Why were the Conservatives (UK) unable to win a majority in 2010?
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  Why were the Conservatives (UK) unable to win a majority in 2010?
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Author Topic: Why were the Conservatives (UK) unable to win a majority in 2010?  (Read 2005 times)
Don Vito Corleone
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« on: May 27, 2020, 05:43:44 AM »
« edited: May 27, 2020, 06:15:47 AM by Don Vito Corleone »

Labour had been in power for 13 years, Brown was unpopular and uncharismatic to boot, the economy was doing terrible, Labour had led the country to an unpopular war, and Cameron was a young fresh face for the Tories who had moved them closer to the middle of the political spectrum, plus he was quite good at communication. In spite of all this, not only was the election not a landslide, but Cameron failed to even win an overall majority. Why was this?
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DaWN
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2020, 05:48:45 AM »

1) The Liberal Democrats won a large number of seats that prior to 1997 (and indeed now) were safely Conservative, which meant the Tories would have needed a larger number of gains from Labour than it appeared on paper to win a majority.

2) The Tories were still not completely trusted - the memories of the Thatcher/Major years still remained and the stink of the 'nasty party' remained, plus Cameron's 'attempts to move the party to the centre' were seen by many as the utter sham they were.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2020, 06:23:41 AM »

The campaign saw a significant firming up of the Labour vote, largely driven by continuing distrust of the Tories and suspicion that they were going to reverse some of the major achievements of the 1997-2010 period.
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vileplume
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2020, 06:25:11 AM »

A handful of reasons really:

1)Cleggmania. Whilst it never materialised to the extent that it was hyped in the media it did likely prevent Tory gains in Lib Dem seats that would have otherwise happened (Somerton, Sutton, Chippenham etc.) along with causing a couple of losses (Eastbourne, Wells).

2)Cameron heavily targeted 'liberal, metropolitan' types but even with his 'hug a hoodie' campaign, desire for the party to 'stop banging on about Europe' (lol) and 'modernisation' project particularly on things like gay rights, such people were still too suspicious of the Tories to put a cross in their box. This was exasperated by the fact that the Lib Dems became a viable non-Tory option for these types of people who wanted Labour out of office. Had the Lib Dems instead collapsed over the campaign Cameron's strategy may have been more effective.

3)Labour's vote proved to be surprisingly efficient (258 seats on a measly 29% of the vote isn't bad going at all). Now a lot of this was down to Scotland still being a Labour fortress back then but it was also partly down to Labour narrowly holding several northern/midlands seats that the Tories could have won with a campaign more targeted towards them (think Bolton West, Middlesbrough South, Newcastle-under-Lyme etc.) and less towards metropolitan liberals. Conversely if things had gone just a bit better for Labour/worse for the Tories it's quite conceivable that the likes of Cannock Chase, North Warwickshire, Amber Valley etc. (all now essentially safe Tory seats) would have been Labour holds meaning Cameron could well have failed to form a government at all.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2020, 07:50:34 AM »

Also the Tory campaigning in the run up to the GE was more than a bit uncertain and complacent, they were maybe discomfited by the clear narrowing of the big poll leads they had for most of 2008-09. This was maybe also one reason why Cleggmania took off like it did during the actual election.
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Blair
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2020, 08:34:35 AM »

There's a mythology in Labour that the ground game in the election stopped a majority; I don't know how true this is but there's certainly a handful of seats where the Labour vote was dragged out.

Peter Mandelson and others had stablised the party in terms of its messaging; there was a period between 08-09 when the party was facing a complete rout.

You still hear some tories blame Cameron for his failure; he'd done well in modernising the party & the message but he never reached Blair/Thatcher levels in terms of his crossover into seats that shouldn't be supporting him. I was of course too young to follow it closely in the way that helps but I seem to recall he was seen to have had an average campaign?

The one thing I can remember is that it was expected that there was a high chance the next Parliament would be a hung one.

Although his gain of 96 seats is still one of the highest for the party for years- ultimately it was an extremely big hurdle for the party to pick up those extra seats, when as others have said you had still had the Scottish firewall for Labour & the Liberal stronghold in the South West.

It meant the Tories were targetting seats like Tooting & Hampstead for a majority.

To think aloud this has made me realise how much our electoral map has changed in the last 10 years; surely the differences between 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019 are of the biggest & most erractic set of changes without a change in the franchise?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2020, 12:12:35 PM »

To think aloud this has made me realise how much our electoral map has changed in the last 10 years; surely the differences between 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019 are of the biggest & most erractic set of changes without a change in the franchise?

And as the shifts between elections have not been in any one firm direction each time, well, we can expect this to continue. Of course none of this should really be a surprise: social surveys show that less than half of the electorate has any identification with any party and that those voters who do are more conditional in their support than was once the case. It might now be useful for observers of British politics to pay closer attention to how elections work in Canada...
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Blair
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2020, 01:50:16 PM »

To think aloud this has made me realise how much our electoral map has changed in the last 10 years; surely the differences between 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019 are of the biggest & most erractic set of changes without a change in the franchise?

And as the shifts between elections have not been in any one firm direction each time, well, we can expect this to continue. Of course none of this should really be a surprise: social surveys show that less than half of the electorate has any identification with any party and that those voters who do are more conditional in their support than was once the case. It might now be useful for observers of British politics to pay closer attention to how elections work in Canada...

Very true & both Brexit+Scottish Independence proved to be bulldozers which helped to erase long time loyalities; although I'm actually less clear on Scotland after the last set of results- the Scottish Parliamentary elections will be interesting next year.
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Blair
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2020, 01:52:24 PM »

It's fascinating how many previously Tory held seats in 2010 now have Labour majorities reaching 10K while Labour held seats have Tory majorities of 15K (and a good chunk of these were moving this way before 2019)
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2020, 02:05:46 PM »

Part of the issue was that they didn’t actually gain that many votes from Labour, they went up by 3% but Labour went down 6-7% and although a chunk went to the Tories it also went to minor parties and the Lib Dem’s. UKIP and the BNP combined gained 2% chiefly from Labour but usually in seats the Tory brand was too tainted to win in at this point, Pre-Brexit.

Also whilst Cameron did a good - and unsung - job at winning back some Lib Dem votes (why the Lib Dem’s suffered a net loss of seats; Romsey, Camborne etc) this didn’t translate to enough seats for an outright majority.

Basically, the Lib Dem’s won too many right leaning voters, chiefly concentrated in 40-60 Rural seats, for the Tories to get a majority. Their majority - such as it was - 2015-19 was based largely on winning those dozens of Lib Dem seats they hadn’t in 2010. Combined with the fact that they made absolutely no inroads in to Scotland due to Gordon Browns popularity there, only winning one seat like they had in 2001 and 2005.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2020, 06:06:04 PM »

Labour had been in power for 13 years, Brown was unpopular and uncharismatic to boot, the economy was doing terrible, Labour had led the country to an unpopular war, and Cameron was a young fresh face for the Tories who had moved them closer to the middle of the political spectrum, plus he was quite good at communication. In spite of all this, not only was the election not a landslide, but Cameron failed to even win an overall majority. Why was this?

Idk why so many of you peddle this historical revisionism... people still seen him as a posh boy/Tory toff.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2020, 08:48:31 PM »

Clegg had too much of a hold on the demographics Cameron wanted to break through with.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2020, 05:58:51 AM »

Labour had been in power for 13 years, Brown was unpopular and uncharismatic to boot, the economy was doing terrible, Labour had led the country to an unpopular war, and Cameron was a young fresh face for the Tories who had moved them closer to the middle of the political spectrum, plus he was quite good at communication. In spite of all this, not only was the election not a landslide, but Cameron failed to even win an overall majority. Why was this?

Idk why so many of you peddle this historical revisionism... people still seen him as a posh boy/Tory toff.

He still was that, *relatively* speaking. Most stuff in politics is relative at the end of the day.
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Blair
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2020, 06:05:53 AM »

Labour had been in power for 13 years, Brown was unpopular and uncharismatic to boot, the economy was doing terrible, Labour had led the country to an unpopular war, and Cameron was a young fresh face for the Tories who had moved them closer to the middle of the political spectrum, plus he was quite good at communication. In spite of all this, not only was the election not a landslide, but Cameron failed to even win an overall majority. Why was this?

Idk why so many of you peddle this historical revisionism... people still seen him as a posh boy/Tory toff.

I always wondered how effective an attack line this was; I remember Brown's point about the a tax plan being drawn up 'on the playing fields of Eton' but yeah Cameron did actually do very well at winning over affluent parts of the country- especially in London.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2020, 09:00:58 AM »

To think aloud this has made me realise how much our electoral map has changed in the last 10 years; surely the differences between 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019 are of the biggest & most erractic set of changes without a change in the franchise?

And as the shifts between elections have not been in any one firm direction each time, well, we can expect this to continue. Of course none of this should really be a surprise: social surveys show that less than half of the electorate has any identification with any party and that those voters who do are more conditional in their support than was once the case. It might now be useful for observers of British politics to pay closer attention to how elections work in Canada...

I for one welcome Britain having routine 20 point swings Cheesy
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2020, 09:59:11 AM »

To think aloud this has made me realise how much our electoral map has changed in the last 10 years; surely the differences between 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019 are of the biggest & most erractic set of changes without a change in the franchise?

And as the shifts between elections have not been in any one firm direction each time, well, we can expect this to continue. Of course none of this should really be a surprise: social surveys show that less than half of the electorate has any identification with any party and that those voters who do are more conditional in their support than was once the case. It might now be useful for observers of British politics to pay closer attention to how elections work in Canada...

I for one welcome Britain having routine 20 point swings Cheesy

A 20 point swing next time would be nice!
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2020, 11:28:54 AM »

To think aloud this has made me realise how much our electoral map has changed in the last 10 years; surely the differences between 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019 are of the biggest & most erractic set of changes without a change in the franchise?

And as the shifts between elections have not been in any one firm direction each time, well, we can expect this to continue. Of course none of this should really be a surprise: social surveys show that less than half of the electorate has any identification with any party and that those voters who do are more conditional in their support than was once the case. It might now be useful for observers of British politics to pay closer attention to how elections work in Canada...

I for one welcome Britain having routine 20 point swings Cheesy

A 20 point swing next time would be nice!

Be careful what you wish for because you may receive it Tongue

United Kingdom General election, 2024:

Con: 55% (469)
Lab: 23% (103)
Lib: 12% (9)
SNP: 4% (47)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2020, 11:49:16 AM »

That's actually a 10 point *swing*, soz Tongue

(don't really want to imagine what Tories on 65% and Labour on 13% would look like, thanks)
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #18 on: May 29, 2020, 12:56:33 PM »

That's actually a 10 point *swing*, soz Tongue

(don't really want to imagine what Tories on 65% and Labour on 13% would look like, thanks)

Permanent submission to our etonian overlords

At that point the lib dems could probably replace Labour as the official opposition as well
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #19 on: May 29, 2020, 12:58:12 PM »

At that point the lib dems could probably replace Labour as the official opposition as well

Which just shows how unlikely that prospect actually is. Thankfully.
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DaWN
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« Reply #20 on: May 29, 2020, 01:00:23 PM »

A year ago that would have been such a wonderful prospect. With an actual functioning human adult in charge of the Labour party it is no longer necessary Smiley
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2020, 01:20:58 PM »

That's actually a 10 point *swing*, soz Tongue

(don't really want to imagine what Tories on 65% and Labour on 13% would look like, thanks)

Permanent submission to our etonian overlords

At that point the lib dems could probably replace Labour as the official opposition as well

Actually even at 65-13; Labour still beats the Lib Dems in terms of seats 41-9. The Tories get 535 seats and the SNP gets the title of official opposition at 42 seats, beating Labour by 1 seat

I remember back when there was a 4 way tie between Labour, the Lib Dems, the Conservatives and Brexit Party this was kind of an interesting point, that in a "total and utter collapse" scenario the Tories could easily go into the single digit number of seats or even get none whatsoever while Labour had around 40-50 truly 100% safe seats even if they somehow came in 4th
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #22 on: May 29, 2020, 02:18:14 PM »

Actually even at 65-13; Labour still beats the Lib Dems in terms of seats 41-9. The Tories get 535 seats and the SNP gets the title of official opposition at 42 seats, beating Labour by 1 seat

I remember back when there was a 4 way tie between Labour, the Lib Dems, the Conservatives and Brexit Party this was kind of an interesting point, that in a "total and utter collapse" scenario the Tories could easily go into the single digit number of seats or even get none whatsoever while Labour had around 40-50 truly 100% safe seats even if they somehow came in 4th

I guess if its a straight lab to con swing yeah, in my head I was imagining some of the Labour vote going to the lib dems.

Yeah I remember last year when the Brexit Party and Libs were leading in the polls, part of me just wanted there to be an election where the Conservatives and Labour both got wiped out just to witness the political chaos that would result. Probably good that didn't happen.
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« Reply #23 on: May 29, 2020, 04:10:35 PM »

There's a mythology in Labour that the ground game in the election stopped a majority; I don't know how true this is but there's certainly a handful of seats where the Labour vote was dragged out.

Peter Mandelson and others had stablised the party in terms of its messaging; there was a period between 08-09 when the party was facing a complete rout.



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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #24 on: May 30, 2020, 07:34:40 AM »

So.......what would Labour 53% Tories 25% in 2024 look like?

(we can dream)
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