If Trump loses in 2020 and the GOP nominate Romney in 2024 in an attempt to pivot back to the center, Trump might run as a third party candidate to spite him and siphon off about 15 to 20% of the GOP vote.
Democrats would win a huge electoral landslide as a result, with over 400 Electoral Votes despite getting just 51% of the popular vote.
Mississippi flips narrowly as a result of the split conservative vote, to the surprise of everybody. A number of the traditional deep red GOP strongholds Democrats win (MO, SC, MT, KS, AK) would be with pluralities in the low forties.
Trump wins zero Electoral Votes, but succeeds in his spiteful goal of torpedoing a political rival who voted to impeach him. He manages the highest share of the popular vote for a third party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.
The EV numbers will be different after the census but I don't know what they'll be. That's why I'll put a little tilde next to the EV number.
Vice President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) 51.18% ~450 EVSenator Mitt Romney (R-UT) / Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 30.34% ~88 EVFormer President Donald Trump (MAGA-FL) / Talk Show Host Sean Hannity (MAGA-NY) 16.66%Others 1.83%
