I don't want to hear anyone else saying "Clinton was up by more last time!" again

[jake_arlington]

"Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Eh tbf I haven't seen a single, solitary Atlas poster ever make this point/claim

[jake_arlington]

I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what.

Hasn't he said he feels the race is a tossup currently?

[jake_arlington]

1) "Polling was wrong in 2016 as well"

Yes they were

2) "Biden is a worse candidate than Hillary"

I rarely see this take, but sure, some have said so. Tbc I don't believe it, but he certainly is no *better* of a candidate overall than she was (year of the election, and therefore populace's mood, notwithstanding).

3) "Democrats haven’t learned their lesson from 2016"

This is very true

4) "Democrats will struggle to win because of polarization and [insert other random buzzwords here]"

Again, I don't know of anybody claiming this

As for "all the post-Nov. 2018 takes on Florida," I have always been very insistent the state's been a tossup (for this year's presidential race) from the start, and it doesn't look as though that will be about to change anytime soon.

Midterms are not destiny.

[jake_arlington]

That is, it's not a tossup right now; Biden is a clear favorite right now.  That does not mean Biden is guaranteed to win.  However, Trump not only has to pull off the same late charge for a second time, he's got to make up ground before then to even get within range.

But, that is the thing...though: the less time that's left, the more that can change.

That's why if you gave me the option, I would rather be 5 points up a week out from Election Day, than 10 points up with 6 months still left to go, for instance.

[jake_arlington]

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance. Clinton was up by more, but the thing is that last minute we could see a major Trump revival in the polls. The thing is that the polls may have been wrong in 2016, but they showed Trump's rise late in the game.

Last minute Trump boost in AZ

Last minute Trump boost in MI

Last minute Trump boost in PA

Basically, the polls indicate momentum in the final moments. If you see a Trump collapse at the end he will lose, a Trump boost and he will win, and if it remains stagnant, it would be a tossup.

Clinton had the late momentum in 2016 though

[jake_arlington]

Today's date highlighted.



This year.

People keep saying "Clinton was ahead by so much more" or "You can't trust Biden's lead, don't you remember how much Clinton was up by?"

I do remember. And Biden isn't down to Trump right now like Hillary Clinton was.

Way to cherry-pick the exact like 4 days out of 200 for which Trump was beating Clinton during the 2016 campaign (very irrelevant and ages-ago for out purposes, today)

[jake_arlington]

If Sanders were the nominee the graph would look just like the Clinton one with wild swings.  Democrats were smart this year, they just wanted this idiot gone and it looks like Biden has a good chance at delivering that barring some huge change.  I really don't see how things change though.  Biden was up big before the pandemic and he's up big during the pandemic. 

Erm nah, there's bound to be *way* more key Biden/Trump swing voters than Sanders/Trump ones (in the latter contest, it's a turnout battle, whereas the former relies far more on persuasion)

Meaning that a hypothetical Bernie nomination would have resulted in far *less* volatility and/or movement, instead giving us stabler polling overall.

[jake_arlington]

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.

That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.

I only see users like SN saying Trump will win no matter what. Most users are simply being more cautious, which is perfectly reasonable this early on.

This really isn't all that prevalent here but a lot of college students and online Twitter leftists that supported Bernie keep repeating this narrative that Biden is going to lose in a landslide. It's an obviously small portion of the electorate, but it is the dominant take in certain spaces.

I try not to pay attention to children.

Yup, definitely not too many of these people I've seen whom to come across.

[jake_arlington]

I disagree with the notion that Biden is a weaker candidate tbh, he is a gaffe machine and progressives aren't super fond of him, but at the same time Biden doesn't have the negative ratings that Clinton did, he also is more likable than her.

I do agree that some red avatars here are a bit rosy about the race, to an extend some judgement is being clouded as to the status of the race, but it's hard not to say Biden is in a much better position than Hillary was at this point in time. Clinton and Trump traded leads throughout the year, while so far this year, Biden has consistently led and some points by good margins.

Well tbf, Clinton and Trump didn't trade leads much of the times if at all, according to the above graph (which is probably already more favorable toward him than most should be.)

And definitely, not up until this point on the campaign (pre-general, she led by more nationally) that's for sure.