2008 polling compared to 2004 and 2000

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A typical recent poll has McCain 50%, Hillary 40%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2008_U.S._presidential_election

Let's compare to this time before the 2004 election.


Novemeber 2002 (earliest non Zogby poll): Bush 57% Kerry 29%
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen6.htm

Typical poll from early 1998: Bush 50% Gore 37%
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen2.htm

Enough said. Thanks to the right-wing media, the Republican always has a huge lead before the issues come up.

[tarheel-leftist85]

A typical recent poll has McCain 50%, Hillary 40%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2008_U.S._presidential_election

Let's compare to this time before the 2004 election.


Novemeber 2002 (earliest non Zogby poll): Bush 57% Kerry 29%
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen6.htm

Typical poll from early 1998: Bush 50% Gore 37%
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen2.htm

Enough said. Thanks to the right-wing media, the Republican always has a huge lead before the issues come up.

Great point!  I think there's a poll w/ Warner losing bad to some of the Repubs. on PollingReport.  The media is not purely left-wing:  They're probably as fiscally conservative as Republicans (high salary, all you have to do is read a teleprompter, nowadays).  Two exceptions might be Anderson Cooper and Chris Matthews (maybe).  McCain is not unbeatable, Rice is never going to be elected to ANY office, and Hillary (who was Wal-Mart's biotch) is not unstoppable.  I think it might have to do with working in tall bldgs.--low pressure much disrupt their brain fxn.

[nini2287]

Novemeber 2002 (earliest non Zogby poll): Bush 57% Kerry 29%
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen6.htm

Bush's approval ratings were still relatively high and Kerry was an unknown.  I'm not sure what the right-wing media has to do with this one.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In 2002, the 9/11 effect was still at work, helping Bush while in 1998, the Chinagate, Whitewater, and later that year Monicagate all would serve to drive down Clinton's numbers and thus by extension those of his VP: Gore.  McCain is generally not seen as being closely tied to Bush, so Bush's negatives have no reason to attach themselves to him specifically.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In 2002, the 9/11 effect was still at work, helping Bush while in 1998, the Chinagate, Whitewater, and later that year Monicagate all would serve to drive down Clinton's numbers and thus by extension those of his VP: Gore.  McCain is generally not seen as being closely tied to Bush, so Bush's negatives have no reason to attach themselves to him specifically.

In early 1998, Clinton's approval rating was somewhere aroung 66% approve, 29% disapprove.

http://www.pollingreport.com/clinton-.htm

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

That's not comparing apples to apples.  It is quite possible for someone to think someone is doing an OK job as President while thinking someone else would do better, or conversely that someone is doing a poor job as President whie thinking that someone else would do worse.  Presidential approval numbers correlate more with how good the country is feeling about itself than how they feel about the relative merits of the two parties.

[MODU]

hahaha . . . "Enough said" is right.  Means 2008 is another losing year for Democrats. 

[Umengus]

Polling 08 election today is just a non-sense.

[The Duke]

First of all, the poll from 1998 shows Al Gore in the middle of impeachment, so obivously he won't do very well in a poll at that time.  It is true that Clinton's numbers did not suffer, but Gore's image obviously did, as you can see from the poll.  He was seen as Clinton's flak not as his own man.  This is a common problem VPs have, exacerbated in Gore's case.

The poll in 2002 shows a Bush at the pinnacle of his polling performance.  For over a year after 9/11, George Bush was untouchable.  Further, Kerry had near zero name recognition, so you have fully 17% undecided.

The difference with this poll is that everyone knows who McCain and Hillary are, and most have strong feelings about both candidates that will be difficult to shake.