1968: Nixon vs. Kennedy

[MABA 2020]

This has probably been asked before but would Robert Kennedy have been able to beat Nixon in 1968 if he had not been shot and won the Democratic nomination.

As a follow up question would he have been reelected? How would this have changed American politics up until today?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Nixon still wins

[MABA 2020]

Hmmm you reckon thats the end of the Kennedy story then or does he run again?

[MillennialModerate]

Hmmm you reckon thats the end of the Kennedy story then or does he run again?

Probably not because one time losers could run again...

However he is DEAD wrong. The Kennedy’s were still overwhelmingly popular everywhere but the South. Almost all the states Humphrey lost by less than 5 - RFK would win. The likely result is below.
RFK had a lot of policies that were popular with most Americans, AND he was against the war in Vietnam. He was a rare breed that could bring the working class whites and the minority community together. The idea that Nixon, who won the popular vote by 1% - would beat RFK is laughable.

RFK - 346
Nixon - 146
Wallace - 56

I’ll admit one state that I may be too generous to RFK is Texas; Humphrey did so well because he was LBJ VP. So I’m not sure if Texas would stay Dem but I gave RFK the benefit of the doubt

[Balsanator03]

Robert Kennedy was riding the popularity of his brothers but still was a great politician. I am a conservative but if it was a Kennedy v. Generic Republican, I would vote Kennedy.

As for 1968, Robert Kennedy could have won against Former Vice President Nixon.

[Senator-elect Spark]

RFK smokes Nixon.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hmmm you reckon thats the end of the Kennedy story then or does he run again?

Maybe Governor of New York in 1974

[MABA 2020]

Yeah I suppose it makes sense if Nixon could barely beat Humphrey he wouldn't be able to beat RFK, man now I wanna live in that timeline

[President Johnson]

RFK could have beaten Nixon. I think he and LBJ were the only ones who could have done it.

✓ Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY)/Senator Stuart Symington (D-MO): 274 EV. (45.19%)
Former Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 219 EV. (41.92%)
Former Governor George C. Wallace (A-AL)/General Curtis E. LeMay (A-CA): 45 EV. (11.27%)

[OSR stands with Israel]

RFK could have beaten Nixon. I think he and LBJ were the only ones who could have done it.

✓ Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY)/Senator Stuart Symington (D-MO): 274 EV. (45.19%)
Former Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 219 EV. (41.92%)
Former Governor George C. Wallace (A-AL)/General Curtis E. LeMay (A-CA): 45 EV. (11.27%)

I dont think RFK wins CA IL or MO

[Fuzzy Bear]

RFK could have beaten Nixon. I think he and LBJ were the only ones who could have done it.

✓ Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY)/Senator Stuart Symington (D-MO): 274 EV. (45.19%)
Former Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 219 EV. (41.92%)
Former Governor George C. Wallace (A-AL)/General Curtis E. LeMay (A-CA): 45 EV. (11.27%)

I dont think RFK wins CA IL or MO

Mayor Richard J. Daley would have pulled out all the stops for RFK.  Indeed, Mayor Daley wanted to stop Humphrey's nomination and draft Ted Kennedy in 1968.

Many on the left misunderstood Mayor Daley.  He was an organization Democrat; arguably the last great Party Boss, but he was also staunchly anti-war.  Daley was a guy who attended the funerals and met with widows and parents of young working class men who were killed in Vietnam.  This affected Daley deeply.  Indeed, I believe that RFK was counting on Mayor Daley's support.  He was trashed by the left at the 1968 convention, and I grant you that the actions of his own police department weren't always helpful.  But if the issue was the War in Vietnam, Daley was closer to Clean Gene than to LBJ, and his relationship with the Kennedy Family remained strong throughout Daley's life.

[OSR stands with Israel]

RFK could have beaten Nixon. I think he and LBJ were the only ones who could have done it.

✓ Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY)/Senator Stuart Symington (D-MO): 274 EV. (45.19%)
Former Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 219 EV. (41.92%)
Former Governor George C. Wallace (A-AL)/General Curtis E. LeMay (A-CA): 45 EV. (11.27%)

I dont think RFK wins CA IL or MO

Mayor Richard J. Daley would have pulled out all the stops for RFK.  Indeed, Mayor Daley wanted to stop Humphrey's nomination and draft Ted Kennedy in 1968.

Many on the left misunderstood Mayor Daley.  He was an organization Democrat; arguably the last great Party Boss, but he was also staunchly anti-war.  Daley was a guy who attended the funerals and met with widows and parents of young working class men who were killed in Vietnam.  This affected Daley deeply.  Indeed, I believe that RFK was counting on Mayor Daley's support.  He was trashed by the left at the 1968 convention, and I grant you that the actions of his own police department weren't always helpful.  But if the issue was the War in Vietnam, Daley was closer to Clean Gene than to LBJ, and his relationship with the Kennedy Family remained strong throughout Daley's life.

Well even if Nixon wins CA and MO he gets over the top with 271 EV

[President Johnson]

RFK could have beaten Nixon. I think he and LBJ were the only ones who could have done it.

✓ Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY)/Senator Stuart Symington (D-MO): 274 EV. (45.19%)
Former Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 219 EV. (41.92%)
Former Governor George C. Wallace (A-AL)/General Curtis E. LeMay (A-CA): 45 EV. (11.27%)

I dont think RFK wins CA IL or MO

Well, California was already close with Humphrey and Bobby is a great fit for the state. I think he would have energized many young voters, especially in the Bay Area, putting him over the top statewide.

Missouri was a swing state back then, and I gave him senator Stuart Symington as vice presidential pick. He would have been a better running mate than Terry Sanford. Symington was from a key state and had long experience in elected office.

[morgankingsley]

The decrease in Democratic support on the south gives Wallace Tennessee and south Carolina. Kennedy wins Illinois and Ohio and forces a house election

[Continential]

The decrease in Democratic support on the south gives Wallace Tennessee and south Carolina. Kennedy wins Illinois and Ohio and forces a house election

HHH, was a strong candidate on Civil Rights so I doubt that Kennedy could do worse

[NHI]

Kennedy, no question.

[MillennialModerate]

RFK could have beaten Nixon. I think he and LBJ were the only ones who could have done it.

✓ Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY)/Senator Stuart Symington (D-MO): 274 EV. (45.19%)
Former Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 219 EV. (41.92%)
Former Governor George C. Wallace (A-AL)/General Curtis E. LeMay (A-CA): 45 EV. (11.27%)

I dont think RFK wins CA IL or MO

You kidding?

Nixon barely won it against HUMPHREY. RFK wins it in a breeze.

Missouri went Nixon over Humphrey by 20k votes out of 1,809,502. Less than 1%.

Illinois, as was already said had Daley who loved the Kennedy’s and has huge influence.

Those states would be Likely Dem states in 68

 see

[President Biden Democrat]

I'm not so sure what the margin would be exactly but it would definitely be very close. I think Kennedy would squeak out a slight victory over Nixon.

[dw93]

Texas goes Nixon in this scenario as LBJ and Bobby hated each other and Johnson still had enough sway to hurt Bobby in Texas. The only was I see Johnson helping Kennedy is if Reagan is the Republican nominee instead of Nixon and that would only be for the sake of protecting the Great Society. Bobby would make up for it by flipping the majority of the Northern states Nixon won by less than 5%. I think California would decide the race.

[Heir of Camelot]

Bobby wins it for sure. He was an incredible campaigner and was a top notch campaign manager in his youth.

The Kennedys just did not lose elections back then. They were competitive AF and if all else failed they held tea parties and wooed all the female voters.

He would have won reelection too. Then Carter doesn't happen. We get Reagan in '76. Then the '84 Election would have been a complete Wildcard. George HW Bush versus Gary Hart perhaps or Teddy Kennedy minus Chappequidick.

[Alben Barkley]

Bobby wins it for sure. He was an incredible campaigner and was a top notch campaign manager in his youth.

The Kennedys just did not lose elections back then. They were competitive AF and if all else failed they held tea parties and wooed all the female voters.

He would have won reelection too. Then Carter doesn't happen. We get Reagan in '76. Then the '84 Election would have been a complete Wildcard. George HW Bush versus Gary Hart perhaps or Teddy Kennedy minus Chappequidick.

Who’s to say Reagan gets re-elected in 1980 if things go as South for him during those years as they did for Carter, or even close to it? Arguable 1976 was a poisoned chalice election.

[Heir of Camelot]

That's a great point. Do we get Teddy Kennedy in 1980 then?

[johnpressman]

I'm sorry but even if the impossible happened and Robert Kennedy gains the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 1968, Nixon still wins the election. A terrific "what-If RFK lived" book on the 1968 Presidential Election is "On To Chicago" by James Rogan.

I was a teenager and involved in the political scene that year. America was a very different place in 1968.  Much more traditional and, remember,  the voting age was 21, not 18 as in later elections.  The majority of Americans supported the war in Vietnam, even up through 1972 evidenced by Nixon's landslide re-election that November.  

In 1968, World War2 and Korean War veterans were only in their 40s and 50s. The Vietnam war protestors were mostly composed of college students trying to avoid the draft after their deferment ran out, accompanied by their professors.To these millions of adult war veterans, the Vietnam protestors were entitled ingrates and traitors to the country their generation had sacrificed so much to defend.

Now, just add a Democratic President in LBJ with enormous political power who absolutely hated Robert Kennedy.  Johnson felt that RFK's candidacy repudiated his tenure as President and would work overtime to ensure his defeat. Trying to win the Presidency without the support of the Democratic Party organization would prove both difficult and expensive.  RFK was also disliked by organized labor as they remembered his attacks on the Teamsters and his assistance to his brother's intervention in the U.S. Steel strike in 1961. Labor unions' money and ability to get out the vote through their members and extended families was a mainstay of the Democratic Party coalition for many years.

Lastly, don't kid yourself about RFK's popularity among young white voters. Many young people idolized Eugene McCarthy and considered RFK's candidacy selfish and opportunistic.  Liberal columnist  Max Lerner compared RFK to "a coward coming down from the hills to shoot the wounded". Kennedy would have had to concede the Southern and Western states, making an Electoral College majority very difficult to obtain.

[MillennialModerate]

I'm sorry but even if the impossible happened and Robert Kennedy gains the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 1968, Nixon still wins the election. A terrific "what-If RFK lived" book on the 1968 Presidential Election is "On To Chicago" by James Rogan.

I was a teenager and involved in the political scene that year. America was a very different place in 1968.  Much more traditional and, remember,  the voting age was 21, not 18 as in later elections.  The majority of Americans supported the war in Vietnam, even up through 1972 evidenced by Nixon's landslide re-election that November.  

In 1968, World War2 and Korean War veterans were only in their 40s and 50s. The Vietnam war protestors were mostly composed of college students trying to avoid the draft after their deferment ran out, accompanied by their professors.To these millions of adult war veterans, the Vietnam protestors were entitled ingrates and traitors to the country their generation had sacrificed so much to defend.

Now, just add a Democratic President in LBJ with enormous political power who absolutely hated Robert Kennedy.  Johnson felt that RFK's candidacy repudiated his tenure as President and would work overtime to ensure his defeat. Trying to win the Presidency without the support of the Democratic Party organization would prove both difficult and expensive.  RFK was also disliked by organized labor as they remembered his attacks on the Teamsters and his assistance to his brother's intervention in the U.S. Steel strike in 1961. Labor unions' money and ability to get out the vote through their members and extended families was a mainstay of the Democratic Party coalition for many years.

Lastly, don't kid yourself about RFK's popularity among young white voters. Many young people idolized Eugene McCarthy and considered RFK's candidacy selfish and opportunistic.  Liberal columnist  Max Lerner compared RFK to "a coward coming down from the hills to shoot the wounded". Kennedy would have had to concede the Southern and Western states, making an Electoral College majority very difficult to obtain.

I’m not sure where you’re getting this from that Robert Kennedy wasn’t popular. I’ll put it this way: It was more than just McCarthys near win in New Hampshire that led LBJ to drop out . He feared the embarrassment of losing to RFK who he did loathe. Bobby had a unique coalition of voters that would’ve been hard to beat and the Kennedy’s had a lot of connections as everyone knows. You do make some valid points about the teamsters and such and the power of Southern Dems but I think you’re overlooking really the simple math of it all.  

Combine with other factors like RFK’s popularity and the sympathy vote and a yearning for a return to normalcy (as many associated JFK death with the beginning of the chaos in the 60’s) I think it all means you’re borderline crazy for thinking RFK wouldn’t beat Nixon. I mean Humphrey lost the popular vote by 0.7% but more importantly came very close in enough major states that would’ve swung the election with just a slightly better Dem vote. I guess what I’m saying is how in the world do you not think RFK be a more successful candidate than Humphrey?!


Nixon had 110 more electoral votes than Humphrey.

Nixon won Missouri by 1% (less than 20k). There’s little doubt RFK would’ve done far better than Humphrey did in California where Nixon won by just under 3%. It’s a beer cetainty RFK would’ve far surpassed Humprheys result in Illinois where Nixon won by under 3%. New Jersey was won by Nixon with a margin of 60k out of 2.8M. There’s Ohio where Nixon won by just 2%. There’s a real possibility Wisconsin wouldve seen RFK do better than Humphrey - Nixon won by 2.5%. Small states like Deleware, Nevada and Alaska had a high likelihood of going for RFK as well.

At worse the election would’ve gone to the Democrat controlled House (with a commanding lead in delegations) because a few southern states that went for Nixon would’ve went for Wallace due to less Southerns voting for the Dem ticket but refusing to vote Republican because of tradition. Tennessee for example likely would’ve been a Wallace state. So outside the South Wallace would over take Nixon in his few successful states and outside the South RFK would overtake Nixon

For Robert Kennedy sinning the nomination would have been the hard part. Beating Richard Nixon would’ve been the easy part

[MillennialModerate]

RFK • 303 EV
Picks up Ohio, California, Nevada, New Jersey, Missouri, Illinois and Wisconsin

Nixon • 178 EV
Picks up Texas

Wallace • 56 EV
Picks up Tennessee