Why did so many people think Biden would inevitably "collapse"?

[Del Tachi]

Because he's the ultimate paper tiger.  Biden's strongest electability argument in 2020 will only ever be that he was "buddy buddy" with Obama for eight years.  His appeal is built entirely on that association (and the universal name recognition that came along with it).  There's nothing actually substantive there - no big policy agenda, no compelling life story, no great milestone his election would represent, etc.  It's not difficult to foresee a collapse when the house has no foundation, so to speak.

And, as other posters have pointed out, Biden did collapse.  Terrible performances in IA and NH (which is a good reason to bet Biden won't improve greatly in states like MI or WI).  What only saved his campaign was near-universal support among one of the most idiosyncratic American voting blocs (rural, older Black women in the South).

Biden's polling lead vs Trump is stagnant right now because the campaign (and Biden himself) aren't in the news.  That won't remain the case into the fall.  Just like Iowa and New Hampshire, the more of Joe Biden voters see the less they'll like him.

[darklordoftech]

He performed badly in early states and in polling.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Because the man is an absolute gaffe machine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Because his primary candidacy had little progressive energy and obvious enthusiasm behind it and, in its early stages, it did not attract significant support from UMC Democrats who are overrepresented amongst commentators who lay claim to understanding the party's "moderate" wing.

[Devils30]

2 of the 3 earliest states were caucuses. Somehow the Sanders people think these elections are the results of the average electorate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

2 of the 3 earliest states were caucuses. Somehow the Sanders people think these elections are the results of the average electorate.

It wasn't just "the Sanders people" who thought he'd collapse; indeed, many of those predicting a Biden collapse also originally bet on Sanders collapsing thanks to the Warren campaign. The supposed "smart money" was on Buttigieg, Harris, etc. amongst moderates and Warren amongst progressives; candidacies deemed viable either had enthusiasm behind them or representation of backgrounds that were prevalent within the commentariat. Within its base, Biden's outfit didn't have much of either.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Because he's clearly way less sharp than he was even four years ago. I'm not going to pretend Democrats chose someone who's especially fit to be president. Apparently skating by on decades of stockpiled goodwill is enough. Wonder why he was able to accumulate so much while the last, and obviously sharper, nominee was not...

agreed, he's been hidden due to the virus and I think his luck will eventually run out. We saw how lost he looked in that Breakfast club interview...

Just because you say something doesn't make it true.

So you’re the arbiter of truth now?

[SN2903]

He will in September. He can't hide in his basement forever. He will be exposed by the Trump campaign.

January 19th: "Here's how President-elect Biden can still collapse."

Can't wait for your excuses as to why Biden lost.

[SN2903]

Because he's the ultimate paper tiger.  Biden's strongest electability argument in 2020 will only ever be that he was "buddy buddy" with Obama for eight years.  His appeal is built entirely on that association (and the universal name recognition that came along with it).  There's nothing actually substantive there - no big policy agenda, no compelling life story, no great milestone his election would represent, etc.  It's not difficult to foresee a collapse when the house has no foundation, so to speak.

And, as other posters have pointed out, Biden did collapse.  Terrible performances in IA and NH (which is a good reason to bet Biden won't improve greatly in states like MI or WI).  What only saved his campaign was near-universal support among one of the most idiosyncratic American voting blocs (rural, older Black women in the South).

Biden's polling lead vs Trump is stagnant right now because the campaign (and Biden himself) aren't in the news.  That won't remain the case into the fall.  Just like Iowa and New Hampshire, the more of Joe Biden voters see the less they'll like him.

Bingo and his numbers are already coming down after the comment he made last week. You are already seeing a tightening.

[heatcharger]

And, as other posters have pointed out, Biden did collapse.  Terrible performances in IA and NH (which is a good reason to bet Biden won't improve greatly in states like MI or WI).  What only saved his campaign was near-universal support among one of the most idiosyncratic American voting blocs (rural, older Black women in the South).

THANK YOU WHITES!

Biden's polling lead vs Trump is stagnant right now because the campaign (and Biden himself) aren't in the news.  That won't remain the case into the fall.  Just like Iowa and New Hampshire, the more of Joe Biden voters see the less they'll like him.

But voters saw a lot of Joe Biden, on TV that is, for three days before Super Tuesday, and then he went on to massively outperform expectations literally everywhere?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

And, as other posters have pointed out, Biden did collapse.  Terrible performances in IA and NH (which is a good reason to bet Biden won't improve greatly in states like MI or WI).  What only saved his campaign was near-universal support among one of the most idiosyncratic American voting blocs (rural, older Black women in the South).

THANK YOU WHITES!

Biden's polling lead vs Trump is stagnant right now because the campaign (and Biden himself) aren't in the news.  That won't remain the case into the fall.  Just like Iowa and New Hampshire, the more of Joe Biden voters see the less they'll like him.

But voters saw a lot of Joe Biden, on TV that is, for three days before Super Tuesday, and then he went on to massively outperform expectations literally everywhere?

I'm not sure that I buy into the whole "once the campaign REALLY begins, Biden is finished."

Yes, he's a gaffe machine.  And I'm sure he has still-hidden skeletons in his closet.  But it's not as though he's a grassroots political unknown. 

[Del Tachi]

And, as other posters have pointed out, Biden did collapse.  Terrible performances in IA and NH (which is a good reason to bet Biden won't improve greatly in states like MI or WI).  What only saved his campaign was near-universal support among one of the most idiosyncratic American voting blocs (rural, older Black women in the South).

THANK YOU WHITES!

Biden's polling lead vs Trump is stagnant right now because the campaign (and Biden himself) aren't in the news.  That won't remain the case into the fall.  Just like Iowa and New Hampshire, the more of Joe Biden voters see the less they'll like him.

But voters saw a lot of Joe Biden, on TV that is, for three days before Super Tuesday, and then he went on to massively outperform expectations literally everywhere?

Obviously the SC win was the adrenaline boost that Joe Biden needed.  The media was willing to give his campaign the positively-spun "resurgent comeback kid" treatment after he won a state that was always suppose to be his firewall, this went very far in adding to Biden's air of inevitability and pressuring candidates like Klobuchar and Buttigieg out.  His Super Tuesday performance really isn't all that impressive in the context which it appeared (that is, the quickest and most dramatic winnowing of a primary field in recent memory). 

[SN2903]

And, as other posters have pointed out, Biden did collapse.  Terrible performances in IA and NH (which is a good reason to bet Biden won't improve greatly in states like MI or WI).  What only saved his campaign was near-universal support among one of the most idiosyncratic American voting blocs (rural, older Black women in the South).

THANK YOU WHITES!

Biden's polling lead vs Trump is stagnant right now because the campaign (and Biden himself) aren't in the news.  That won't remain the case into the fall.  Just like Iowa and New Hampshire, the more of Joe Biden voters see the less they'll like him.

But voters saw a lot of Joe Biden, on TV that is, for three days before Super Tuesday, and then he went on to massively outperform expectations literally everywhere?

I'm not sure that I buy into the whole "once the campaign REALLY begins, Biden is finished."

Yes, he's a gaffe machine.  And I'm sure he has still-hidden skeletons in his closet.  But it's not as though he's a grassroots political unknown.  

It's not the "gaffes" I believe the more he gets out and does interviews, debates, rallies the more his unfitness will surface. It's easy to just be that generic dem when you're in your basement. Also the fact that he is a career politician is going to hurt him especially with WWC voters who do not like establishment types.

[beaver2.0]

Because he's Joe Biden.  Sure, he's not a late-stage dementia patient on the cusp of death, but he says a lot of weird things, has a strange history of inappropriate touching, and is a gaffe machine the likes of which we rarely see.  Is it too much to have asked for the Democrats to nominate someone that doesn't have those characteristics?

I still maintain that if not for the memes that circulated in 2013-15 that Biden and Obama were "besties" he would have been largely irrelevant after Obama's presidency was over.

[ShadowRocket]

To speak for myself but I always figured that his support was based on name recognition alone and that other candidates would be begin to rise upon introducing themselves.

[here2view]

Because some people grossly overestimated how liberal the Democratic Party is.

Twitter is not representative of the Democratic Party.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Because some people grossly overestimated how liberal the Democratic Party is.

Twitter is not representative of the Democratic Party.

Again, this is missing the point. Predictions of collapse came even from those who thought a "moderate" candidate would win!

[MT Treasurer]

Because they wanted him to.

This.

The only way you could have regarded the IA caucus + NH primary as more reliable bellwethers in the Democratic nomination process than the SC primary in the year 2020 or based your predictions of Biden's "collapse" on his showing in those two states while deliberately ignoring his firewall in SC (which was quite clearly always going to be his strongest early state, much like it was for Clinton in 2016) + not factoring in the predictable rapid narrowing of the field after each early contest and Super Tuesday (which clearly hurt Sanders) is if you let your personal feelings about Biden/Sanders or some (unnecessarily) overarching and wishful thinking about the direction of the Democratic Party interfere with your predictions. It was fun while it lasted, though.

[Ferguson97]

Because they wanted him to.

This.

The only way you could have regarded the IA caucus + NH primary as more reliable bellwethers in the Democratic nomination process than the SC primary in the year 2020 or based your predictions of Biden's "collapse" on his showing in those two states while deliberately ignoring his firewall in SC (which was quite clearly always going to be his strongest early state, much like it was for Clinton in 2016) + not factoring in the predictable rapid narrowing of the field after each early contest and Super Tuesday (which clearly hurt Sanders) is if you let your personal feelings about Biden/Sanders or some (unnecessarily) overarching and wishful thinking about the direction of the Democratic Party interfere with your predictions. It was fun while it lasted, though.

"Here's how Biden will collapse" is shaping up to be the "Here's how Trump will collapse" of 2020.

[Xing]

He was polling at about half of Clinton’s 2016 support, and many believed that his support was “soft” and that another candidate could easily overtake him. Given what happened in IA, NH, and NV, that wasn’t such an unreasonable assumption, and what saved Biden was his strong support among black voters, as well as many white voters deciding to vote for whoever the most viable “not Sanders” candidate ended up being. Had someone other than Sanders ended up being the main alternative to Biden, or had Sanders made fewer enemies within the party, I don’t think Biden would’ve rebounded so quickly and easily.

[Bidenworth2020]

I mean, really?  The guy seems like he has the early onset signs of dementia.

Everyone I know who has had family members with dementia disagree.

Friend, I honestly hope you are right.  Whatever his politics, I have no personal qualm with Joe Biden, and he seems like a decent enough guy (for a politician, of course ... I find it creepy to treat ANY politician as this great person).  However, my girlfriend is a nurse that used to care for the elderly, and I am choosing to believe her opinion on it.  Not that it should matter, but she is an avid supporter of his.

This is a pretty precise diagnosis considering she isn't his nurse or anything, but I will trust she isn't acting in bad faith. In any case, while I think there is little question he has "slowed down" a bit, the sole fact that he ran a campaign for over a year, visiting states across the country and giving 3-4 speeches a day that were, despite their arguable mediocrity, still coherent for the most part, suggests to me that him having any form of dementia is unlikely.

[ProudModerate2]

I was getting tired of seeing all the "It's happening, it's happening!" posts and threads.

[izixs]

He was polling at about half of Clinton’s 2016 support, and many believed that his support was “soft” and that another candidate could easily overtake him. Given what happened in IA, NH, and NV, that wasn’t such an unreasonable assumption, and what saved Biden was his strong support among black voters, as well as many white voters deciding to vote for whoever the most viable “not Sanders” candidate ended up being. Had someone other than Sanders ended up being the main alternative to Biden, or had Sanders made fewer enemies within the party, I don’t think Biden would’ve rebounded so quickly and easily.

A couple days after Iowa on twitter I predicted the Sanders would not be the nominee for 2 reasons: Pissing off most of the party constantly and his campaign being incompetent. And well... that's kind of why Biden became the nominee. Those who couldn't reliably beat Sanders in the early states became irrelevant, and so yes, when Biden appeared to have a solid base of any sort, he became the primary choice of those who either didn't like Sanders or were ignored by Sanders' campaign for being too bougie (aka, anyone not already being on board with Sanders as of last summer).