NOAA Forecasts Stormy and Intense 2020 Hurricane Season

[NewYorkExpress]

So we have two hurricanes (or at least what will be two hurricanes) to focus on:

First of all Hanna -it is forecast to hit south Texas (and then northeastern Mexico) as a category 1 hurricane.  If it sits in the Gulf over a longer period of time, it could get much stronger:

Gonzalo won't be a Hurricane.

Out in the Pacific, there's Douglas, which likely will make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane.

[NewYorkExpress]

92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.

It now has a 90% chance of developing into a major storm within the week, and if it does, it will become Tropical Depression Isaias.  Although the track now has it heading in much the same general direction as its fizzled predecessor Gonzalo. 

This one isn't quite going the same way as Gonzalo. According to forecast tracks, it's headed for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the East Coast of the U.S (maybe the Carolinas/Long Island/New England) in the long term.

This one seems more likely to strengthen significantly, especially if it manages to stay to to the north of Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

This one could be the first major hurricane of the Atlantic Season.

[NewYorkExpress]

92L Spaghetti models (now up to a 50/80% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days) are in decent agreement over the next several days. Euro and GFS Ensembles both suggest it could be a threat to the east coast. 18Z GFS hit North Carolina but 10 days out = likely won't hit there. Worth watching for folks on the east coast however.

It now has a 90% chance of developing into a major storm within the week, and if it does, it will become Tropical Depression Isaias.  Although the track now has it heading in much the same general direction as its fizzled predecessor Gonzalo. 

This one isn't quite going the same way as Gonzalo. According to forecast tracks, it's headed for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the East Coast of the U.S (maybe the Carolinas/Long Island/New England) in the long term.

This one seems more likely to strengthen significantly, especially if it manages to stay to to the north of Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

This one could be the first major hurricane of the Atlantic Season.

You don't know that for certain.  No one does at this point. 



source

You're right, I don't know that for certain.

But the models in the map you put up all have this invest at or near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, meaning the more northerly track.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-07-28-potential-tropical-storm-isaias-forecast


We now have Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are up for the Leeward Islands, the U.S Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and parts of the Turks and Caicos.

In addition, Florida, is smack dab in the middle of the "cone of uncertainty".

Assuming this storm survives Puerto Rico and the trip over Hispanola, it would likely make to Florida as a Tropical storm this weekend, according to current forecasts.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-07-29-potential-tropical-storm-isaias-forecast-florida-caribbean

We officially have Tropical Storm Isaias.

Forecasts currently have it crossing the Dominican Republic and Haiti tomorrow and passing through the Bahamas, staying just off the Florida coast or making landfall there on Saturday, and moving up the East Coast, and grazing/hitting the Carolinas.

Currently, think Dorian, but a lot weaker.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/180613.shtml?cone#contents

Florida is in the cone, and if the storm makes landfall, it is forecast to do so as a hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/173426.shtml?cone#contents

The Texas and Louisiana Coasts are in the cone at this point and landfalls are forecast there and at the Yucatan Peninsula at Tropical Storm strength.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/173426.shtml?radii#contents
There are already Tropical Storm Warnings up for large sections of the Honduras coastline.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Hurricane Laura less than 24 hours from landfall, somewhere in the Lake Charles/Beaumont/Port Arthur area.

Laura is forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall.

Any posters from Shreveport, to Galveston, to Baton Rouge to New Orleans needs to stay safe out there.

If you can evacuate, please do so now, especially if you are anywhere near Lake Charles/Beaumont/Port Arthur.

[NewYorkExpress]

If anyone's paying attention to Laura's track as it approaches it the coast, projected landfall intensity, and projected landfall location (Louisana/Texas border- General area of Lake Charles/Beaumont/Port Arthur), is eerily reminiscent of Hurricane Rita, fifteen years ago.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/262342.shtml?

Laura has 150 miles per hour winds, and easily could be a Category 5 at landfall.

Storm surge is forecast to be twenty feet high at the location of landfall.

This scenario seems reminiscent of Hurricane Michael, just several hundred miles to the West.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think that the NHC is going to report 155 MPH winds but that it will be changed to a Cat 5 in the post-season analysis like with Michael a few years ago.  Regardless, this isn't a good situation to say the least.

That does seem like the most likely scenario.

Do we have any posters (current or former) who live over there?

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/270253.shtml?

Hurricane Laura is just 75 miles away from Lake Charles/Port Arthur.

Winds still at 150 MPH, and the pressure is holding steady. It's still at 939 MB.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/270354.shtml?

Laura just 60 miles from Lake Charles.

Winds remain 150 Miles Per Hour.

Pressure dropped another Millibar, down to 938 Millibars. It's still strengthening.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/270456.shtml?

Hurricane Laura's Eyewall has reached the Southwest Louisiana coast.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/270558.shtml?

Hurricane Laura has made landfall as a Category 4 storm with 150 MPH winds near Cameron Louisiana.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/040002.shtml?gm_track#contents

Tropical Storm Sally approaching the Louisiana Coast, and is projected to make landfall as a hurricane, and dump over twenty inches of rain at the coast.

Everyone from roughly the Alabama/Mississippi line to to Morgan City, Louisiana is under a Hurricane Watch or Warning. This, I believe includes New Orleans.

Any posters in this area should take extreme caution, especially if you are in New Orleans.

[NewYorkExpress]

And we've gone Greek

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

And it's in the process of making landfall in Portugal of all places.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-09-18-tropical-storm-hurricane-beta-gulf-of-mexico-texas

And then we have Tropical Storm Beta.

And the scary thing is, there's still almost two months left in the season.

We could end up at least halfway through the Greek Alphabet.

[NewYorkExpress]

Is there even protocol if god forbid we managed to get all the way through the greek alphabet? Wouldn't be out of character for this year. We're definitely getting a record for the number of named storms, but how many will we get?

There doesn't appear to be any protocol for running out of names in the Greek Alphabet.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/022034.shtml?

We now have Tropical Depression 25, and a likely Tropical Storm Gamma, just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. There are Tropical Storm Warnings up for areas that include Cancun, Playa Del Carmen and Cozumel.

[NewYorkExpress]

Still wondering what the protocol is if we run out of names in the Greek alphabet. We still have almost two months of the season left to go, remember.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/042055.shtml?

Potential Cyclone 26 has formed in the Western Caribbean. It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Delta and eventually Hurricane Delta.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/233230.shtml?cone#contents

It's currently forecast to make landfall somewhere between the Florida/Alabama line, and the Louisiana/Border by Friday, as a Hurricane.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/050233.shtml

And then there was Tropical Depression 26.

Forecast to be Tropical Storm Delta by early tomorrow morning.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023600.shtml?cone#contents

The current forecast track has it moving directly over New Orleans as a Hurricane on Friday...but a lot could change by then.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145422.shtml?cone#contents

Tropical Storm Delta has officially been named.

It's still projected to be the third (fourth if you include Marco) storm this year to make landfall on the Gulf Coast, and third Hurricane.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/175044.shtml?gm_track#contents

Hurricane Delta now a Category 4 hurricane. It's expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula at or near Cancun, enter the Gulf of Mexico, weaken somewhat, and make landfall in central Louisiana.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-10-07-hurricane-delta-forecast-us-gulf-coast-yucatan-peninsula-0

Hurricane Delta now in the Gulf of Mexico after landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. It's weakened to a category one storm, but it is still dangerous.

Hurricane warnings are up from the Texas/Louisiana Border, to Morgan City, Louisiana. This includes Lake Charles, battered just a few months ago by Hurricane Laura.