I don't want to hear anyone else saying "Clinton was up by more last time!" again

[ElectionsGuy]

Personally, I don’t want anyone getting too confident about this race until at least September/October, if at all. It’s one thing to feel good about Biden’s chances, and another entirely to assume that he’s got this in the bag.

That's not what this is. It's arguing against the idiotic knee jerk "Trump will win again no matter what" I see all the time.

Biden's in really good shape at present.

That's pretty much exhibited by only one or two posters. You're arguing with almost no one here. Biden is in good shape - right now.

[ElectionsGuy]

2016 was so volatile. Hillary got a cycle of good news (usually Trump being awful), rose in the polls, her rise faded, rinse, repeat.

That was moreso applied to Trump. You can see the dramatic rise in the polls due to the RNC, DNC, Trump wrapping up the nomination (this period 4 years ago), Trump's tape (October drop). We're unlikely to see that kind of volatility this time because the two candidates already have their bases locked up. I think my hypothesis on the polls in 2016 is that Trump's drops were really voters that were always going to vote for him, but went back to undecided because they didn't like what they saw at times. What is not explained is that after the gap closing with Comey letter Clinton again opened up a wide lead (a lead that would've been wider if not for that outlier LA Times poll, btw) but then went on to lose the election by the same margin she had at the Comey letter time.

[ElectionsGuy]

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance. Clinton was up by more, but the thing is that last minute we could see a major Trump revival in the polls. The thing is that the polls may have been wrong in 2016, but they showed Trump's rise late in the game.

Last minute Trump boost in AZ

Last minute Trump boost in MI

Last minute Trump boost in PA

Basically, the polls indicate momentum in the final moments. If you see a Trump collapse at the end he will lose, a Trump boost and he will win, and if it remains stagnant, it would be a tossup.

Too many people ignored these polls. A lot of them were Republican internals that got the classic "JUNK!!!" response. I'm convinced even if we do see a tightening of the polls sometime in the future, people will not be receptive to it because of their own biases, and the sad part is they won't even realize it. The people that like the downplay the inaccuracy of the polls argue the polls are not that far off compared to historical standards. This is true, HOWEVER, they shouldn't consistently be off in one direction. A majority of state polls in 2016 and 2018 underestimated Republicans, they were not equally off like they "should" be. That is indicative of a systematic problem, not a typical polling error. Journalists and pollsters tend to ignore these issues too much, because the reality is, almost all of them are left-leaning and some of them don't know or understand a single person who's a Trump supporter or who has no college degree. Part of it I don't think is their fault, non-response error is becoming more common among demographics who are poorer and don't have a college degree. This I think is why South Carolina Dem primary polling is always so off.

[ElectionsGuy]

Its an axiom that undecideds break away from the incumbent at the end.

In 2016, Hillary was kind of like the incumbent, which Biden isnt.

Of course, this is moderated by enthusiasm, which Trump voters have and Biden voters dont. This might matter even more if COVID-19 is still around.

This didn't happen in 2004 or 2012, however. In 2012, the opposite happened. I don't even know why that's regarded as common knowledge.