Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began

[ProudModerate2]

Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began.
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN.

... There were more than 40 national public polls taken at least partially in the month of May that asked about the Biden-Trump matchup. Biden led in every single one of them. He's the first challenger to be ahead of the incumbent in every May poll since Jimmy Carter did so in 1976. Carter, of course, won the 1976 election. Biden's the only challenger to have the advantage in every May poll over an elected incumbent in the polling era.

... Biden hasn't trailed Trump this entire year in a single telephone poll in which at least some voters were reached via their cell phones -- historically the most accurate. The ABC News/Washington Post poll is the latest example of these polls. In fact, Biden's never been behind in any of these polls since at least January 2019. No other challenger has come close to that mark.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/05/31/politics/biden-maintains-strong-position/index.html

The entire article is not very lengthy.
It's very interesting.
I would encourage you to read the balance of the analysis. Click link above.

[President Johnson]

Fully agree with the analysis here. Trump is one of the weakest incumbents of recent memory, at least since 1992, probably 1980. He barely won last time around by 77,000 votes in three states, yet he has done nothing to expand his voter coalition. Actually the opposite is the case, just take a look at critical suburbs where his brand of Republican politics has become toxic since he took office. Especially suburban women are turned off by Trump and elected mainstream Democrats in 2018. Many of these suburbs are in swing states like as Arizona, or have moved somewhat competitive states from a few years ago, such as Virginia, into solid blue territory. In addition to that, Trump's voter coalition is shrinking through demographic changes. Now there is pandemic and his incompetence at full display. Trump was an underdog even before the virus arrived America, but his reelection prospects took another hit as a result of that.

The reason people reluctant to prematurely call a Trump defeat likely is because nobody expected him to pull 2016 off. Many folks are still shocked by the fact a reality TV star, who is a pathological liar and uses salty language, could come even close to the Oval Office. However, that doesn't take two major factors in account: (1) No election is like the last one. 2020 is not 2016, just as 2016 wasn't 2012. 2016 results respresented a wish for change and blow up the system. Now these days, voters apparently have a desire for a stable and steady leader and are tired of the daily madness and drama out 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue; all the name calling, the infighting, the corruption and the race to the bottom. (2) Last time around, Trump was lucky by running against a historically unpopular candidate with a ton of baggage of which some was earned and the larger part the result of 25 year right-wing smear campaign. Joe Biden isn't a perfect candidate, but he's much stronger. And even his weaknesses can be seen as authenticity. A quality, that Hillary lacked in the eyes of many voters.

Of course, Trump can still get reelected if for some reason turnout among Democrats is depressed and his base turns out in droves. I mean, he's trying to energize his base by stoking up division and resentment. But even then, it will be popular vote loss and a bare few thousand votes in the right places, allowing him to squeeze out a bare Electoral College victory. It's possible after all, but not very likely.

[Blair]

A combination of the shock of 2016 & the absolutely laziness of people means that people will insist that Trump is fine & the events we see will boost him- in the same way 100 different events were suppose to stop the Democrats winning a house majority in 2018.

[ElectionsGuy]

The media is doing a really good job at inflating Democrats confidence again. Do not be surprised if this election is closer than you think. One of the biggest potential flaws in polling is determining a model of the likely voter electorate. If Republicans and R-leaning independents come out in larger numbers than what was forecasted in most polls, you could have a large polling discrepancy across the board that is even bigger than what happened in 2016 (maybe not for state polls, but who knows). This I think is why national polls in 2012 failed to predict the sheer margin for Obama. Obama's base turned out at larger rates than how the polls forecasted.

Liberals think that their voters are riled up to vote against Trump, moreso than Republican voters, but the same polling which shows Biden way ahead is also showing a large dropoff of Biden voters when you get down to the likeliest voters. This is why I think if there is a polling error, it will much more likely be Trump outperforming polls than Biden. People are right to be cautious, and constant pieces about how Trump's campaign is nervous or that Biden's lead is so large and consistent is doing nothing other than fueling relief and therefore some complacency among Democratic readers. Every Democrat should be nervous about 'another 2016' no matter how different the circumstances until they've successfully won a presidential election. Acting like your 10 points down no matter what is probably the right approach, for both sides (literally the case for the Trump campaign right now lol).

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The media is doing a really good job at inflating Democrats confidence again. Do not be surprised if this election is closer than you think. One of the biggest potential flaws in polling is determining a model of the likely voter electorate. If Republicans and R-leaning independents come out in larger numbers than what was forecasted in most polls, you could have a large polling discrepancy across the board that is even bigger than what happened in 2016 (maybe not for state polls, but who knows). This I think is why national polls in 2012 failed to predict the sheer margin for Obama. Obama's base turned out at larger rates than how the polls forecasted.

Liberals think that their voters are riled up to vote against Trump, moreso than Republican voters, but the same polling which shows Biden way ahead is also showing a large dropoff of Biden voters when you get down to the likeliest voters. This is why I think if there is a polling error, it will much more likely be Trump outperforming polls than Biden. People are right to be cautious, and constant pieces about how Trump's campaign is nervous or that Biden's lead is so large and consistent is doing nothing other than fueling relief and therefore some complacency among Democratic readers. Every Democrat should be nervous about 'another 2016' no matter how different the circumstances until they've successfully won a presidential election. Acting like your 10 points down no matter what is probably the right approach, for both sides (literally the case for the Trump campaign right now lol).

From what I gather, there isn’t so much a large drop off of Biden voters so much as an accounting for the “shy Trump” vote. Take for instance the ABC/Wash Post poll released yesterday.

Among all adults, Biden leads 53-40. But when the “certain to vote” screen is added his percentage barely drops (from 53 to 51, well within the margin-of-error) whilst Trump’s jumps a whopping 6 points from 40 to 46%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I do wonder how the protesters will affect Biden's polling, it's obviously too early to tell, I truly believe it's going to be a wash and it won't matter in the end.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I do wonder how the protesters will affect Biden's polling, it's obviously too early to tell, I truly believe it's going to be a wash and it won't matter in the end.

The two national polls from today showed Biden gaining. I don't know if there actually is a correlation there, but take it as you will.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I do wonder how the protesters will affect Biden's polling, it's obviously too early to tell, I truly believe it's going to be a wash and it won't matter in the end.

The two national polls from today showed Biden gaining. I don't know if there actually is a correlation there, but take it as you will.

I think it's still too early to tell, give it a week or two to see results. For now it seems the public is currently with the protesters, I just hope the rioters don't change that.

[Frodo]

I do wonder how the protesters will affect Biden's polling, it's obviously too early to tell, I truly believe it's going to be a wash and it won't matter in the end.

The two national polls from today showed Biden gaining. I don't know if there actually is a correlation there, but take it as you will.

I think it's still too early to tell, give it a week or two to see results. For now it seems the public is currently with the protesters, I just hope the rioters don't change that.

As far as public opinion goes, the indiscriminate violence of the police will cancel out the violence of rioters and looters, especially since we have video (thank you, social media) showing both.  I agree, it will be a wash. 

[darklordoftech]

I do wonder how the protesters will affect Biden's polling, it's obviously too early to tell, I truly believe it's going to be a wash and it won't matter in the end.

The two national polls from today showed Biden gaining. I don't know if there actually is a correlation there, but take it as you will.

I think it's still too early to tell, give it a week or two to see results. For now it seems the public is currently with the protesters, I just hope the rioters don't change that.

Biden could be the “Nixon” figure here. Biden, like Nixon, was VP when things were “normal” and is seen as a steady hand who knows how to fix things while Trump is seen as erratic and sympathetic to militant right-wingers.

[Frodo]

I do wonder how the protesters will affect Biden's polling, it's obviously too early to tell, I truly believe it's going to be a wash and it won't matter in the end.

The two national polls from today showed Biden gaining. I don't know if there actually is a correlation there, but take it as you will.

I think it's still too early to tell, give it a week or two to see results. For now it seems the public is currently with the protesters, I just hope the rioters don't change that.

Biden could be the “Nixon” figure here. Biden, like Nixon, was VP when things were “normal” and is seen as a steady hand who knows how to fix things while Trump is seen as erratic and sympathetic to militant right-wingers.

Mentioned this in another thread:

A different era to be sure, with some major details that need to be changed (swap the Vietnam War for the coronavirus), but overall I could see that Biden's acceptance speech will carry echoes of Nixon's.  Maybe even some choice quotes as well.  Just enough that people (especially the national media) will notice.  

[Progressive Pessimist]

I do wonder how the protesters will affect Biden's polling, it's obviously too early to tell, I truly believe it's going to be a wash and it won't matter in the end.

The two national polls from today showed Biden gaining. I don't know if there actually is a correlation there, but take it as you will.

I think it's still too early to tell, give it a week or two to see results. For now it seems the public is currently with the protesters, I just hope the rioters don't change that.

Biden could be the “Nixon” figure here. Biden, like Nixon, was VP when things were “normal” and is seen as a steady hand who knows how to fix things while Trump is seen as erratic and sympathetic to militant right-wingers.

Mentioned this in another thread:

A different era to be sure, with some major details that need to be changed (swap the Vietnam War for the coronavirus), but overall I could see that Biden's acceptance speech will carry echoes of Nixon's.  Maybe even some choice quotes as well.  Just enough that people (especially the national media) will notice.  

That's fairly ironic because, to my knowledge, Biden very much disliked Nixon. What a time to be alive!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I do wonder how the protesters will affect Biden's polling, it's obviously too early to tell, I truly believe it's going to be a wash and it won't matter in the end.

The two national polls from today showed Biden gaining. I don't know if there actually is a correlation there, but take it as you will.

I think it's still too early to tell, give it a week or two to see results. For now it seems the public is currently with the protesters, I just hope the rioters don't change that.

Biden could be the “Nixon” figure here. Biden, like Nixon, was VP when things were “normal” and is seen as a steady hand who knows how to fix things while Trump is seen as erratic and sympathetic to militant right-wingers.

Mentioned this in another thread:

A different era to be sure, with some major details that need to be changed (swap the Vietnam War for the coronavirus), but overall I could see that Biden's acceptance speech will carry echoes of Nixon's.  Maybe even some choice quotes as well.  Just enough that people (especially the national media) will notice.  

I could see Biden being the "Nixon" of this election, Trump's message right now is not resonating with anyone except his core base, Biden represents a time when things were more normal, Trump is representing chaos and uncertainty with coronavirus, civil unrest, and the economy.