MO (We Ask America): Trump +4

[Bidenworth2020]

Trump 48
Biden 44

http://www.weaskamerica.com/surveys/missouri-statewide-general-election-survey-results

[S019]

I'll buy Biden getting 44% in MO, probably the final margin is like 56-44 or 55-45, he may pick up some ground from Clinton and probably won't lose by 20, but even 44% is probably close to the upper limit of what he gets in MO, I'd say Biden gets around 42-43% of the vote in MO, obviously still Safe R.

[ajc0918]

Trump campaign should spend money making sure this state is secure.

[Tender Branson]

The Oxford model guys were right !

Missouri = swing state !!!

[libertpaulian]

If Biden actually got 44% in the state, that's very good news for Galloway.

[Bidenworth2020]

If Biden actually got 44% in the state, that's very good news for Galloway.

This same poll had her losing by 8, 47-39.

[Gass3268]

Damn from a Republican pollster too.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Biden actually got 44% in the state, that's very good news for Galloway.

And very bad for Wagner since uncle Joe's gains must come predominantly from her district.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Damn from a Republican pollster too.

Is We Ask America an R outfit?

[Hope For A New Era]

Lol, I wish. Sample is probably disproportionately educated. I'll buy the 44%, but Trump will break 50 easily.

[MT Treasurer]

Too D-friendly, but MO is one of the four Trump +18-20 states (MO/IN/KS/MT) which I expect to swing  Democratic even if Trump wins reelection, some more strongly than others. I could see Trump's 2016 margin being cut in half in all of those states (although MT/KS are far more likely than IN) depending on how good a night Democrats have.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Two theories about the polling this cycle
1) Trump is screwed and he is gonna be washed out in a giant blue tsunami
2) Polling this year is heavily favoring the dems and the actual results will be much better for Trump

[The Mikado]

Two theories about the polling this cycle
1) Trump is screwed and he is gonna be washed out in a giant blue tsunami
2) Polling this year is heavily favoring the dems and the actual results will be much better for Trump

In this particular case, I'm inclined to the theory that a lot of people on this thread have posted, that the "undecideds" are basically all going to vote for Trump in a state like this. Either that or this poll is just junk.

That said, MO went 56-38 last time. If MO goes something like...55-43 this time (a GOP-favorable interpretation of this poll) that's a massive swing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Too D-friendly, but MO is one of the four Trump +18-20 states (MO/IN/KS/MT) which I expect to swing  Democratic even if Trump wins reelection, some more strongly than others. I could see Trump's 2016 margin being cut in half in all of those states (although MT/KS are far more likely than IN) depending on how good a night Democrats have.

Dont you realize that we are in a 25% unemployment economy not a 3.5 percent unemployment,  the R domination since 2010 is over. Dems will no on during the 2020s will be the governing party,  silver lining to a Clinton loss in 2016, which Rs still would of dominated Congress 🤩🤩🤩

[Bidenworth2020]

Favorability Numbers-

Biden 49/47 (+2)
Trump 52/46 (+6)

For reference, Hillary's favorables in the Missouri exit poll were 35/65 (-30).

Oh, the wonders that picking someone who isn't viscerally hated by more than half the country will do!

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

2008: +0.13
2012: +9.36
2016: +18.51

I think we will probably see about +12 or +13 for the Republican this time around. Which would still be a pretty strong improvement for the Dems from 2016.

[SnowLabrador]

Since Presidential outcomes are usually correlated from state to state, this probably is good news for Ohio and Iowa for Democrats. But this poll likely significantly overestimates Biden, sadly.

[ProudModerate2]

Wow.
Big swing away from trump in Missouri.
I doubt Biden can win here, but Biden will do better than Hillary.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Seems unrealistic. Could maybe see Missouri as Trump +9 or so if Biden is having a very good night, but nothing closer than that.

[Xing]

Polls in MO have underestimated Republicans recently, and I expect that to continue. I honestly think Trump wins MO by double digits even if Biden wins big.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since SN2903 havent responded I will take note that the Rs thought that Trump was gonna win MO by 15 pts, and Trump isnt,  and up by 4 and Parsons is only up by 8, go Galloway 😍😍😍

[tagimaucia]

Even if Biden romped and won 400 EVs, he'd still probably lose Missouri by 10-13 points imo.

[Pollster]

Another poll from a red state showing significant Dem improvement from 2016. Getting easier to see how the national popular vote polls look so good for Biden while battleground state polls remain close-ish.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I don't think Trump will get the same margin as he in 2016 but not anything this close either. Probably goes 12-15 for him

[Pollster]

Some other interesting tidbits from the crosstabs:

-Trump is doing better among those who say they will defintiely vote (50/44 Trump) than those who say they will probably vote (51/29 Biden) and those who say the chances of them voting are 50/50 (24/17 Biden). Higher turnout probably favors Biden here.

-Voters aged 66+ are 51/46 Trump.

-The undecideds appear to overwhelmingly be male independents here (they are 36/31 Biden).

-Big swing towards Biden in the Springfield media market. Trump is winning it 63/31 here, was 72/23 in 2016. McCaskill also made some gains here as well.

-The St. Louis media market was 48/47 Trump in 2016. Biden is winning it here, 51/40. Horrible news for Wagner.

-Biden appears to be winning the St. Joseph media market handily, though that is a very small market and the subsample is probably unreliable.