Why were the Conservatives (UK) unable to win a majority in 2010?

[CumbrianLefty]

Also the Tory campaigning in the run up to the GE was more than a bit uncertain and complacent, they were maybe discomfited by the clear narrowing of the big poll leads they had for most of 2008-09. This was maybe also one reason why Cleggmania took off like it did during the actual election.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour had been in power for 13 years, Brown was unpopular and uncharismatic to boot, the economy was doing terrible, Labour had led the country to an unpopular war, and Cameron was a young fresh face for the Tories who had moved them closer to the middle of the political spectrum, plus he was quite good at communication. In spite of all this, not only was the election not a landslide, but Cameron failed to even win an overall majority. Why was this?

Idk why so many of you peddle this historical revisionism... people still seen him as a posh boy/Tory toff.

He still was that, *relatively* speaking. Most stuff in politics is relative at the end of the day.

[CumbrianLefty]

That's actually a 10 point *swing*, soz

(don't really want to imagine what Tories on 65% and Labour on 13% would look like, thanks)

[CumbrianLefty]

At that point the lib dems could probably replace Labour as the official opposition as well

Which just shows how unlikely that prospect actually is. Thankfully.

[CumbrianLefty]

So.......what would Labour 53% Tories 25% in 2024 look like?

(we can dream)

[CumbrianLefty]

So.......what would Labour 53% Tories 25% in 2024 look like?

(we can dream)

From the same site I used for the other projections:

Lab 435
Con 94
SNP 49
Lib Dems 46

So Lib Dems+SNP would narrowly beat the tories interestingly

And for fun yet another swing to 63% Labour, 15% Conservative leaves the conservatives with only 6 seats lol (Boston and Skegness, South Holland and the Deepings, Maldon, Castle Point, Christchurch and North Dorset)

Lib Dems on 58, SNP on 42 and Labour at a whopping 520

And the last named would almost certainly actually go LibDem in those circumstances

[CumbrianLefty]

In 2011, Bloc MP Maria Mourani managed to survive despite winning her seat by less than 1% in the previous election, thanks to a peculiar three way split.

Liberals narrowly trailing in 2008 and NDP a poor 4th then - but a close second in 2011.

[CumbrianLefty]

How the SNP managed to regain their iron grip on Scotland at the last GE, after having it seriously weakened by both Tories and Labour in 2017, is something that I have barely seen pondered since then at all. Was it really (as in England and Wales) majorly about Brexit?

[CumbrianLefty]

It was at the upper end of expectations at the time, certainly.