MI Gov 2022- Does Gretchen Whitmer win re-election?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I say she wins in a Trumo midterm but probably loses in a Biden midterm. She's very polarizing.

[Not Me, Us]

Lean D in a Trump midterm, tossup in a Biden midterm. A strong Republican should be able to beat her in a Biden midterm, although the GOP bench in the state is rather weak.

[Orwell]

Lean D in a Trump midterm, tossup in a Biden midterm. A strong Republican should be able to beat her in a Biden midterm, although the GOP bench in the state is rather weak.

I'd disagree with you on the state bench being weak, Upton challenging Whitmer wouldn't be too far out there and he represents a pretty pivotal county in SW Michigan (Kalamazoo) and he has a strong amount of support in the Kalamazoo-Battle Creek-Portage metro area. The Speaker of the State House is a non-starter likely though, since he had a brief run-in with law enforcement when trying to bring a loaded gun onto an Airplane it's actually really funny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0N0hBHv_i9Y

[NewYorkExpress]

Likely D in a Trump Midterm, Lean R in a Biden Midterm (though other than Amash, I'm having trouble figuring out what "Republican" will run.)

[MT Treasurer]

Difficult to tell at this early stage, but I think Whitmer and Evers are going to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2022. Toss-up/Tilt R in a Biden midterm.

[NewYorkExpress]

Difficult to tell at this early stage, but I think Whitmer and Evers are going to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2022. Toss-up/Tilt R in a Biden midterm.

Eh, I'd put it at Lean R, same as Evers in 2022 if Biden wins.

The only Democrat more vulnerable in that scenario (who wouldn't be term-limited) would probably be Laura Kelly.

[Orwell]

The Lt. Governor of Michigan is 6'8 this has nothing to do with her reelection but Garlin Gilchrist is huge

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd say Candice Miller is the most likely nominee tbh. Shes almost 70, so if she has any desire to ascend to higher office, its 2022 or never

[Galeel]

I'd say Candice Miller is the most likely nominee tbh. Shes almost 70, so if she has any desire to ascend to higher office, its 2022 or never

I doubt she wants it tbh. If she wanted a higher office she would have run by now or stayed in her house seat.

[Orwell]

I'd say Candice Miller is the most likely nominee tbh. Shes almost 70, so if she has any desire to ascend to higher office, its 2022 or never

I doubt she wants it tbh. If she wanted a higher office she would have run by now or stayed in her house seat.

I am 100% certain her only goal is to go around and defeat Democratic incumbents who have held their seats for decades.

She defeated Richard H. Austin for Michigan Secretary of State in 1994, he had held the office for 24 years.

She defeated David Bonior the House Minority Whip, he had been the Majority whip and been in Congress for 25 years.

In 1984 when she beat  Adam Nowakowski to be Macomb County Treasurer she was the first Republican elected in the county in 60 years.

Finally, in 2016, she defeated Anthony Marrocco who had been the Chairman of the Macomb County Public Works Commissioner for 24 years.

To follow the trend she needs to beat Stabenow in 2024 now haha.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I'd say Candice Miller is the most likely nominee tbh. Shes almost 70, so if she has any desire to ascend to higher office, its 2022 or never

I doubt she wants it tbh. If she wanted a higher office she would have run by now or stayed in her house seat.

I am 100% certain her only goal is to go around and defeat Democratic incumbents who have held their seats for decades.

She defeated Richard H. Austin for Michigan Secretary of State in 1994, he had held the office for 24 years.

She defeated David Bonior the House Minority Whip, he had been the Majority whip and been in Congress for 25 years.

In 1984 when she beat  Adam Nowakowski to be Macomb County Treasurer she was the first Republican elected in the county in 60 years.

Finally, in 2016, she defeated Anthony Marrocco who had been the Chairman of the Macomb County Public Works Commissioner for 24 years.

To follow the trend she needs to beat Stabenow in 2024 now haha.

Miller didn't defeat Bonior in an election; 2000s redistricting made MI-10 even more Republican (Bush 1992 and W Bush 2000 both won the 90s iteration of MI-10), so Bonior ejected himself into the 2002 gubernatorial primary and lost to Granholm, at least sparing himself the humiliation of a member of House leadership being defeated in an election.

[President Johnson]

Lean Democratic. Gretchen Whitmer is a skillful and charismatic politcian who will run as an incumbent. I think she's favored even in a Biden midterm. I think Uncle Joe won't suffer from a backlask like Bubba in 1994 and Obama in 2010 if he becomes president. And Michigan is still a blue-leaning state.

More interesting is how Governor Gilchrist would perform if Whitmer were to become vice president.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Difficult to tell at this early stage, but I think Whitmer and Evers are going to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2022. Toss-up/Tilt R in a Biden midterm.

No they wont both of them arent anywhere where Trump is in his approval rating, Evers has a 53% and Whitmee at 66%

[Bojack Horseman]

Likely D. The covidiots are a very loud minority throwing an even louder temper tantrum. Her approval rating is currently 72% with 65% of independents approving of her handling of the Coronavirus.

[President Johnson]

Difficult to tell at this early stage, but I think Whitmer and Evers are going to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2022. Toss-up/Tilt R in a Biden midterm.

Laura Kelly probably should be added to the list, even if she is popular at the time. If he were to run for reelection, Ned Lamont is another contender who may vulnerable after all.

[Orwell]

I'd say Candice Miller is the most likely nominee tbh. Shes almost 70, so if she has any desire to ascend to higher office, its 2022 or never

I doubt she wants it tbh. If she wanted a higher office she would have run by now or stayed in her house seat.

I am 100% certain her only goal is to go around and defeat Democratic incumbents who have held their seats for decades.

She defeated Richard H. Austin for Michigan Secretary of State in 1994, he had held the office for 24 years.

She defeated David Bonior the House Minority Whip, he had been the Majority whip and been in Congress for 25 years.

In 1984 when she beat  Adam Nowakowski to be Macomb County Treasurer she was the first Republican elected in the county in 60 years.

Finally, in 2016, she defeated Anthony Marrocco who had been the Chairman of the Macomb County Public Works Commissioner for 24 years.

To follow the trend she needs to beat Stabenow in 2024 now haha.

Miller didn't defeat Bonior in an election; 2000s redistricting made MI-10 even more Republican (Bush 1992 and W Bush 2000 both won the 90s iteration of MI-10), so Bonior ejected himself into the 2002 gubernatorial primary and lost to Granholm, at least sparing himself the humiliation of a member of House leadership being defeated in an election.

My mistake thanks for the clarification

[Hope For A New Era]

Thought I'd jump in to say, since I've seen her mentioned a few times, that the conservative/moderate schism in the KSGOP makes Laura Kelly actually pretty safe. In 2018 she won by 5 points, overperforming nearly every poll, and that was with an independent candidate (Greg Orman) taking 6.5% of the vote. Without him, she probably could have won by 8 points or more. Kobach has a "Trumpian" base - an extremely high floor and extremely low ceiling.

[TML]

If she maintains an approval rating which is significantly above water by mid-to-late 2022, then she will probably win reelection.

If her approval rating is significantly underwater by that point, then she's probably toast.

[President Biden Democrat]

Whitmer will probably win re-election either way. If Trump wins re-election the seat will be likely Democrat and she will win easily. If Biden wins (which is more likely at this point): Whitmer still probably would be able to win re-election but it would be lean Democrat and fairly close.

[S019]

I'm inclined to say yes, her virus handling is quite popular, and gubernatorial elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent. Plus the MI-GOP bench isn't exactly enticing. John James (assuming he loses in November, as is widely expected) would basically be a perennial candidate, at that point.

[Orwell]

I'm inclined to say yes, her virus handling is quite popular, and gubernatorial elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent. Plus the MI-GOP bench isn't exactly enticing. John James (assuming he loses in November, as is widely expected) would basically be a perennial candidate, at that point.

As I've said before the Michigan GOP bench isn't bad, I think there are plenty of Republicans who could make a serious run for the Governor's mansion in 2022, the Speaker of the State House Lee Chatfield, Fred Upton (MI-6), Brian Calley who served as Lt. Gov for Rick Snyder, and a slew of other state legislators along with, Kid Rock

[Continential]

I'm inclined to say yes, her virus handling is quite popular, and gubernatorial elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent. Plus the MI-GOP bench isn't exactly enticing. John James (assuming he loses in November, as is widely expected) would basically be a perennial candidate, at that point.

As I've said before the Michigan GOP bench isn't bad, I think there are plenty of Republicans who could make a serious run for the Governor's mansion in 2022, the Speaker of the State House Lee Chatfield, Fred Upton (MI-6), Brian Calley who served as Lt. Gov for Rick Snyder, and a slew of other state legislators along with, Kid Rock

I can imagine the TV ads.

[windjammer]

It's going to be a toss up

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Probably

[2016]

Lean Democratic. Gretchen Whitmer is a skillful and charismatic politcian who will run as an incumbent. I think she's favored even in a Biden midterm. I think Uncle Joe won't suffer from a backlask like Bubba in 1994 and Obama in 2010 if he becomes president. And Michigan is still a blue-leaning state.

More interesting is how Governor Gilchrist would perform if Whitmer were to become vice president.

Wishful thinking!

I am going to make a Bold Prediction that uncharismatic Biden will lose even more Seats in the Senate, Governor, House and Legislatures around the Country if he becomes President.

Michigan is Tilt to Lean R in a Biden Midterm.

Republicans will get Michigan, Wisconsin and Kansas back.

And how is Whitmer a skillful Politician. She has done crap after crap after crap trying to sabotage the Michigan Economy with her actions.

I wish John James wouldn't have challenged Peters! Instead he should have waited two years and then run for Governor.