NOAA Forecasts Stormy and Intense 2020 Hurricane Season

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NOAA hurricane forecast warns of a very active season ahead



Also, we should be nearing the end of this active above-normal hurricane cycle since it typically lasts between 20 to 25 years, and this one began in 1995:

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Here's Tropical Storm Cristobal's latest track, which is a beeline for the Louisiana gulf coast:

Tropical Storm Cristobal expected to weaken then restrengthen as it moves north over the Gulf of Mexico

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Cristobal is predicted to make landfall on the Louisiana coast as a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon:

Tropical Storm Cristobal's impacts in south Louisiana: rain, surge, wind starting tonight

The eye of Tropical Storm Cristobal remains on a path to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast near Houma just after 1 p.m. Sunday. But the storm's three key threats -- life-threatening rainfall, top winds of 60 mph, and storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above ground -- could begin arriving along the northern Gulf Coast well away from the storm by 8 p.m. Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storm warnings are in place from Intracoastal City in Vermilion Parish to just east of Fort Walton Beach, Fla., including the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas and Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas.

A storm surge warning is in effect along the coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Fla., including Lake Borgne. A storm surge watch is in effect from the Mississippi to just east of Morgan City.

 

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So we have two hurricanes (or at least what will be two hurricanes) to focus on:

First of all Hanna -it is forecast to hit south Texas (and then northeastern Mexico) as a category 1 hurricane.  If it sits in the Gulf over a longer period of time, it could get much stronger:

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And then there is Hurricane Douglas (currently a Category 2) out in the eastern Pacific that will impact Hawaii (a rarity for the islands), though thankfully only as a Category 1 by the time it gets there:

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The island of Oahu is now under a hurricane warning:

Hurricane warning issued for Oahu as Douglas moves toward Hawaii

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The island of Oahu is now under a hurricane warning:

Hurricane warning issued for Oahu as Douglas moves toward Hawaii

With the big exception of the Big Island, all of the Hawaiian islands are now under a hurricane warning, and there is a possibility Hurricane Douglas (which has been downgraded to a Category 1) could make landfall on the island of Oahu early Monday morning:

Hurricane Warnings Issued as Douglas Tracks Near the Hawaiian Islands



From the Honolulu Star Advertiser

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92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.

It now has a 90% chance of developing into a major storm within the week, and if it does, it will become Tropical Depression Isaias.  Although the track now has it heading in much the same general direction as its fizzled predecessor Gonzalo. 

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92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.

It now has a 90% chance of developing into a major storm within the week, and if it does, it will become Tropical Depression Isaias.  Although the track now has it heading in much the same general direction as its fizzled predecessor Gonzalo. 

This one isn't quite going the same way as Gonzalo. According to forecast tracks, it's headed for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the East Coast of the U.S (maybe the Carolinas/Long Island/New England) in the long term.

This one seems more likely to strengthen significantly, especially if it manages to stay to to the north of Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

This one could be the first major hurricane of the Atlantic Season.

You don't know that for certain.  No one does at this point. 



source

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It's about to get even worse:

Weather experts issue most threatening hurricane forecast yet

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is racking up storms at breakneck speed. To date, the season is about two weeks ahead of record pace and it's only one third of the way through. On Wednesday, the news became more concerning as the research team at Colorado State University (CSU) — the standard bearer for seasonal forecasts — released the most dire forecast in their 37-year history.

Labeling the 2020 hurricane season "extremely active," the team is now predicting 24 named storms, including 12 total hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes — each figure about double that of a normal season. If the forecast proves accurate, 2020 would be the second most active Atlantic hurricane season, behind only the record-shattering 2005 season which brought Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma.

(...) In addition, CSU is forecasting a 75% chance that the U.S. coast will be struck by a major hurricane — Category 3 or greater — during the 2020 season. This is significant because damage increases exponentially with wind speed. Category 3, 4 and 5 systems cause 85% of all hurricane damage.

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Hurricane Zeta made landfall as a strong Category 2 (just short of Cat 3) south of New Orleans, and is speeding through the Deep South states of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tomorrow before exiting out through the mid-Atlantic region ahead of a strong cold front just in time for Halloween and All Saints' Day.  

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Hurricane Eta is a strong category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds (a little more strengthening and it could make cat 5) that will make landfall in Nicaragua:

Eta Intensifies Into a Category 4 Hurricane Ahead of Catastrophic Hit to Central America







It could experience a rebirth once it re-enters the Caribbean Sea, and once it does, Cuba will be in the crosshairs.