Breaking news from CA-24

[Citizen James]

Interesting....

It seems that the congressman from my district has decided not to run again for 'medical reasons'.  Though I disagree with his politics, I wish him speedy recovery in whatever ails him.

Meanwhile, we may have a somewhat competitive race in this district for a change.  It is gerrymandered somewhat conservative with the inclusion of the very conservative Simi Valley, but without the incumbent advantage and an open race the voting patterns in the rest of the district make an upset a real possibility.

Source from the local newspaper.

[zorkpolitics]

Bush won this district with 56% so it favors Reublicans, but today was the filing deadline and no one else filed.  Now if this was NJ the courts would allow a replacment, but what is the CA law?  Could this need a write-in campaign in the primary?

[Sam Spade]

Looks to me like there's no other Republican running for the CD and there are two Democrats running in the contest.  Is the filing deadline over with?

Otherwise, we could be seeing an OH-06 in reverse. 

[Sam Spade]

Bush won this district with 56% so it favors Reublicans, but today was the filing deadline and no one else filed.  Now if this was NJ the courts would allow a replacment, but what is the CA law?  Could this need a write-in campaign in the primary?

Thanks for the answer. 

All I have to say is lol. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The CA-22 Republican retired with a little more advance notice (Monday). The 2 districts share a long border.

[Sam Spade]

From my reading of a well-known conservative site, it appears like an unknown lawyer, Michael Tenenbaum, filed for the seat today in the GOP primary.  This hasn't appeared on the California SOS site yet and whether this is accurate or not, I dunno.

Given this, it looks like to me that we could be facing three non-entities (the two Democrats are "out there" candidates frankly) running for election to the seat (you don't see that too often).

That leads me to think there may be a write-in candidacy on both sides with preferred candidates.  Rather amusing in all.

[Citizen James]

From my reading of a well-known conservative site, it appears like an unknown lawyer, Michael Tenenbaum, filed for the seat today in the GOP primary.  This hasn't appeared on the California SOS site yet and whether this is accurate or not, I dunno.

Given this, it looks like to me that we could be facing three non-entities (the two Democrats are "out there" candidates frankly) running for election to the seat (you don't see that too often).

That leads me to think there may be a write-in candidacy on both sides with preferred candidates.  Rather amusing in all.

According to the local paper (reg. req'd) it does appear to be the case that Tenenbaum has filed already - having wanted to file to run against Galgegly.  I don't have enough info about the various candidates (yet) to make any serious judgement calls about their politics though.

[Alcon]

Michael Tenenbaum may have just become the luckiest bastard in the United States.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Still only Gallegy and the 2 Democrats listed here:

http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/election_2006/status/status_03_11_1230pm_contest.pdf

Edit; Although I suppose not everything has been processed yet, seeing as no one is listed for CA-50, CA-52, or CA-53

[Sam Spade]

Michael Tenenbaum may have just become the luckiest bastard in the United States.

Maybe.

This is a fairly well-educated and affluent CD, iirc (if I'm wrong, please tell me).

As opposed to the present situation in OH-06 (which is a fairly rural and working class CD), one would think a write-in candidacy wouldn't be quite that hard to mount if a named Republican or Democrat was interested. 

Histircially, write-in candidacies have had much more success in this types of districts than anywhere else.

As I remember, Tom McClintock is from this CD, though I doubt he would give up running for Lt. Governor for this.

Who are the other major names from the area (Democrat or Republican) who might be interested in the seat?  I yield to the California posters on this.

[Sam Spade]

From my reading of a well-known conservative site, it appears like an unknown lawyer, Michael Tenenbaum, filed for the seat today in the GOP primary.  This hasn't appeared on the California SOS site yet and whether this is accurate or not, I dunno.

Given this, it looks like to me that we could be facing three non-entities (the two Democrats are "out there" candidates frankly) running for election to the seat (you don't see that too often).

That leads me to think there may be a write-in candidacy on both sides with preferred candidates.  Rather amusing in all.

According to the local paper (reg. req'd) it does appear to be the case that Tenenbaum has filed already - having wanted to file to run against Galgegly.  I don't have enough info about the various candidates (yet) to make any serious judgement calls about their politics though.

The two Democrats are, according to CQ's reporting:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/03/ca_24_gallegly_will_not_seek_r.html

According to the California secretary of state Web site, two Democrats have filed for the seat: Jill Martinez, a Presbyterian minister and affordable housing activist, and Mary Pallant, who said in a posting on the Daily Kos blog site that she is a former Republican who switched parties because she “saw the principles of American democracy systematically dismantled by the emergence of the neoconservative movement.”

Both sound like non-entities to me.

Michael Tenenbaum is a Harvard-educated lawyer and an associate at Sullivan and Cromwell.  Otherwise, we know nothing on him either.

Color me confused.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, it's really easy to do a write-in candidacy. For non-statewide offices in California it's 40 signatures from that district. For statewide offices it's only 65 signatures. Due by May 23rd.

[Yates]

Is the name pronounced "GAllegly" or "galLEGly?"

[Sam Spade]

Wow, it's really easy to do a write-in candidacy. For non-statewide offices in California it's 40 signatures from that district. For statewide offices it's only 65 signatures. Due by May 23rd.

Heh.  You should run for office, fern. 

[nini2287]

I think phknrocket's from CA-24 maybe he can give us some more info.

[socaldem]

From my reading of a well-known conservative site, it appears like an unknown lawyer, Michael Tenenbaum, filed for the seat today in the GOP primary.  This hasn't appeared on the California SOS site yet and whether this is accurate or not, I dunno.

Given this, it looks like to me that we could be facing three non-entities (the two Democrats are "out there" candidates frankly) running for election to the seat (you don't see that too often).

That leads me to think there may be a write-in candidacy on both sides with preferred candidates.  Rather amusing in all.

It seems to me that the Republicans are pretty certain to retain the seat given that the Harvard-educated GOPer Tenenbaum seems like a better candidate than either of the Democrats.  Mary Pallant, who lost a race for city council in the tiny city of Oak Park, gettng only 8% of the vote, is a joke.  Jill Martinez, who appears to live outside the district in Oxnard, and seems to be a "social gospel"-type clergy womandoesn't exactly seem like a very good fit for the district...

With Ventura and Santa Barbara counties divided so that the Democratic parts are packed into Lois Capps' district and the conservative parts are in Gallegly's district, Democrats probably wouldn't have much of a chance, even under the best circumstances.  Still, the best Democratic candidates would probably be from the Ventura county board of supervisors with either Linda Parks or Steve Bennett.  However, of course, they have the same problem that the credible Republicans do--they're not on the ballot!

As others have mentioned, I would expect to see other GOPers attempt write-in campaigns.  The problem, though, that many of them may have is not that all of the local GOP legislators are already on the ballot for other positions and are not allowed to remove themselves at this point, preventing them from also pursuing the congressional nod.  That eliminates GOP LG candidate and state senator Tom McClintock, state senator and Controller candidate Tony Strickland and his wife state Rep. Audra Strickland, who is seeking reelection. 

I would assume that Gallegly ally Glen Becerra, a Simi Valley councilman, is would be the best  write-in candidate for the GOP.  There are a number of other prominant municipal-level Republicans who might also want to give an open seat a shot. 

[Citizen James]

Is the name pronounced "GAllegly" or "galLEGly?"

The second, I think.

That's how I tend to pronounce it anyway.

[phk]

I think phknrocket's from CA-24 maybe he can give us some more info.

I'm from CA-19

[minionofmidas]

LMFAO!

(source for all the following: politics1)

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

CALIFORNIA. Congressman Elton Gallegly (R) gets the award for the "worst choreographed" retirement in years. Gallegly waited until just before the close of candidate filing in California on Friday to release a statement announcing he was quitting his race for re-election due to an undisclosed health concern. The statement came without notice even to Gallegly's own district staff, who learned of it from media calls. Apparently, Gallegly mistakenly believed his public statement would serve to "un-file" his candidacy and allow filing to remain open for one additional week because he was an incumbent unexpectedly withdrawing. It didn't, however, because Gallegly had previously filed the paperwork to run. According to the Secretary of State's office, a candidate cannot legally remove his name from the ballot once he qualified and the filing deadline passed. Former California GOP Executive Director Jon Fleischman speculated on his FlashReport blog that Gallegly's bizarre timing was likely intended to thwart the ambitions of rival Republican Tony Strickland. Strickland, a former State Assemblyman, is running for State Controller. The timing apparently locked Strickland into the statewide race without giving him the opportunity to jump into the newly open CD-24 contest. Gallegly was the only Republican to file in CD-24. What does all of this mean? Most likely, Gallegly will need to remain on the primary ballot so that -- once he officially becomes the nominee after the June 6 primary -- the party will be allowed to select a replacement nominee. Two Dems also filed for the seat, but the district is safely Republican.

TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

CALIFORNIA. The comically inept retirement saga of Congressman Elton Gallegly (R) continues to get worse. Gallegly -- who bungled his last minute attempt to retire -- now finds himself forced to seek reelection to an office he no longer desires to hold. It appears little-known Republican attorney Michael Tenenbaum filed at the last minute to run against Gallegly in the primary. As of the close of business on March 13, Tenenbaum was still not listed on the Secretary of State's website as a qualified candidate for the primary ballot -- but news reports indicate he qualified through his local elections office. The news will now force Gallegly to actively campaign for the primary just so he can then subsequently quit in order to have GOP leaders select a replacement nominee. Tenenbaum was not a fan of the incumbent. Gallegly "is wasting taxpayer dollars, doesn’t recognize the importance of securing our borders and he has pursued a legislative agenda that is misguided at best," said Tenenbaum, when he filed his paperwork minutes before Gallegly announced his retirement plans. Those kind of statements make Gallegly unlikely to rally behind Tenenbaum as his replacement. However, other district Republicans have resigned themselves to the likelihood Tenenbaum will win the seat. Ventura County GOP Chair Leslie Cornejo told CQPolitics.com it would "be best for our party and our country" for Gallegly to simply withdraw in favor of Tenenbaum. "I believe today that Mr. Tenenbaum will be our next Congressman," said Cornejo.

WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

CALIFORNIA. Here's the latest on the Congressman Elton Gallegly (R) retirement follies. Despite a report from Roll Call that Gallegly planned to abruptly reverse course again and announce for re-election on Tuesday, that report proved false (at least, so far it has). Instead, Gallegly told reporters he wants to explore seeking legal relief in the courts -- and possibly from the state legislature -- to allow an extension of the now-closed filing period. If those efforts are unsuccessful, Gallegly says he would then reconsider his withdrawal from the race. As it looks unlikely Gallegly could legally prevail based upon current California law, he may in fact be forced to run again -- which raises the likely specter of a subsequent Gallegly resignation in early 2007 and a costly special election. Other options are for Gallegly to make it clear he wants to lose the June 6 primary while simultaneously helping some other Republican running as a write-in candidate. Gallegly appears unlikely to support attorney Michael Tenenbaum, who filed to run against him in the primary. However, Moorpark City Councilman Keith Millhouse, former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker, prosecutor Jeff Gorell and others are already openly talking about launching write-in bids in the primary if Gallegly first gives his blessing for their bids. "Everyone is kind of waiting for Elton to do something," said Gorell.

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

CALIFORNIA. It's a miracle! Congressman Elton Gallegly (R) -- less than a week after completely f***ing up his surprise retirement scheme due to an alleged "health concern" -- held a press conference Wednesday to announce he has a "clean bill of health" and will "aggressively" run for one last term in 2006. Gallegly won't disclose the nature of the purported medical problem, but now says he is "100%" and "there is no catastrophic [medical] issue that we have to deal with." President Bush and the House GOP Leadership both pressed Gallegly to run again to keep the seat safely in GOP hands. After five days of stumbling, Gallegly is back in the race. Minister Jill Martinez (D) and attorney Michael Tenenbaum (R) are both challenging Gallegly this year.

[Sam Spade]

lol.  I actually read about this, but hadn't posted on it.  Talk about screwing up royally.

But, if he really "really" is running again, the seat is safe.  Still extremely funny though.