BLM riots delivering Minnesota to Trump?

[Asker]

We already saw in 2016 that places that are close to BLM riots saw heavy swings towards Trump, especially among white working class voters. Missouri, where the movement started, is the most glaring example. Trump won it by 18.5, doubling Romney's margin because his tough on crime message resonated with working class whites scared of those riots leading to a spiral of violence. There hasn't been any polling about Americans views of BLM since 2017, as they have been very quiet since but last time 43% had a favorable view and 57% had an unfavorable view. The riots could be a massive liability for Biden in the midwest/rust belt and deliver Minnesota to Trump, not to mention making Biden's task of winning neighboring Wisconsin and the electoral college as well way harder.

[DINGO Joe]

Worst first post ever.

[Joe Biden 2024]

Missouri also hasn't voted for the Democratic nominee for President in 24 years.

[Bidenworth2020]

no

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

OP's question isn't ridiculous but

(1) I doubt BLM is as unpopular as it was six years ago (college educated whites are woker now than in 2014) and

(2) anti-BLM sentiment doesn't seem all that salient in Minnesota

I think the Ferguson case inflamed racial tensions in a way that definitely favored Rs nationally in 2014 but the 2014 Senate results showed that this didn't really translate at all to GOP success in Minnesota



That's a crazy map for a Democrat in 2014!

You can make the argument that the Castille murder pushed MN closer to Trump in 2016 but I highly doubt it.

[We Live in Black and White]

Can't believe I'm using this on someone who isn't Herr Woodbury.



Congratulations on making people want you to leave from your first post.

[Asker]

Missouri also hasn't voted for the Democratic nominee for President in 24 years.

BLM didn't make Hillary lose Missouri but it made her lose it by nearly 20 points. Minnesota was ever so slightly to the right of the popular vote so a flip with Trump running up the score with rural whites concerned about blm is very possible.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, this is not a great first impression.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Nah, I think that even white people are starting to get fed up with the cops getting off scot-free every time they kill a person, which is a privilege that most people, including those who are law-abiding gun owners defending themselves and their families, do not have.  I can personally attest to the fact that police brutality affects white people as well.  People are sick of being bullied and murdered by jackboots and would rather police themselves.

[SevenEleven]

😂

[The Dowager Mod]

They say that when a new sock is born a varicose vein get's his wings.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Nah, I think that even white people are starting to get fed up with the cops getting off scot-free every time they kill a person, which is a privilege that most people, even those who are law-abiding gun owners defending themselves and their families, do not have.  I can personally attest to the fact that police brutality affects white people as well.  People are sick of being bullied and murdered by jackboots and would rather police themselves.

The overall reaction to George Floyd just feels...different.  Save for some "let's wait until all the facts emerge" viewpoints, the actions of the officers here have been pretty roundly condemned.  

[lfromnj]

They say that when a new sock is born a varicose vein get's his wings.

Wow already caught as a sock?
Who?
Coolface?

[Real Texan Politics]

Trump's not winning Minnesota regardless. If anything I actually think there'll be a sizable black voter turnout for Biden to the point where he'll over-perform Hillary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nah, I think that even white people are starting to get fed up with the cops getting off scot-free every time they kill a person, which is a privilege that most people, even those who are law-abiding gun owners defending themselves and their families, do not have.  I can personally attest to the fact that police brutality affects white people as well.  People are sick of being bullied and murdered by jackboots and would rather police themselves.

The overall reaction to George Floyd just feels...different.  Save for some "let's wait until all the facts emerge" viewpoints, the actions of the officers here have been pretty roundly condemned.  

Both this and the Cooper case are clear cut. There are no ifs and buts for the crypto-racists to hide behind like the previous times.

[Joe Biden 2024]

Missouri also hasn't voted for the Democratic nominee for President in 24 years.

BLM didn't make Hillary lose Missouri but it made her lose it by nearly 20 points. Minnesota was ever so slightly to the right of the popular vote so a flip with Trump running up the score with rural whites concerned about blm is very possible.

There's no evidence to back that up. You're relying upon one factor to make a point when there are so many other factors in play.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Possibly.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Nah, I think that even white people are starting to get fed up with the cops getting off scot-free every time they kill a person, which is a privilege that most people, even those who are law-abiding gun owners defending themselves and their families, do not have.  I can personally attest to the fact that police brutality affects white people as well.  People are sick of being bullied and murdered by jackboots and would rather police themselves.

The overall reaction to George Floyd just feels...different.  Save for some "let's wait until all the facts emerge" viewpoints, the actions of the officers here have been pretty roundly condemned.  

The Ferguson case was a he said/she said hoopla where the coroner’s report actually ended up backing the officer’s testimony, but by that point, Michael Brown had already been turned into a martyr for long simmering resentments over police misconduct.

I wonder how the politics of the BLM movement would have played out differently if the trigger was a far more damning event like this one. Granted, the Eric Garner incident was only like a month before, but Michael Brown ended up becoming the real poster child for the movement in its early days (the whole “hands up, don’t shoot!” chant, which almost certainly didn’t actually happen).

[beaver2.0]

I've seen a fair number of conservatives coming out against this.  Unless this somehow turns into the worst riots in US history I just don't see it turning the state to Trump.

[Illini Moderate]

After witnessing the nearly all white lockdown protestors, and then seeing the multitude of killings of nonviolent black people back-to-back, a lot of people are more empathetic with these cases than ever were for the other killings when they first got media attention.

[MABA 2020]

Highly unlikely

[LiberalDem19]

No, this one feels different because

1) There haven't been any stories that came out yet about his past, which is what racists always do when black men are murdered.

2) Even Trump isn't taking the officer's side.

3) There's clear-cut, undeniable evidence (the video) that this was a murder.

[Lambsbread]

Can't believe I'm using this on someone who isn't Herr Woodbury.



Congratulations on making people want you to leave from your first post.

DONT DISRESPECT MY BOY PIETRO LIKE THIS

[Hammy]

This reeks of the same overconfidence that the 'look Trump will lose because he says mean things' people had in 2016.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/WCCO/status/1265804978792341504

Voters may be sympathetic to the man murdered but not this !