AZ-Higherground: Kelly+10
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  AZ-Higherground: Kelly+10
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Author Topic: AZ-Higherground: Kelly+10  (Read 2056 times)
ajc0918
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« on: May 27, 2020, 08:15:46 AM »



Quote
Q. If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Martha McSally or Democrat Mark Kelly?

41.3%  Martha McSally
51.3%  Mark Kelly
1.8%    Some other candidate
5.8%    Donít know, Refused

Quote
               Maricopa    Pima    Rural

McSally       36.5%      36.8%   59.7%
Kelly           56.9%      54.4%   31.2%

https://www.azhighground.com/blog/post/astronaut-kelly-soaring-over-incumbent-mcsally-in-latest-az-survey
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2020, 09:32:37 AM »

Has she led in a single poll?
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2020, 09:51:26 AM »

She led narrowly in some early polls and in one sponsored by her campaign in January but other than that, Kelly has been leading
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2020, 10:13:03 AM »

Goddamn, McCrappy lmao
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2020, 10:18:47 AM »

OMG, and this poll only has Biden +2 too.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2020, 10:19:28 AM »

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Panda Express
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2020, 11:01:30 AM »

This is why you don't appoint losers to the Senate
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2020, 11:05:11 AM »

This one is over, folks
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2020, 11:11:46 AM »

Don't see Kelly winning by double digits, but this at least Lean D as we speak. If the election was held today, Kelly would end up winning by ~ 5 pts.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2020, 11:24:05 AM »

Kelly willl probably win, but I think the Presidential race is gonna be much closer considering Biden was only up 2 compared to Kelly's 10 point lead
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2020, 11:30:19 AM »

Ouch, underperforming Trump by 8. Really donít see how this becomes a ďWI-SEN 2016 reduxĒ, since I donít see Democrats cutting all spending in this race.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2020, 11:36:46 AM »

As I stated before, Collins, Ernst and SMC may win, but the other states KS, MT, NC, the Rs may lose, due to Females and Barry Goldwater conservatism, Chuck Todd ratings not Sabato or Cook
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2020, 11:38:38 AM »

McSally is close to done at this point, underperforming Trump by 8 in a state like AZ will certainly doom her. Lean D, much closer to Likely than Tossup
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UWS
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« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2020, 11:39:50 AM »


 Not if McSally goes on offense on Mark Kelly's business record will likely haunt him. In effect, built on a company using taxpayer-subsidized seed money and capital funding from a Chinese technology company willing to censor as needed that has stoked U.S. national-security anxieties. And by emphasizing on it as well as on Biden's record of weakness on China, I think we McSally can pull up a win in Arizona.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/14/senate-elections-2020-mark-kelly-business-ties-chinese-tech-firm-under-fire/5187587002/
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2020, 11:43:10 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2020, 04:34:30 PM by Make PA Blue Again! »

This woman is really about to lose her party two senate seats in the course of two years.

Has anything like this ever happened?
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2020, 11:43:35 AM »

It's over McSally, I have the Higherground!
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2020, 11:47:47 AM »

Very low sample size, & Kelly running 8 points ahead of Biden seems extreme, but OTOH, this could end up being a VA-SEN 2008 redux for all intents & purposes: a popular Democrat with strong clout in the swingy regions of the state running for Senate against a Republican who no longer fit the state; said Democrat goes on to win by a tectonic landslide on Election Day while the presidential nominee (comparatively speaking) wins much more narrowly. I could see the same thing happening here in Arizona.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2020, 11:48:29 AM »


 Not if McSally goes on offense on Mark Kelly's business record will likely haunt him. In effect, built on a company using taxpayer-subsidized seed money and capital funding from a Chinese technology company willing to censor as needed that has stoked U.S. national-security anxieties. And by emphasizing on it as well as on Biden's record of weakness on China, I think we McSally can pull up a win in Arizona.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/14/senate-elections-2020-mark-kelly-business-ties-chinese-tech-firm-under-fire/5187587002/

That seems a bit too complicated for the average Joe-Schmo voter.  I feel as though the message of "McSally lost, yet she was gifted a seat anyway" is a lot simpler and carries more weight.  
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2020, 02:17:39 PM »

Wow, McSally is an atrocious candidate.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #19 on: May 27, 2020, 02:18:59 PM »

If Mcsally couldn't win when she was promoted as "the GOP's strongest recruit this cycle" in 2018 against a so labeled weak candidate "pink Prada socialist" than she most definitely wont win against a stronger candidate like Kelly
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2020, 02:19:29 PM »


 Not if McSally goes on offense on Mark Kelly's business record will likely haunt him. In effect, built on a company using taxpayer-subsidized seed money and capital funding from a Chinese technology company willing to censor as needed that has stoked U.S. national-security anxieties. And by emphasizing on it as well as on Biden's record of weakness on China, I think we McSally can pull up a win in Arizona.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/14/senate-elections-2020-mark-kelly-business-ties-chinese-tech-firm-under-fire/5187587002/

Polling shows that Trump is weaker on China than Biden.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2020, 02:52:05 PM »

Voters really do not like repeat candidates named Martha!
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2020, 03:37:51 PM »

She led narrowly in some early polls and in one sponsored by her campaign in January but other than that, Kelly has been leading

Yea, January.  Sure.

January 2019.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2020, 03:39:59 PM »


https://youtu.be/BOFYvnOmqDQ?t=45
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2020, 03:41:04 PM »

She led narrowly in some early polls and in one sponsored by her campaign in January but other than that, Kelly has been leading

Yea, January.  Sure.

January 2019.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000170-bd26-ddcc-a9fe-bdbe57bd0000
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