I don't want to hear anyone else saying "Clinton was up by more last time!" again

[Reaganfan]

There is something screwy about polling.

In 2018, the last several polls added on this forum for Ohio Governor were the following:

Cordray +1
Cordray +3
Cordray +5
TIE
TIE
Cordray+4
Cordray+5

Actual results:
DEWINE +4

Those polls were 4-9 points too democrat.

Same thing for Florida Governor.

Gillum +4
Gillum +1
Gillum +2
Gillum +2
Gillum +5
Gillum +7
Gillum +4
DeSantis +3

Actual results:
DESANTIS +0.5

Iowa Governor's race, same thing.

Hubbell +5
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +4
Reynolds +4
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +3

Actual results:
REYNOLDS +3

I could go on and on. My point is, there does seem to be a bias against Republican vote. I don't know if they weight too heavily on education, or if they poll too many big cities (You call 1,000 people in Columbus, Cleveland and Akron you're gonna get a ton of African Americans and college kids who hate Trump, that isn't representative of the entire state).

[DaleCooper]

There is something screwy about polling.

In 2018, the last several polls added on this forum for Ohio Governor were the following:

Cordray +1
Cordray +3
Cordray +5
TIE
TIE
Cordray+4
Cordray+5

Actual results:
DEWINE +4

Those polls were 4-9 points too democrat.

Same thing for Florida Governor.

Gillum +4
Gillum +1
Gillum +2
Gillum +2
Gillum +5
Gillum +7
Gillum +4
DeSantis +3

Actual results:
DESANTIS +0.5

Iowa Governor's race, same thing.

Hubbell +5
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +4
Reynolds +4
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +3

Actual results:
REYNOLDS +3

I could go on and on. My point is, there does seem to be a bias against Republican vote. I don't know if they weight too heavily on education, or if they poll too many big cities (You call 1,000 people in Columbus, Cleveland and Akron you're gonna get a ton of African Americans and college kids who hate Trump, that isn't representative of the entire state).

There were 35 Senate elections, 36 gubernatorial elections, and 435 House elections in 2018. Polling errors in three of those elections (none of which were in states that are a necessity for the Democratic candidate to win the EC) do not mean that 2020 is going to be a repeat of 2016.

[John King wannabe]

this thread aged well.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

this thread aged well.

It's been 5 days

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance.

1 down, 1 more summer shocker to go

It's still spring

Sure, but in Arizona spring ends in April and its already 100 degrees lol

[The Mikado]

Honestly the truth is the election is a tossup, until like the last 2 weeks when the undecideds make up their minds. I expect at least 2 Summer shockers, 2 October surprises, and either Trump or Biden will give one very bad debate preformance.

1 down, 1 more summer shocker to go

It's still spring

Sure, but in Arizona spring ends in April and its already 100 degrees lol

As a Texan, I'm glad we have something we can agree on. This is definitely summer.

[The Mikado]

It's been a few weeks since I started this thread. Let's see where the charts are now:

2012:



2016:



2020:



Really says it all, doesn't it?

[The Mikado]

Been a few more weeks: Where are we now?

2012 (Almost has the 3.8 final margin down, 4 months out)



2016:



2020:

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The leader's share of the vote is the important number, especially if it's a Democrat out in front.

Obama on July 1, 2012: 47.5%. Result: victory

Clinton on July 1, 2016: 44.6%. Result: narrow defeat.

Biden on July 1, 2020: 49.7%. That's a really commanding number. That doesn't leave any room for undecided Republicans and Independents to "come home."