Why were the Conservatives (UK) unable to win a majority in 2010?

[Former President tack50]

To think aloud this has made me realise how much our electoral map has changed in the last 10 years; surely the differences between 2010, 2015, 2017 & 2019 are of the biggest & most erractic set of changes without a change in the franchise?

And as the shifts between elections have not been in any one firm direction each time, well, we can expect this to continue. Of course none of this should really be a surprise: social surveys show that less than half of the electorate has any identification with any party and that those voters who do are more conditional in their support than was once the case. It might now be useful for observers of British politics to pay closer attention to how elections work in Canada...

I for one welcome Britain having routine 20 point swings

A 20 point swing next time would be nice!

Be careful what you wish for because you may receive it

United Kingdom General election, 2024:

Con: 55% (469)
Lab: 23% (103)
Lib: 12% (9)
SNP: 4% (47)

[Former President tack50]

That's actually a 10 point *swing*, soz

(don't really want to imagine what Tories on 65% and Labour on 13% would look like, thanks)

Permanent submission to our etonian overlords

At that point the lib dems could probably replace Labour as the official opposition as well

Actually even at 65-13; Labour still beats the Lib Dems in terms of seats 41-9. The Tories get 535 seats and the SNP gets the title of official opposition at 42 seats, beating Labour by 1 seat

I remember back when there was a 4 way tie between Labour, the Lib Dems, the Conservatives and Brexit Party this was kind of an interesting point, that in a "total and utter collapse" scenario the Tories could easily go into the single digit number of seats or even get none whatsoever while Labour had around 40-50 truly 100% safe seats even if they somehow came in 4th

[Former President tack50]

So.......what would Labour 53% Tories 25% in 2024 look like?

(we can dream)

From the same site I used for the other projections:

Lab 435
Con 94
SNP 49
Lib Dems 46

So Lib Dems+SNP would narrowly beat the tories interestingly

And for fun yet another swing to 63% Labour, 15% Conservative leaves the conservatives with only 6 seats lol (Boston and Skegness, South Holland and the Deepings, Maldon, Castle Point, Christchurch and North Dorset)

Lib Dems on 58, SNP on 42 and Labour at a whopping 520