Basically, the polls indicate momentum in the final moments. If you see a Trump collapse at the end he will lose, a Trump boost and he will win, and if it remains stagnant, it would be a tossup.
I partially agree with this, but only partially. The first sentence is correct, but the situation is different than it was in 2016. Trump was within striking distance of Clinton going into the final weeks, which allowed his late momentum to carry him over the finish line. But at present, Trump is in a significantly worse position relative to Biden than he was to Clinton in those final weeks. Trump needs to close the gap between now and October to have any chance of repeating his 2016 performance. If things stay stagnant between now and then (or if he loses further ground), he'll be too far behind to close the gap with a late charge.
That is, it's not a tossup right now; Biden is a clear favorite
right now. That does not mean Biden is guaranteed to win. However, Trump not only has to pull off the same late charge for a second time, he's got to make up ground before then to even get within range.
