If Trump loses, will he run again? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 03:58:25 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  If Trump loses, will he run again? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: If Trump loses, will he run again?  (Read 636 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


« on: May 25, 2020, 08:57:48 AM »

I've seen arguments that if Trump loses in the next election, he'll run again in 2024.

Nathaniel Rakich of 538 sums it up.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/

Basically, he'll have his following, and be younger than Biden, so he won't be seen as too old. He'll also be able to chalk up a loss to historically unusual circumstances, while it would be better for his legacy to have a comeback narrative than a one-termer.

Jeet Heer of the Nation thinks it can help him complicate any efforts at prosecution.
Quote
Running for presidency after loss will be way for Trump to fend off the law. He will label any legal move as politically motivated (as he does now) and say he's victim of witch hunt.

Some of the Election What-If threads had Trump losing in 2020, and seeking the nomination again in 2024.

So,what do you guys think? Is there a strong possibility that Trump would try again? What would the response be?

He'll be half a year older than Biden, but it's plausible if he thinks his chance of winning isn't too far from odds-on (the risk of reputational damage could hold him back otherwise and he'd still get to campaign against Biden/Biden's VP while rooting for a doomed Pence). I'd guess it's odds on as long as he keeps his loss to within 100 EVs of Biden, but otherwise I expect former allies to do their utmost to tear him apart. I'd also guess it's odds on if the VP-elect this time is Warren and Biden resigns in 2024.

If he keeps a high profile until the midterms (as is likely regardless of whether he runs), Trump will be blamed for any disappointments/credited with any successes there.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2020, 04:59:59 PM »

He might run, but this term has been such a flop that I'd be shocked if he won the primary.
This might be a good thing, as a way for the Republican party to demonstrate a new direction post-Trump.

Agreed, but will it be worth the previous set of midterms probably being refocused onto the sideshow of speculations about his candidacy?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 13 queries.