Illinois gubernatorial primaries

[HardRCafé]

One week away, and no discussion?

[muon2]

There are two polls from major newspapers out in the few days. On Saturday the St Lous Post-Dispatch polled the race as follows:

Democrats
Rod Blagojevich 61%       
Edwin Eisendrath 26%       
Undecided  13%

Republicans
Judy Baar Topinka 36%
Jim Oberweis 25%
Ron Gidwitz 19%
Bill Brady 11%
Andy Martin 1%
Undecided  8%

The Chicago Tribune released its poll this morning:
 
Democrats
Rod Blagojevich 67%       
Edwin Eisendrath 18%       
Undecided  14%

Republicans
Judy Baar Topinka 36%
Jim Oberweis 21%
Bill Brady 15%
Ron Gidwitz 9%
Andy Martin 1%
Undecided  18%

Except for the place swap between Brady and Gidwitz, the numbers in both races look very consistent in the two polls.

One big debate in conservative circles is on the relative viability of Oberweis and Brady, the two candidates appealing to the conservative base. Some look at the polls and would like to see Brady move his votes to Oberweis putting together a plurality win. On the other side, some feel that Brady is more electable in the fall, and the polls understate the proportion of the vote outside of Chicagoland where Brady runs strong.

[ill ind]

My prediciton for one week from today

Democratic

Blagojevich 72%
Eisendrath 28%

Republican

Baar-Topinka 41%
Oberweis 25%
Brady 21%
Gidwitz 12%
Martin 1%

We'll see how close I come

Anyone else outh there care to predict??

[PBrunsel]

All I can wager is that the GOP Primary for Lt. Governor is becoming a fight between Conservaties and Ryanites. Sandy Wegman (representing the Right to Life League) is the Conservative running against Steve Rauchenberger, the Ryanite and a forme member of his defense team. This one race may well decide the direction of the Illinois GOP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No hope for Eisendrath?

[PBrunsel]

No hope for Eisendrath?

Against Dick Mell's Chicago Machine, of course not!

[nclib]

On the other side, some feel that Brady is more electable in the fall, and the polls understate the proportion of the vote outside of Chicagoland where Brady runs strong.

Are you saying Brady runs strong inside or outside Chicagoland?

[muon2]

On the other side, some feel that Brady is more electable in the fall, and the polls understate the proportion of the vote outside of Chicagoland where Brady runs strong.

Are you saying Brady runs strong inside or outside Chicagoland?

Brady is the only candidate from outside Chicagoland, and his greatest strength lies outside Chicagoland as well. When polling IL it is often hard to get the right mix of Chicago/Suburban Cook/Collar Suburbs/Downstate.

[HardRCafé]

Blagojevich 73%
Eisendrath 27%

Topinka 39%
Oberweis 32%
Brady 15%
Gidwitz 13%
Martin 1%

Birkett 54%
Rauschenberger 42%
Wegman 3%
Bruckner 1%

[minionofmidas]

There is a runoff if noone wins a majority IIRC?

[muon2]

There is a runoff if noone wins a majority IIRC?

No runoffs in IL, the top vote gets the nomination. The strategy becomes very interesting in races with three or more candidates. If two are strong everyone tries to identify which candidate loses votes to which weaker candidates. A strong second place candidate may campaign against a weaker one in third to convince their supporters to jump and pass up the front runner.

Oberweis has used this in combination with attacks on the front running Topinka. Oberweis (or his supporters) have suggested mechanisms to get the field reduced, including an offer to draw straws.

[HardRCafé]

Only three people predicting?

[muon2]

The latest twist in the gubernatorial primary is the weather. There is a major snowstorm tonight and Tuesday in central IL. This is Brady's home area, but it's also former Gov. Edgar's area, and he's been stumping for Topinka. Of course, both candidates say their voters are committed and will get to the polls. This is on top of previous predictions for record low turnout.

[Keystone Phil]

Early returns - 14% reporting

Topinka - 35%
Oberweis - 33%
Brady - 19%
Others - 11%

Blagojevich - 70%
Eisendrath - 30%


http://abclocal.go.com/wls/news/elections/primary2006?office=G

[TheresNoMoney]

The IL-06 Democratic primary is the most intriguing race.

Topinka and Blagojevich will easly win their primaries.

[Sam Spade]

IL-08 Rep. primary - Looks like David McSweeney gets to face Melissa Bean in November. 

73.6% of precincts reporting
David  McSweeney   17,108 41.0%
Kathy  Salvi   13,301 31.9%
Robert  Churchill   7,840 18.8%
Aaron  Lincoln   1,920 4.6%
Ken  Arnold   896 2.1%
James  Mitchell   630 1.5%

IL-06 Dem. primary - Still early in returns.  Winner gets State Senator Peter Roskam.

25.7% of precincts reporting
Tammy  Duckworth   3,982 43.9%
Christine  Cegelis   3,602 39.7%
Lindy  Scott   1,495 16.5%
 
GOP Gov. primary - Topinka appears head towards victory.

48.3% of precincts reporting
Baar Topinka 144,516 37.1%
Oberweis 125,890 32.3%
Brady 74,473 19.1%
Gidwitz 41,566 10.7%
Martin 3,237 0.8%

[Keystone Phil]

GOP Gov. primary - Still looks like a runoff to me between Oberweis and Topinka.

There is a runoff if noone wins a majority IIRC?

No runoffs in IL, the top vote gets the nomination.

[Sam Spade]

GOP Gov. primary - Still looks like a runoff to me between Oberweis and Topinka.

There is a runoff if noone wins a majority IIRC?

No runoffs in IL, the top vote gets the nomination.

No, I know.  I corrected that in my above post right after I remembered it. 

Not transitioning to Illinois politics very well, eh..

[Sam Spade]

Down to the wire in IL-06 Dem. primary:

455 of 526 precincts reporting (87%)
Tammy Duckworth 12,143 43%
Christine Cegelis 11,605 41%
Lindy Scott 4,527 16%

[nini2287]

Do you have a link to the results?

[Sam Spade]

Do you have a link to the results?

Sorry, I missed the post last night.

Anyway, Duckworth is the nominee winning with a vote of 44% to 40.9% roughly over Cegelis.

The most entertaining race now is the Cook County Board President's race, where the vote counting is still ongoing.

[muon2]

Do you have a link to the results?

Sorry, I missed the post last night.

Anyway, Duckworth is the nominee winning with a vote of 44% to 40.9% roughly over Cegelis.

The most entertaining race now is the Cook County Board President's race, where the vote counting is still ongoing.

State and federal election law changes last year caused wholesale chnges in the voting machines and procedures at this primary. Computer problems held up DuPage results affecting the 6th CD for a couple hours last night. Cellular data transmission did in the Cook results, so they were suspended until this afternoon to complete the County Board President race.