I don't want to hear anyone else saying "Clinton was up by more last time!" again

[The Mikado]

Today's date highlighted.



This year.

People keep saying "Clinton was ahead by so much more" or "You can't trust Biden's lead, don't you remember how much Clinton was up by?"

I do remember. And Biden isn't down to Trump right now like Hillary Clinton was.

[CookieDamage]

2016 was so volatile. Hillary got a cycle of good news (usually Trump being awful), rose in the polls, her rise faded, rinse, repeat.

[Podgy the Bear]

Good to put this up.  And we are in a totally different world today from four years ago.  Ridiculous to think that things are going to be the same.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1264563455849385984

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

2016 was so volatile. Hillary got a cycle of good news (usually Trump being awful), rose in the polls, her rise faded, rinse, repeat.

I remember shortly after Trump entered the race in 2015 having a conversation with a friend about his chances in the general election if he got the nomination, and saying something along the lines of "I think it's possible he could win a very narrow victory, and I think it's also possible he could lose every state" and the polling roller coaster in 2016 really lined up with that.

[American2020]

Important information

What's next: AARP will conduct battleground polling later this year to understand what's motivating seniors, says Nancy LeaMond, the group's executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer.

The coronavirus has elevated members' concerns about nursing home safety and demands for more transparency and protections for patients as well as tax relief for family caregivers.
In 2016, she says, candidate Trump had said "very clearly he wasn’t going to cut Social Security, he wasn’t going to cut Medicare."
But by 2018, "It was very clear that the senior vote was kind of up for grabs. The older voter voted to put Donald Trump in the White House, and then in 2018 the older voter moved towards the Democrats. I don’t think it’s a direct referendum. But it was very interesting."
Don't forget: According to the 2020 Almanac of American Politics, many of the most important swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida) have at least slightly larger shares of 65 and older residents than the national average.

States like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are also among the hardest hit by the coronavirus.

https://www.axios.com/biden-polling-seniors-trump-2ff44e93-290f-4bb2-995c-c944e54a2464.html

[heatcharger]

The limitation to this comparison is that Trump had just become the presumptive GOP nominee while Hillary was still dealing with Bernard Sanders at this point. Pretty soon it’ll be more valid to compare the two-way race.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Biden is outpacing Clinton with every group except Black voters. WE NEED A BLACK VP.

[Xing]

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.

[The Mikado]

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.

That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When the economy is good, the Rs always make the sale for tax cuts instead of tax hikes. It worked in 2000, 2004, and we go the Great Recession in 2008 and another Great Recession in 2020, after Trump in 2016.

Every tax cut lead us to a Recession in addition to the ones above 1929 Harding, Coolidge and Hoover tax cuts after Federal Income tax in 1918 and 1992 after the 1981 Reagan tax cuts

[Xing]

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.

That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.

I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what. Most users are simply being more cautious, which is perfectly reasonable this early on.

[Pericles]

The support for both candidates has solidified since 2016. However, this likely benefits Biden more. A 49-43% lead is a lot less vulnerable than a 43-37% lead, even if it's the same margin.

[MT Treasurer]

Honestly, even if he wasn’t ahead by more than Clinton (not just nationally but in several swing states), it’s always foolish to bet on a polling error continuing ad infinitum, especially in national polls (which were nowhere near as inaccurate in 2016 as some people apparently think).

I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what. Most users are simply being more cautious, which is perfectly reasonable this early on.

This board is replete with "Polling was wrong in 2016 as well", "Biden is a worse candidate than Hillary", "Democrats haven’t learned their lesson from 2016", and "Democrats will struggle to win because of polarization and [insert other random buzzwords here]" takes. It’s maybe a slight exaggeration to say "no matter what," but it’s definitely not a straw man.

There’s a difference between being (understandably) cautious (even if you were, however, you’d still recognize that the election is at worst a Tossup for Biden) and being unnecessarily melodramatic. Case in point/similar example: all the post-Nov. 2018 takes on Florida.

[President Johnson]

Thanks for sharing this. Joe Biden does better because (1) he's a much stronger candidate and (2) people have seen Trump in action and screwing things up. He's also done nothing to expand his voter coalition. His coalition is actually shrinking and it barely put him over the finishline last time. Furthermore, there is less third party vote expected this year, which Trump benefited from last time. The entire cycle the numbers are much more stable than in 2016.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thanks for sharing this. Joe Biden does better because (1)he's a much stronger candidate he's a man and (2) people have seen Trump in action and screwing things up. He's also done nothing to expand his voter coalition. His coalition is actually shrinking and it barely put him over the finishline last time. Furthermore, there is less third party vote expected this year, which Trump benefited from last time. The entire cycle the numbers are much more stable than in 2016.

FTFY! Because all of the policy criticisms Hillary received, Biden has done worse. Some of her criticisms came from when she wasn't even in elected office!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Thanks for sharing this. Joe Biden does better because (1)he's a much stronger candidate he's a man and (2) people have seen Trump in action and screwing things up. He's also done nothing to expand his voter coalition. His coalition is actually shrinking and it barely put him over the finishline last time. Furthermore, there is less third party vote expected this year, which Trump benefited from last time. The entire cycle the numbers are much more stable than in 2016.

FTFY! Because all of the policy criticisms Hillary received, Biden has done worse. Some of her criticisms came from when she wasn't even in elected office!

He's a much stronger candidate for lots of other reasons, and "'I'm with Her' lost" = women unelectable" is one of the most frustrating takes because it simultaneously holds female Democrats back and propagates a misunderstanding of what made her so unpopular, increasing the likelihood that the mistakes behind her nomination are repeated down the line.

First and foremost, HRC was Fox and co's Designated Villain for 24 years. That created a massive disadvantage which just couldn't be acquired by Biden/Klobuchar etc. in 4 years. The one to watch here is AOC, who's been the new target for a while now.

[Xing]

I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what. Most users are simply being more cautious, which is perfectly reasonable this early on.

This board is replete with "Polling was wrong in 2016 as well", "Biden is a worse candidate than Hillary", "Democrats haven’t learned their lesson from 2016", and "Democrats will struggle to win because of polarization and [insert other random buzzwords here]" takes. It’s maybe a slight exaggeration to say "no matter what," but it’s definitely not a straw man.

I mean, sure, some people use hyperbole, and assuming that polling will be off just because it was in 2016 is foolish. Saying that polling in general isn’t perfect and that polls could be off, is what I would consider to be being cautious. I think even if some Democrats use hyperbole, a lot of it is based on caution, not an assumption that Trump will definitely win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance. Clinton was up by more, but the thing is that last minute we could see a major Trump revival in the polls. The thing is that the polls may have been wrong in 2016, but they showed Trump's rise late in the game.

Last minute Trump boost in AZ

Last minute Trump boost in MI

Last minute Trump boost in PA

Basically, the polls indicate momentum in the final moments. If you see a Trump collapse at the end he will lose, a Trump boost and he will win, and if it remains stagnant, it would be a tossup.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Basically, the polls indicate momentum in the final moments. If you see a Trump collapse at the end he will lose, a Trump boost and he will win, and if it remains stagnant, it would be a tossup.

I partially agree with this, but only partially.  The first sentence is correct, but the situation is different than it was in 2016.  Trump was within striking distance of Clinton going into the final weeks, which allowed his late momentum to carry him over the finish line.  But at present, Trump is in a significantly worse position relative to Biden than he was to Clinton in those final weeks.  Trump needs to close the gap between now and October to have any chance of repeating his 2016 performance.  If things stay stagnant between now and then (or if he loses further ground), he'll be too far behind to close the gap with a late charge.

That is, it's not a tossup right now; Biden is a clear favorite right now.  That does not mean Biden is guaranteed to win.  However, Trump not only has to pull off the same late charge for a second time, he's got to make up ground before then to even get within range.

[MABA 2020]

First and foremost, HRC was Fox and co's Designated Villain for 24 years. That created a massive disadvantage which just couldn't be acquired by Biden/Klobuchar etc. in 4 years. The one to watch here is AOC, who's been the new target for a while now.

This makes me sad, AOC is fantastic and I'd love to see her run for prez one day, but if she gets the Hillary treatment for the next ten years she'll suffer the same fate

[Beet]

The limitation to this comparison is that Trump had just become the presumptive GOP nominee while Hillary was still dealing with Bernard Sanders at this point. Pretty soon it’ll be more valid to compare the two-way race.

The only post worth reading in this thread. Mikado posting out of context numbers like they mean anything.

[Hammy]

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds

One difference is that in 2016 there was a third party challenger that was polling stronger in polls than he actually ended up doing.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1264563455849385984

Claiming Clinton never hit 48% in the final six months is directly contradicted by the RCP graph. If Biden's doing so well why does Enten need to lie and make things look better than they are?

[jake_arlington]

"Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Eh tbf I haven't seen a single, solitary Atlas poster ever make this point/claim

[jake_arlington]

I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what.

Hasn't he said he feels the race is a tossup currently?