Rate NY-02

[I’m not Stu]

Rate NY-02. The seat is open.

[Suburbia]

Lean R.

If LiPetri wins, Democrats should watch out. That guy is going to make criminal justice advocates lives a living hell with the police-community relations issue. That's all he talks about. I live in the tri-state area and I see him on TV all the time.

[Orwell]

Lean R.

If LiPetri wins, Democrats should watch out. That guy is going to make criminal justice advocates lives a living hell with the police-community relations issue. That's all he talks about. I live in the tri-state area and I see him on TV all the time.

What else is there to run on as a Long Island GOPer? Lower Property Taxes and Police = Good!

[I’m not Stu]

I haven't found any primary polls. Who wins the Republican primary?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean R.

If LiPetri wins, Democrats should watch out. That guy is going to make criminal justice advocates lives a living hell with the police-community relations issue. That's all he talks about. I live in the tri-state area and I see him on TV all the time.

What else is there to run on as a Long Island GOPer? Lower Property Taxes and Police = Good!

Typically the people who move far out to the suburban parts of long islad are more conservative want want to avoid the city for some reason; some of it might be racism, but some of it is to avoid NYC taxes and property prices, while still having acess to the city.

[Storr]

What's the Democratic primary field look like? Anyone promising or a bunch of nobodies?

[Suburbia]

Lean R.

If LiPetri wins, Democrats should watch out. That guy is going to make criminal justice advocates lives a living hell with the police-community relations issue. That's all he talks about. I live in the tri-state area and I see him on TV all the time.

What else is there to run on as a Long Island GOPer? Lower Property Taxes and Police = Good!

Typically the people who move far out to the suburban parts of long islad are more conservative want want to avoid the city for some reason; some of it might be racism, but some of it is to avoid NYC taxes and property prices, while still having acess to the city.

They like the city's tourist attractions, etc, they use the LIRR to Penn Station to go to New York Rangers games, etc. They are essentially the Giuliani-Lazio-Gulotta-King-LiPetri base.

The Democrats are perceived as soft on crime, so this is what the Democrats are up against:

https://twitter.com/NomikiKonst/status/1059574497106386946

[Suburbia]

What's the Democratic primary field look like? Anyone promising or a bunch of nobodies?

Jackie Gordon, a black woman, she is an immigrant from Jamaica who worked her way up. But LiPetri or Garbarino would give her a challenge, and I rate it as Lean R--as of now.


https://jackiegordonforcongress.com/
https://jackiegordonforcongress.com/#meet-jackie

[I’m not Stu]

What's the Democratic primary field look like? Anyone promising or a bunch of nobodies?

Jackie Gordon, a black woman, she is an immigrant from Jamaica who worked her way up. But LiPetri or Garbarino would give her a challenge, and I rate it as Lean R--as of now.


https://jackiegordonforcongress.com/
https://jackiegordonforcongress.com/#meet-jackie

I would rate NY-02 a tossup. Fun fact: Jackie Gordon isn’t the only black Jamaican immigrant nominee for the House. A man named Errol Webber, who is also an immigrant from Jamaica, is the Republican nominee in CA-37.

[Xing]

I’d like to be more optimistic about this seat, but for now I have to say at least Lean R, maybe Likely R.

[Suburbia]

Lean R, law and Order will play here

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Lean R, law and Order will play here

Law and order is a very overhyped talking point.

[Gracile]

Lean R. It could be winnable to Democrats if Biden ends up winning the PV by a substantial margin (and it helps that it is open), but at the moment it seems like a tough lift. It's still a far better target than NY-01, though.

[Suburbia]

Yea, Lean R.

Jackie Gordon's goal should be to appeal to those Italian-American suburban women who despise police chokeholds, because LiPetri voted against police reform this week.

https://twitter.com/TheMikeLiPetri/status/1270108716986236930

LiPetri 52%
Gordon 48%

Garbarino 52%
Gordon 48%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean R

[NewYorkExpress]

Tilt R.

Not having King as the incumbent makes this a lot easier a win for the Democrats.

If they don't win the seat in this climate, it largely will be because of candidate recruitment (for example, Steve Bellone would have been a much stronger candidate.).

[Suburbia]

Tilt R.

Not having King as the incumbent makes this a lot easier a win for the Democrats.

If they don't win the seat in this climate, it largely will be because of candidate recruitment (for example, Steve Bellone would have been a much stronger candidate.).

True. I dont but to be offensive, but I don't think that Jackie Gordon being a black woman in that climate on LI would work right now.

[NewYorkExpress]

Tilt R.

Not having King as the incumbent makes this a lot easier a win for the Democrats.

If they don't win the seat in this climate, it largely will be because of candidate recruitment (for example, Steve Bellone would have been a much stronger candidate.).

True. I dont but to be offensive, but I don't think that Jackie Gordon being a black woman in that climate on LI would work right now.

It's not going to help her, but it isn't going to hurt her in the same way it would hurt her upstate for example.

[Suburbia]

October update:

Lean R, still, Garbarino by 3

LiPetri would have seen it be Likely R/Safe R

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt D, and (hot take) it would have been Tilt D with King as well.

[LabourJersey]

Lean D/Likely D

[Suburbia]

Lean D/Likely D

I don't think so.

Law and order runs well there, and Garbarino is running on that nonstop.

Tilt R/Tossup