ABC/Washington Post: Biden +10

[Gass3268]

Adults:

53 Biden
40 Trump

Registered Voters:

53% Biden
43% Trump

Certain to Vote (Not the same as a Likely Voter Screen):

51% Biden
46% Trump

Source

Before Labor Day it only makes sense to really follow the RV number, afterwards you go with the LV number (which is not what they are using here).

[Lisa's voting Biden]

"B-but Trump will rebound! Dems in dissarray! Economy! Rioters!"

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Was Biden +2 in March.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news

[Tender Branson]

This poll shows that Biden should probably pick a Latino VP candidate, not a Black one.

His favourable ratings are ca. 20 points below Hillary’s among Latinos ...

[Ferguson97]

Here's how Trump can still win

[Tender Branson]

Here's how Trump can still win

Biden +13 with adults, +10 with RV and „only“ +5 with certain voters is slightly concerning.

But considering that right now, people are not that engaged and the Biden crowd will only become fully motivated in the fall after Labor Day, even the 5% lead among certain voters looks very good for Biden right now.

[libertpaulian]

It's pretty clear Joe is in the driver's seat right now.  Opinions of him are mostly baked into the public consciousness, and I imagine only a *very* small pool of voters who could be persuaded to vote one way or the other.

[OkThen]

The most surprising part to me is that Biden manages +10 with RVs when Trump is at 45% approval...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1266948357978808320

Biden+17 among independents, same poll

Trump is completely finished if that's the case. Absolutely no way can you win when you're opponent is winning independents by 17 points.

[pbrower2a]

Was Biden +2 in March.

Adults:

53 Biden
40 Trump

Registered Voters:

53% Biden
43% Trump

Certain to Vote (Not the same as a Likely Voter Screen):

51% Biden
46% Trump

Source

Before Labor Day it only makes sense to really follow the RV number, afterwards you go with the LV number (which is not what they are using here).

Devastating shift.

Although Trump seems to do sort-of-OK among those who are certain that they will vote one way or another (46%, which is about what he got in 2016), the numbers go down for "registered voters" and "adults". In effect he gets his core voters but can count on nothing else.

That is how things go with a nominee whom the other side can successfully portray as a dangerrous extremist -- which is how LBJ's team  categorized Goldwater and how the Nixon team categorized McGovern.

Trump's core support is about 40% of the electorate, and that may be all that he gets in November. Such indicates an electoral collapse if so.  

[roxas11]

It's pretty clear Joe is in the driver's seat right now.  Opinions of him are mostly baked into the public consciousness, and I imagine only a *very* small pool of voters who could be persuaded to vote one way or the other.

agreed

At this point I feel very few people are undecided when it comes to have they feel about Biden or trump.

[SN2903]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

[Ferguson97]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

Come on, is literally anything ever bad for Trump to you?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

This seems unlikely if Biden is lagging behind Hillary among Latinos.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

Hillary won the popular vote by 2, not 10. There just aren't that many (((coastal liberals))) in this country.

This is not a good poll for Trump. Take the L and hope his numbers improve once the campaigns pick up steam.

[Gass3268]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

Trump has failed this week.

[Beet]

Reminder that Clinton led Trump by 12 points in a late June 2016 ABC News/Washington Post poll.

[Panda Express]

Reminder that Clinton led Trump by 12 points in a late June 2016 ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Trump led by 2 at this point in time in the ABC/WaPo in 2016. In fact the monthly results were

May - Trump+2
June - Clinton +12
July - Clinton +4
August - Clinton +8
September - Clinton +8
October - Clinton +4
November(Final) - Clinton +3

[Intell]

So for what im seeing the riots play into Biden's heal the nation rhetoric amongst moderates, and should hurt Trump

[Beet]

Reminder that Clinton led Trump by 12 points in a late June 2016 ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Trump led by 2 at this point in time in the ABC/WaPo in 2016. In fact the monthly results were

May - Trump+2
June - Clinton +12
July - Clinton +4
August - Clinton +8
September - Clinton +8
October - Clinton +4
November(Final) - Clinton +3

Nice try. You left out:

December 2015 - Clinton +6
March - Clinton +9

And the final was Clinton +2, not +3

In May, Trump 2016 got an artificial boost by locking up his party's nod while Clinton was still fighting with Sanders. Biden supporters are now using that comparison to try to make him look good. But the reality is, this number would not have looked out of place in 2016 at all.

[ON Progressive]

Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

I know you won't listen, but I'm going to do math for the people who actually will and prove why this wouldn't happen.

Let's assume vote totals are exactly the same as 2016. This wouldn't happen due to population growth and all, but it's nearly 1 AM and I don't feel like doing too much here. If you swing CA/NY by 10 (so Biden 66.73-26.62 in CA/Biden 64.01-31.52 in NY), this is what you get in those two states:

CA:
Biden 9,462,867
Trump 3,774,731

NY:
Biden 4,942,191
Trump 2,433,461

If literally nothing else changes from 2016 except these two states swinging by 10, this is what you get:

Biden 66,948,660 (48.99%)
Trump 61,889,676 (45.28%)

So a 3.71 point win in the national popular vote even with Biden winning by over 40 in California and by well over 30 in New York. Biden being up 10 solely on California and New York is basically impossible mathematically.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wait till next week after all these riots it will be much tighter. The likely voter is still only 5 pts. There is a huge enthusiasm gap where Trump voters are way more enthused that is also in this poll. Biden is probably running up margins in CA and NY but struggling in the swing states just like Hillary

African Americans are the most loyal Democrats, its gonna help with African American turnout and help with Abrams being selected as Veep

[Panda Express]

Reminder that Clinton led Trump by 12 points in a late June 2016 ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Trump led by 2 at this point in time in the ABC/WaPo in 2016. In fact the monthly results were

May - Trump+2
June - Clinton +12
July - Clinton +4
August - Clinton +8
September - Clinton +8
October - Clinton +4
November(Final) - Clinton +3

Nice try. You left out:

December 2015 - Clinton +6
March - Clinton +9

And the final was Clinton +2, not +3

In May, Trump 2016 got an artificial boost by locking up his party's nod while Clinton was still fighting with Sanders. Biden supporters are now using that comparison to try to make him look good. But the reality is, this number would not have looked out of place in 2016 at all.

“Nice try?” Uhh what?

The final ABC/WaPo poll done right before the election was Clinton +3

2016, as we all know and for obvious reasons, was volatile and had wild swings. My suspicion is that most of the opinions regarding Trump vs Biden are baked in at this point so we won’t see wild swings like we did in 2016. But we’ll just have to see, won’t we my perpetually worried amigo?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It looks bad for Daines, Rs were looking to hold onto MT, and with AZ, CO, ME and NC flipping, Senate, with MT, it's a 51 seat D clear majority

With a 5 to 8 pt lead Senate tilts Dem with ME going to Betsy Sweet