NOAA Forecasts Stormy and Intense 2020 Hurricane Season
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  NOAA Forecasts Stormy and Intense 2020 Hurricane Season
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Author Topic: NOAA Forecasts Stormy and Intense 2020 Hurricane Season  (Read 3629 times)
Frodo
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« on: May 31, 2020, 10:29:02 PM »
« edited: May 31, 2020, 10:32:33 PM by Virginia Yellow Dog »

NOAA hurricane forecast warns of a very active season ahead



Also, we should be nearing the end of this active above-normal hurricane cycle since it typically lasts between 20 to 25 years, and this one began in 1995:

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2020, 10:17:30 AM »

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Frodo
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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2020, 06:25:19 PM »

Here's Tropical Storm Cristobal's latest track, which is a beeline for the Louisiana gulf coast:

Tropical Storm Cristobal expected to weaken then restrengthen as it moves north over the Gulf of Mexico

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Frodo
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« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2020, 11:40:21 AM »

Cristobal is predicted to make landfall on the Louisiana coast as a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon:

Tropical Storm Cristobal's impacts in south Louisiana: rain, surge, wind starting tonight



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The eye of Tropical Storm Cristobal remains on a path to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast near Houma just after 1 p.m. Sunday. But the storm's three key threats -- life-threatening rainfall, top winds of 60 mph, and storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above ground -- could begin arriving along the northern Gulf Coast well away from the storm by 8 p.m. Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storm warnings are in place from Intracoastal City in Vermilion Parish to just east of Fort Walton Beach, Fla., including the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas and Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas.

A storm surge warning is in effect along the coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Fla., including Lake Borgne. A storm surge watch is in effect from the Mississippi to just east of Morgan City.
 
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Frodo
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2020, 01:33:42 AM »

So we have two hurricanes (or at least what will be two hurricanes) to focus on:




First of all Hanna -it is forecast to hit south Texas (and then northeastern Mexico) as a category 1 hurricane.  If it sits in the Gulf over a longer period of time, it could get much stronger:













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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2020, 01:37:31 AM »

So we have two hurricanes (or at least what will be two hurricanes) to focus on:



First of all Hanna -it is forecast to hit south Texas (and then northeastern Mexico) as a category 1 hurricane.  If it sits in the Gulf over a longer period of time, it could get much stronger:















Gonzalo won't be a Hurricane.

Out in the Pacific, there's Douglas, which likely will make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2020, 01:40:37 AM »
« Edited: July 25, 2020, 05:37:53 PM by Virginia Yellow Dog »

And then there is Hurricane Douglas (currently a Category 2) out in the eastern Pacific that will impact Hawaii (a rarity for the islands), though thankfully only as a Category 1 by the time it gets there:







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Frodo
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2020, 04:37:51 PM »

The island of Oahu is now under a hurricane warning:

Hurricane warning issued for Oahu as Douglas moves toward Hawaii

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2020, 06:16:41 PM »

There was a week straight here in New Jersey earlier in the month where there was a somewhat severe thunderstorm nearly every day, one of them featured ping-pong ball sized hail! And when we aren't having those it's been unbearably hot and humid, more so than usual. Is my state's climate becoming Florida's for two or three months out of the year? Is severe weather really what the entire country needs on top of every other fiasco we're dealing with?
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2020, 08:04:19 PM »



92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.
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Frodo
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2020, 03:49:56 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2020, 03:57:40 PM by Virginia Yellow Dog »


With the big exception of the Big Island, all of the Hawaiian islands are now under a hurricane warning, and there is a possibility Hurricane Douglas (which has been downgraded to a Category 1) could make landfall on the island of Oahu early Monday morning:

Hurricane Warnings Issued as Douglas Tracks Near the Hawaiian Islands



From the Honolulu Star Advertiser
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Frodo
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« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2020, 10:04:15 PM »



92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.

It now has a 90% chance of developing into a major storm within the week, and if it does, it will become Tropical Depression Isaias.  Although the track now has it heading in much the same general direction as its fizzled predecessor Gonzalo. 
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2020, 10:09:59 PM »



92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.

It now has a 90% chance of developing into a major storm within the week, and if it does, it will become Tropical Depression Isaias.  Although the track now has it heading in much the same general direction as its fizzled predecessor Gonzalo. 


This one isn't quite going the same way as Gonzalo. According to forecast tracks, it's headed for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the East Coast of the U.S (maybe the Carolinas/Long Island/New England) in the long term.

This one seems more likely to strengthen significantly, especially if it manages to stay to to the north of Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

This one could be the first major hurricane of the Atlantic Season.
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Frodo
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2020, 10:23:42 PM »



92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.

It now has a 90% chance of developing into a major storm within the week, and if it does, it will become Tropical Depression Isaias.  Although the track now has it heading in much the same general direction as its fizzled predecessor Gonzalo. 


This one isn't quite going the same way as Gonzalo. According to forecast tracks, it's headed for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the East Coast of the U.S (maybe the Carolinas/Long Island/New England) in the long term.

This one seems more likely to strengthen significantly, especially if it manages to stay to to the north of Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

This one could be the first major hurricane of the Atlantic Season.

You don't know that for certain.  No one does at this point. 



source

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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2020, 10:28:42 PM »



92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.

It now has a 90% chance of developing into a major storm within the week, and if it does, it will become Tropical Depression Isaias.  Although the track now has it heading in much the same general direction as its fizzled predecessor Gonzalo. 


This one isn't quite going the same way as Gonzalo. According to forecast tracks, it's headed for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the East Coast of the U.S (maybe the Carolinas/Long Island/New England) in the long term.

This one seems more likely to strengthen significantly, especially if it manages to stay to to the north of Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

This one could be the first major hurricane of the Atlantic Season.

You don't know that for certain.  No one does at this point. 



source



You're right, I don't know that for certain.

But the models in the map you put up all have this invest at or near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, meaning the more northerly track.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2020, 10:34:15 PM »

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-07-28-potential-tropical-storm-isaias-forecast


We now have Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are up for the Leeward Islands, the U.S Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and parts of the Turks and Caicos.

In addition, Florida, is smack dab in the middle of the "cone of uncertainty".

Assuming this storm survives Puerto Rico and the trip over Hispanola, it would likely make to Florida as a Tropical storm this weekend, according to current forecasts.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2020, 11:06:39 PM »

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-07-29-potential-tropical-storm-isaias-forecast-florida-caribbean

We officially have Tropical Storm Isaias.

Forecasts currently have it crossing the Dominican Republic and Haiti tomorrow and passing through the Bahamas, staying just off the Florida coast or making landfall there on Saturday, and moving up the East Coast, and grazing/hitting the Carolinas.

Currently, think Dorian, but a lot weaker.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2020, 01:06:31 PM »



Storm 10 and 11 are ready to form.
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KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2020, 05:27:55 AM »

something something 2020 give me recommendations
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Frodo
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« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2020, 01:21:43 AM »

It's about to get even worse:

Weather experts issue most threatening hurricane forecast yet

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is racking up storms at breakneck speed. To date, the season is about two weeks ahead of record pace and it's only one third of the way through. On Wednesday, the news became more concerning as the research team at Colorado State University (CSU) — the standard bearer for seasonal forecasts — released the most dire forecast in their 37-year history.

Labeling the 2020 hurricane season "extremely active," the team is now predicting 24 named storms, including 12 total hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes — each figure about double that of a normal season. If the forecast proves accurate, 2020 would be the second most active Atlantic hurricane season, behind only the record-shattering 2005 season which brought Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma.

(...) In addition, CSU is forecasting a 75% chance that the U.S. coast will be struck by a major hurricane — Category 3 or greater — during the 2020 season. This is significant because damage increases exponentially with wind speed. Category 3, 4 and 5 systems cause 85% of all hurricane damage.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2020, 03:24:20 PM »

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/180613.shtml?cone#contents

Florida is in the cone, and if the storm makes landfall, it is forecast to do so as a hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/173426.shtml?cone#contents

The Texas and Louisiana Coasts are in the cone at this point and landfalls are forecast there and at the Yucatan Peninsula at Tropical Storm strength.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/173426.shtml?radii#contents
There are already Tropical Storm Warnings up for large sections of the Honduras coastline.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2020, 04:30:51 AM »

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Hurricane Laura less than 24 hours from landfall, somewhere in the Lake Charles/Beaumont/Port Arthur area.

Laura is forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall.

Any posters from Shreveport, to Galveston, to Baton Rouge to New Orleans needs to stay safe out there.

If you can evacuate, please do so now, especially if you are anywhere near Lake Charles/Beaumont/Port Arthur.
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TWTown
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« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2020, 07:06:49 AM »

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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2020, 07:23:47 AM »

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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2020, 07:39:43 AM »

If anyone's paying attention to Laura's track as it approaches it the coast, projected landfall intensity, and projected landfall location (Louisana/Texas border- General area of Lake Charles/Beaumont/Port Arthur), is eerily reminiscent of Hurricane Rita, fifteen years ago.
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