If Trump loses, will he run again?
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  If Trump loses, will he run again?
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Author Topic: If Trump loses, will he run again?  (Read 627 times)
Mister Mets
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« on: May 25, 2020, 08:37:04 AM »

I've seen arguments that if Trump loses in the next election, he'll run again in 2024.

Nathaniel Rakich of 538 sums it up.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/

Basically, he'll have his following, and be younger than Biden, so he won't be seen as too old. He'll also be able to chalk up a loss to historically unusual circumstances, while it would be better for his legacy to have a comeback narrative than a one-termer.

Jeet Heer of the Nation thinks it can help him complicate any efforts at prosecution.
Quote
Running for presidency after loss will be way for Trump to fend off the law. He will label any legal move as politically motivated (as he does now) and say he's victim of witch hunt.

Some of the Election What-If threads had Trump losing in 2020, and seeking the nomination again in 2024.

So,what do you guys think? Is there a strong possibility that Trump would try again? What would the response be?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2020, 08:57:48 AM »

I've seen arguments that if Trump loses in the next election, he'll run again in 2024.

Nathaniel Rakich of 538 sums it up.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/

Basically, he'll have his following, and be younger than Biden, so he won't be seen as too old. He'll also be able to chalk up a loss to historically unusual circumstances, while it would be better for his legacy to have a comeback narrative than a one-termer.

Jeet Heer of the Nation thinks it can help him complicate any efforts at prosecution.
Quote
Running for presidency after loss will be way for Trump to fend off the law. He will label any legal move as politically motivated (as he does now) and say he's victim of witch hunt.

Some of the Election What-If threads had Trump losing in 2020, and seeking the nomination again in 2024.

So,what do you guys think? Is there a strong possibility that Trump would try again? What would the response be?

He'll be half a year older than Biden, but it's plausible if he thinks his chance of winning isn't too far from odds-on (the risk of reputational damage could hold him back otherwise and he'd still get to campaign against Biden/Biden's VP while rooting for a doomed Pence). I'd guess it's odds on as long as he keeps his loss to within 100 EVs of Biden, but otherwise I expect former allies to do their utmost to tear him apart. I'd also guess it's odds on if the VP-elect this time is Warren and Biden resigns in 2024.

If he keeps a high profile until the midterms (as is likely regardless of whether he runs), Trump will be blamed for any disappointments/credited with any successes there.
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Pulaski
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2020, 10:11:48 AM »

Honestly there is a non-zero chance Trump has either passed away or is in seriously poor health come 2024.

That said, he's a good chance of running if he's still around.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2020, 10:37:04 AM »

He might run, but this term has been such a flop that I'd be shocked if he won the primary.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2020, 04:53:29 PM »

He might run, but this term has been such a flop that I'd be shocked if he won the primary.
This might be a good thing, as a way for the Republican party to demonstrate a new direction post-Trump.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2020, 04:59:59 PM »

He might run, but this term has been such a flop that I'd be shocked if he won the primary.
This might be a good thing, as a way for the Republican party to demonstrate a new direction post-Trump.

Agreed, but will it be worth the previous set of midterms probably being refocused onto the sideshow of speculations about his candidacy?
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MABA 2020
MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2020, 05:14:33 PM »

He might run, but this term has been such a flop that I'd be shocked if he won the primary.

I wouldn't be, Trump is gonna run again and I can't see the GOP stopping him from winning the primary
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Brother Jonathan
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2020, 07:04:03 PM »

It seems like the sort of thing he would constantly hint at, but then maybe not go for. I could see him doing it, and making no secret about it from the second he is defeated, but I do think he might just not have enough interest in it at that point.
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Former Crackhead Mike Lindell
Randall
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2020, 02:00:07 PM »

It's the prosecution angle that clinches it for me. If it gives him *any* cover, then he'll be a 'candidate'. Whether he ever eventually files any paperwork, or if it's just a perma-tease. There's no way Trump will be completely out of the picture for 2024.

Him becoming a media recluse and us never hearing from him again is a nice fantasy too, but I don't see it. He has a voice, and he'll use it. And he'll hint at '24. Possibly even beginning with his concession speech.

He always says he never rules anything out!

Or he just wins again this year. Who knows.

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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2020, 02:15:03 PM »

Trump is more likely to become totally senile during his second term, giving Reagan at the end of his presidency a run of his money.
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2020, 09:22:44 PM »

He'll run again and lose the primary. Or he'll constantly talk about running again and never do it, and then there will be a write-in campaign, and he'll be the spoiler handing 2024 to the Democrats (lol).
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2020, 10:49:25 PM »

If Trump loses in 2020 and the GOP nominate Romney in 2024 in an attempt to pivot back to the center, Trump might run as a third party candidate to spite him and siphon off about 15 to 20% of the GOP vote.

Democrats would win a huge electoral landslide as a result, with over 400 Electoral Votes despite getting just 51% of the popular vote.

Mississippi flips narrowly as a result of the split conservative vote, to the surprise of everybody. A number of the traditional deep red GOP strongholds Democrats win (MO, SC, MT, KS, AK) would be with pluralities in the low forties.

Trump wins zero Electoral Votes, but succeeds in his spiteful goal of torpedoing a political rival who voted to impeach him. He manages the highest share of the popular vote for a third party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.

The EV numbers will be different after the census but I don't know what they'll be. That's why I'll put a little tilde next to the EV number.



Vice President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) 51.18% ~450 EV
Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) / Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 30.34% ~88 EV
Former President Donald Trump (MAGA-FL) / Talk Show Host Sean Hannity (MAGA-NY) 16.66%
Others 1.83%
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