper Bavaria, that is.

Got it. I wonder what impact that will have on the CSU?

[Cubby]

Does Bavaria have a noticably higher birth rate than the rest of Germany? Does Germany do birth rates by state/lander?

[afleitch]

The former GDR, minus Berlin and a few cities is suffering from population loss. That seems to jump out very well from the map.

[minionofmidas]

Does Bavaria have a noticably higher birth rate than the rest of Germany? Does Germany do birth rates by state/lander?

I think Baden-Württemberg's is higher than Bavaria's actually. (I know where I can find figures, I'm just not quite sure where on the net I can find 'em.) The main factor involved is internal migration, though. Especially if you bear in mind that most people migrate first and have children after, so the birth rate differentials are largely due to migration really as well.

[minionofmidas]

2004 data...
In thousands per year
marriages, divorces, births, deaths. Note that this is not per head of the population.
Baden-Württemberg 51 25 97 92 +5
Bayern 61 30 111 116 -5
Berlin 13 10 29 32 -2
Brandenburg 11 6 18 26 -8
Bremen 3 2 5 7 -2
Hamburg 7 5 16 18 -1
Hessen 30 17 54 59 -4
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 10 4 13 17 -4
Niedersachsen 42 22 70 81 -11
Nordrhein-Westfalen 88 51 158 184 -26
Rheinland-Pfalz 21 11 33 42 -8
Saarland 5 3 8 12 -4
Sachsen 17 9 33 48 -15
Sachsen-Anhalt 11 6 17 29 -12
Schleswig-Holstein 18 8 24 30 -6
Thüringen 10 5 17 25 -8
Deutschland 396 214 706 818 -113

[Cubby]

2004 data...
In thousands per year
marriages, divorces, births, deaths. Note that this is not per head of the population.
Baden-Württemberg 51 25 97 92 +5
Bayern 61 30 111 116 -5
Berlin 13 10 29 32 -2
Brandenburg 11 6 18 26 -8
Bremen 3 2 5 7 -2
Hamburg 7 5 16 18 -1
Hessen 30 17 54 59 -4
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 10 4 13 17 -4
Niedersachsen 42 22 70 81 -11
Nordrhein-Westfalen 88 51 158 184 -26
Rheinland-Pfalz 21 11 33 42 -8
Saarland 5 3 8 12 -4
Sachsen 17 9 33 48 -15
Sachsen-Anhalt 11 6 17 29 -12
Schleswig-Holstein 18 8 24 30 -6
Thüringen 10 5 17 25 -8
Deutschland 396 214 706 818 -113

Thanks Lewis

Those are some of the lowest birth rates I've ever seen. There's no variation between the lander. I thought Bavaria would have been higher because of its unique conservative nature, but their birth rate (9 per thousand) is below any of the 50 states. Vermont and Maine are about 11 per thousand, while Utah () is at 22 per thousand, nearly as high as India.

[minionofmidas]

Those are some of the lowest birth rates I've ever seen.

Indeed they are. We're dying out!

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There is a little ... mostly just east vs west though.

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It's electoral nature is unique. The vibe of the country isn't really all that different from elsewhere. Well, Munich is awfully squeaky and dull for such a major city - it feels very different from Frankfurt - , but then so is Stuttgart. Or Düsseldorf. (But here's something to ponder for you: the ethnic makeup of Munich is almost as diverse as Frankfurt's,  more so than Hamburg's or Berlin's.) But Munich suburbia doesn't really feel much different from Frankfurt suburbia, rural Franconia doesn't feel one bit different from rural Rheinland-Pfalz.

[Cubby]

Those are some of the lowest birth rates I've ever seen.

Indeed they are. We're dying out!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is a little ... mostly just east vs west though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's electoral nature is unique. The vibe of the country isn't really all that different from elsewhere. Well, Munich is awfully squeaky and dull for such a major city - it feels very different from Frankfurt - , but then so is Stuttgart. Or Düsseldorf. (But here's something to ponder for you: the ethnic makeup of Munich is almost as diverse as Frankfurt's,  more so than Hamburg's or Berlin's.) But Munich suburbia doesn't really feel much different from Frankfurt suburbia, rural Franconia doesn't feel one bit different from rural Rheinland-Pfalz.

If Pope Benedict is a typical Bavarian, then I'd say thats pretty different than most of Germany. I assume the small towns and countryside in that lander are even more conservative than Munich (shudder!)

[CO-OWL]

Those are some of the lowest birth rates I've ever seen. There's no variation between the lander. I thought Bavaria would have been higher because of its unique conservative nature, but their birth rate (9 per thousand) is below any of the 50 states. Vermont and Maine are about 11 per thousand, while Utah () is at 22 per thousand, nearly as high as India.

There's some variation between different regions. In 2003 the range was from 11.4 per thousand in Cloppenburg-Vechta (Lower Saxony, rural, Catholic) to abysmal 6.2 in Anhalt (Saxony-Anhalt).

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahl2005/onlineatlas/btwClientKarte.htm gives maps and data for the 2005 electoral districts, but unfortunately it's only in German.
You have to choose:
Sachgebiet: Bevölkerung (population)
Merkmal: Geburtenrate (birth rate)

[Tender Branson]

Did you know they are planning a big population Census in Germany in 2010 or 2011 ? I think it´s really time for it because the last one was done in 1987 in the former West Germany and I think before 1980 in East Germany. There have been many changes in the last 25-30 years i suppose with the reunification and the population could currently be anywhere between 75 and 85 million people. You really need to conduct one in the coming years

[Cubby]

Did you know they are planning a big population Census in Germany in 2010 or 2011 ? I think it´s really time for it because the last one was done in 1987 in the former West Germany and I think before 1980 in East Germany. There have been many changes in the last 25-30 years i suppose with the reunification and the population could currently be anywhere between 75 and 85 million people. You really need to conduct one in the coming years

Russia did the same thing, they had a census in 1989, then it took them 13 years before they finally took another one in 2002. I think in these 2 countries the delay might be political. It must be a bad feeling to see that your country is losing population, and the governments don't want to cause anymore anxiety in these places.

[minionofmidas]

Did you know they are planning a big population Census in Germany in 2010 or 2011 ? I think it´s really time for it because the last one was done in 1987 in the former West Germany and I think before 1980 in East Germany. There have been many changes in the last 25-30 years i suppose with the reunification and the population could currently be anywhere between 75 and 85 million people. You really need to conduct one in the coming years

Russia did the same thing, they had a census in 1989, then it took them 13 years before they finally took another one in 2002. I think in these 2 countries the delay might be political. It must be a bad feeling to see that your country is losing population, and the governments don't want to cause anymore anxiety in these places.

No, nowt like that. Remember that both countries have compulsory passports with addresses on, so we have a very good idea of the size of the population and its distribution without recourse to such a barbaric (and error-prone) device as a census. A census from time to time just serves to see how many people are falsely registered in places where they aren't actually living, as well as stuff on what kind of houses do people live in etc. Also, 13 years is not really relevantly longer than the US' 10.
Back in the Kaiserreich, Germany held a census every five years, the last one in 1910. Ever since, there has not been a regular pattern. We held censi in 1925, 1933, 1939, 1950, 1961, 1971 and 1987 after that (West Germany from 1950 - I think East Germany got back on a regular censustaking date.)
The 1987 census was extremely controversial, and was delayed due to court cases for two years - which ended in very strict guidelines on data confidentiality, and some questions struck. Ever since, no government has bothered to pick another fight with the population over such an irrelevant issue.

[Tender Branson]

Did you know they are planning a big population Census in Germany in 2010 or 2011 ? I think it´s really time for it because the last one was done in 1987 in the former West Germany and I think before 1980 in East Germany. There have been many changes in the last 25-30 years i suppose with the reunification and the population could currently be anywhere between 75 and 85 million people. You really need to conduct one in the coming years

Russia did the same thing, they had a census in 1989, then it took them 13 years before they finally took another one in 2002. I think in these 2 countries the delay might be political. It must be a bad feeling to see that your country is losing population, and the governments don't want to cause anymore anxiety in these places.

No, nowt like that. Remember that both countries have compulsory passports with addresses on, so we have a very good idea of the size of the population and its distribution without recourse to such a barbaric (and error-prone) device as a census. A census from time to time just serves to see how many people are falsely registered in places where they aren't actually living, as well as stuff on what kind of houses do people live in etc. Also, 13 years is not really relevantly longer than the US' 10.
Back in the Kaiserreich, Germany held a census every five years, the last one in 1910. Ever since, there has not been a regular pattern. We held censi in 1925, 1933, 1939, 1950, 1961, 1971 and 1987 after that (West Germany from 1950 - I think East Germany got back on a regular censustaking date.)
The 1987 census was extremely controversial, and was delayed due to court cases for two years - which ended in very strict guidelines on data confidentiality, and some questions struck. Ever since, no government has bothered to pick another fight with the population over such an irrelevant issue.

In Austria the last census was in 2001 and the estimates there were also different to the count. They predicted it to be 8,2 Mio. but it turned out to be 8,03 mio. Between 1981 and 1991 there was 0,3% growth annually as was in the 1991-2001 timespan. But from 2001-2006 the estimates show our pop. grow to 8,28 Mio. This is more than double the rate over the 1981-2001 period. In Italy the predicted 58 or 59 Mio. for the 01 census, and it was slightly lower than 57 Mio. Between the 1991 and 01 census Italy´s population stagnated and now, accroding to their estimates it should again be 59 Mio. after just 5 years. I just think while Austria and Italy for example are maybe overestimating their population growth, the US might underestimate it. I think a regular census is neccessary and also most statisticians are saying it, because it provides data on how much schools you need to build, gives you data on the state perequation for example in Germany etc. Sure they don´t have to ask how many pets you have at home or how often you use the toilet etc., then i think people get angry about a census and sue the state, but if they would only ask the basics like age, income, persons in the household (i know i´m not an expert) it would certainly be more comfortable for the people and cheaper.

[minionofmidas]

From what I know of the faults of the system here, the chief reason for overcount in Italy and Austria is probably counting of immigrants or seasonal labourers when they arrive, but not noticing when they leave again.

[Tender Branson]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Growing with 0,2% annualy right now

[WMS]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Growing with 0,2% annualy right now

Note Lewis' original trend map, pal

[minionofmidas]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Growing with 0,2% annualy right now

Note Lewis' original trend map, pal

Notice the borders of Bavaria, pal

[WMS]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Growing with 0,2% annualy right now

Note Lewis' original trend map, pal

Notice the borders of Bavaria, pal

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Upper Bavaria, that is.

Funny how you failed to mention that before

[minionofmidas]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Growing with 0,2% annualy right now

Note Lewis' original trend map, pal

Notice the borders of Bavaria, pal

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Upper Bavaria, that is.

Funny how you failed to mention that before

It seemed necessary to do again as your wrong statement kept being quoted.

[WMS]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Growing with 0,2% annualy right now

Note Lewis' original trend map, pal

Notice the borders of Bavaria, pal

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Upper Bavaria, that is.

Funny how you failed to mention that before

It seemed necessary to do again as your wrong statement kept being quoted.

I thought the thread was dead...somebody else brought it up again

[minionofmidas]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Growing with 0,2% annualy right now

Note Lewis' original trend map, pal

Notice the borders of Bavaria, pal

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Upper Bavaria, that is.

Funny how you failed to mention that before

It seemed necessary to do again as your wrong statement kept being quoted.

I thought the thread was dead...somebody else brought it up again

So you're refusing to take responsibility for the effects of your words?

[WMS]

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Growing with 0,2% annualy right now

Note Lewis' original trend map, pal

Notice the borders of Bavaria, pal

I see Bavaria is expecting some high future growth.

Upper Bavaria, that is.

Funny how you failed to mention that before

It seemed necessary to do again as your wrong statement kept being quoted.

I thought the thread was dead...somebody else brought it up again

So you're refusing to take responsibility for the effects of your words?

Somebody has to refuse to do that, damnit! Where would we be if people took responsibility for things!