The case for a Trump re-election

[ProgressiveModerate]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If (with Trump's support) the Republicans got serious about cancelling/delaying elections ostensibly due to corona (very unlikely), the trifectas in AZ and FL (and the veto-proof majority in NC) could ensure these states appointed electors in another manner. If I'm not mistaken, it would even be doable after election day (FL's state house isn't flipping, AZ state legislators remain in place until January, and NC state legislators remain in place until the first subsequent regular session, but can still work in special sessions). There are no potential tipping point states where Democrats could do this.

I don't consider this especially plausible, but "The mail-in ballots were rigged; we must trust those who were elected without them" is one path to a Trump re-election.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If (with Trump's support) the Republicans got serious about cancelling/delaying elections ostensibly due to corona (very unlikely), the trifectas in AZ and FL (and the veto-proof majority in NC) could ensure these states appointed electors in another manner. If I'm not mistaken, it would even be doable after election day (FL's state house isn't flipping, AZ state legislators remain in place until January, and NC state legislators remain in place until the first subsequent regular session, but can still work in special sessions). There are no potential tipping point states where Democrats could do this.

I don't consider this especially plausible, but "The mail-in ballots were rigged; we must trust those who were elected without them" is one path to a Trump re-election.

I believe a popular vote for electors in guaranteed in the Florida constitution.

[Ferguson97]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

I'll offer a rebuttal for each point.

1. He hasn't lost his base, but he hasn't expanded it. His approval rating has declined since coming into office, so if he's losing tepid-voters (not supporters), then it'll be incredibly difficult to make that up.

2. Enthusiasm edge is a solid point. The candidate with more enthusiasm usually wins. But I'd reject the point that Biden is boring or nobody likes him. He decisively won the primary, and most of his supporters just aren't online 24/7.

3. Incumbency advantage only works when things are going well. Otherwise, it's a detriment.

4. Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Florida are the 6th, 7th, and 8th most impacted states. Trump needs most of them to win.

5. Trump has the news cycle advantage in a normal election, but people aren't going to be reporting anything but covid for a while.

6. The economy will not recover in time for Trump to take credit for it at the ballot box.

7. Citation on this?

8. Theoretically correct but the consensus seems to be that he's going to lose at least Michigan, and he has a much lower floor than Biden does. So I don't know if I agree with this.

9. This is somewhat incorrect. Most polls except Wisconsin were largely in the margin of error. Nationally, Biden's ~6 point lead is much more consistent than Hillary's lead was. And consistency is a very good indicator that the polls are accurate and not changing all that much.

10. It has remained stagnant for the better part of a year. He has not earned any new supporters.

11. Personal scandals, but he's not wriggling his way out of 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead Americans.

12. Incorrect. People blame the guy in charge. There wasn't much Bush could do about the 2008-2009 recession but people blamed him.

13. This is the strongest point here, and should be a great concern to everyone who cares about democracy.

14. Emotional/hunch argument.

15. They are overstated online. Vast majority are backing Biden and the ones who don't are mostly in blue states.

16. No one except right-wing nutjobs believes the Hunter Biden thing. Trump literally got impeached over this.

17.  This isn't really based on any evidence.

[Tekken_Guy]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

I'll offer a rebuttal for each point.

1. He hasn't lost his base, but he hasn't expanded it. His approval rating has declined since coming into office, so if he's losing tepid-voters (not supporters), then it'll be incredibly difficult to make that up.

2. Enthusiasm edge is a solid point. The candidate with more enthusiasm usually wins. But I'd reject the point that Biden is boring or nobody likes him. He decisively won the primary, and most of his supporters just aren't online 24/7.

3. Incumbency advantage only works when things are going well. Otherwise, it's a detriment.

4. Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Florida are the 6th, 7th, and 8th most impacted states. Trump needs most of them to win.

5. Trump has the news cycle advantage in a normal election, but people aren't going to be reporting anything but covid for a while.

6. The economy will not recover in time for Trump to take credit for it at the ballot box.

7. Citation on this?

8. Theoretically correct but the consensus seems to be that he's going to lose at least Michigan, and he has a much lower floor than Biden does. So I don't know if I agree with this.

9. This is somewhat incorrect. Most polls except Wisconsin were largely in the margin of error. Nationally, Biden's ~6 point lead is much more consistent than Hillary's lead was. And consistency is a very good indicator that the polls are accurate and not changing all that much.

10. It has remained stagnant for the better part of a year. He has not earned any new supporters.

11. Personal scandals, but he's not wriggling his way out of 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead Americans.

12. Incorrect. People blame the guy in charge. There wasn't much Bush could do about the 2008-2009 recession but people blamed him.

13. This is the strongest point here, and should be a great concern to everyone who cares about democracy.

14. Emotional/hunch argument.

15. They are overstated online. Vast majority are backing Biden and the ones who don't are mostly in blue states.

16. No one except right-wing nutjobs believes the Hunter Biden thing. Trump literally got impeached over this.

17.  This isn't really based on any evidence.

Honestly, even the VBM argument is rather weak. Wisconsin shows that Democrats will show up even if they have no VBM options.

[Ferguson97]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

I'll offer a rebuttal for each point.

1. He hasn't lost his base, but he hasn't expanded it. His approval rating has declined since coming into office, so if he's losing tepid-voters (not supporters), then it'll be incredibly difficult to make that up.

2. Enthusiasm edge is a solid point. The candidate with more enthusiasm usually wins. But I'd reject the point that Biden is boring or nobody likes him. He decisively won the primary, and most of his supporters just aren't online 24/7.

3. Incumbency advantage only works when things are going well. Otherwise, it's a detriment.

4. Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Florida are the 6th, 7th, and 8th most impacted states. Trump needs most of them to win.

5. Trump has the news cycle advantage in a normal election, but people aren't going to be reporting anything but covid for a while.

6. The economy will not recover in time for Trump to take credit for it at the ballot box.

7. Citation on this?

8. Theoretically correct but the consensus seems to be that he's going to lose at least Michigan, and he has a much lower floor than Biden does. So I don't know if I agree with this.

9. This is somewhat incorrect. Most polls except Wisconsin were largely in the margin of error. Nationally, Biden's ~6 point lead is much more consistent than Hillary's lead was. And consistency is a very good indicator that the polls are accurate and not changing all that much.

10. It has remained stagnant for the better part of a year. He has not earned any new supporters.

11. Personal scandals, but he's not wriggling his way out of 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead Americans.

12. Incorrect. People blame the guy in charge. There wasn't much Bush could do about the 2008-2009 recession but people blamed him.

13. This is the strongest point here, and should be a great concern to everyone who cares about democracy.

14. Emotional/hunch argument.

15. They are overstated online. Vast majority are backing Biden and the ones who don't are mostly in blue states.

16. No one except right-wing nutjobs believes the Hunter Biden thing. Trump literally got impeached over this.

17.  This isn't really based on any evidence.

Honestly, even the VBM argument is rather weak. Wisconsin shows that Democrats will show up even if they have no VBM options.

CA-25 though. I dunno, the VBM is gonna be a wildcard. Could result in some weird maps.

[Tekken_Guy]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

I'll offer a rebuttal for each point.

1. He hasn't lost his base, but he hasn't expanded it. His approval rating has declined since coming into office, so if he's losing tepid-voters (not supporters), then it'll be incredibly difficult to make that up.

2. Enthusiasm edge is a solid point. The candidate with more enthusiasm usually wins. But I'd reject the point that Biden is boring or nobody likes him. He decisively won the primary, and most of his supporters just aren't online 24/7.

3. Incumbency advantage only works when things are going well. Otherwise, it's a detriment.

4. Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Florida are the 6th, 7th, and 8th most impacted states. Trump needs most of them to win.

5. Trump has the news cycle advantage in a normal election, but people aren't going to be reporting anything but covid for a while.

6. The economy will not recover in time for Trump to take credit for it at the ballot box.

7. Citation on this?

8. Theoretically correct but the consensus seems to be that he's going to lose at least Michigan, and he has a much lower floor than Biden does. So I don't know if I agree with this.

9. This is somewhat incorrect. Most polls except Wisconsin were largely in the margin of error. Nationally, Biden's ~6 point lead is much more consistent than Hillary's lead was. And consistency is a very good indicator that the polls are accurate and not changing all that much.

10. It has remained stagnant for the better part of a year. He has not earned any new supporters.

11. Personal scandals, but he's not wriggling his way out of 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead Americans.

12. Incorrect. People blame the guy in charge. There wasn't much Bush could do about the 2008-2009 recession but people blamed him.

13. This is the strongest point here, and should be a great concern to everyone who cares about democracy.

14. Emotional/hunch argument.

15. They are overstated online. Vast majority are backing Biden and the ones who don't are mostly in blue states.

16. No one except right-wing nutjobs believes the Hunter Biden thing. Trump literally got impeached over this.

17.  This isn't really based on any evidence.

Honestly, even the VBM argument is rather weak. Wisconsin shows that Democrats will show up even if they have no VBM options.

CA-25 though. I dunno, the VBM is gonna be a wildcard. Could result in some weird maps.

CA-25 was an all-mail election.

[Ferguson97]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

I'll offer a rebuttal for each point.

1. He hasn't lost his base, but he hasn't expanded it. His approval rating has declined since coming into office, so if he's losing tepid-voters (not supporters), then it'll be incredibly difficult to make that up.

2. Enthusiasm edge is a solid point. The candidate with more enthusiasm usually wins. But I'd reject the point that Biden is boring or nobody likes him. He decisively won the primary, and most of his supporters just aren't online 24/7.

3. Incumbency advantage only works when things are going well. Otherwise, it's a detriment.

4. Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Florida are the 6th, 7th, and 8th most impacted states. Trump needs most of them to win.

5. Trump has the news cycle advantage in a normal election, but people aren't going to be reporting anything but covid for a while.

6. The economy will not recover in time for Trump to take credit for it at the ballot box.

7. Citation on this?

8. Theoretically correct but the consensus seems to be that he's going to lose at least Michigan, and he has a much lower floor than Biden does. So I don't know if I agree with this.

9. This is somewhat incorrect. Most polls except Wisconsin were largely in the margin of error. Nationally, Biden's ~6 point lead is much more consistent than Hillary's lead was. And consistency is a very good indicator that the polls are accurate and not changing all that much.

10. It has remained stagnant for the better part of a year. He has not earned any new supporters.

11. Personal scandals, but he's not wriggling his way out of 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead Americans.

12. Incorrect. People blame the guy in charge. There wasn't much Bush could do about the 2008-2009 recession but people blamed him.

13. This is the strongest point here, and should be a great concern to everyone who cares about democracy.

14. Emotional/hunch argument.

15. They are overstated online. Vast majority are backing Biden and the ones who don't are mostly in blue states.

16. No one except right-wing nutjobs believes the Hunter Biden thing. Trump literally got impeached over this.

17.  This isn't really based on any evidence.

Honestly, even the VBM argument is rather weak. Wisconsin shows that Democrats will show up even if they have no VBM options.

CA-25 though. I dunno, the VBM is gonna be a wildcard. Could result in some weird maps.

CA-25 was an all-mail election.

So couldn't it theoretically help Trump? Or is a special election not really comparable?

[Orwell]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

I'll offer a rebuttal for each point.

1. He hasn't lost his base, but he hasn't expanded it. His approval rating has declined since coming into office, so if he's losing tepid-voters (not supporters), then it'll be incredibly difficult to make that up.

2. Enthusiasm edge is a solid point. The candidate with more enthusiasm usually wins. But I'd reject the point that Biden is boring or nobody likes him. He decisively won the primary, and most of his supporters just aren't online 24/7.

3. Incumbency advantage only works when things are going well. Otherwise, it's a detriment.

4. Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Florida are the 6th, 7th, and 8th most impacted states. Trump needs most of them to win.

5. Trump has the news cycle advantage in a normal election, but people aren't going to be reporting anything but covid for a while.

6. The economy will not recover in time for Trump to take credit for it at the ballot box.

7. Citation on this?

8. Theoretically correct but the consensus seems to be that he's going to lose at least Michigan, and he has a much lower floor than Biden does. So I don't know if I agree with this.

9. This is somewhat incorrect. Most polls except Wisconsin were largely in the margin of error. Nationally, Biden's ~6 point lead is much more consistent than Hillary's lead was. And consistency is a very good indicator that the polls are accurate and not changing all that much.

10. It has remained stagnant for the better part of a year. He has not earned any new supporters.

11. Personal scandals, but he's not wriggling his way out of 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead Americans.

12. Incorrect. People blame the guy in charge. There wasn't much Bush could do about the 2008-2009 recession but people blamed him.

13. This is the strongest point here, and should be a great concern to everyone who cares about democracy.

14. Emotional/hunch argument.

15. They are overstated online. Vast majority are backing Biden and the ones who don't are mostly in blue states.

16. No one except right-wing nutjobs believes the Hunter Biden thing. Trump literally got impeached over this.

17.  This isn't really based on any evidence.

Honestly, even the VBM argument is rather weak. Wisconsin shows that Democrats will show up even if they have no VBM options.

CA-25 though. I dunno, the VBM is gonna be a wildcard. Could result in some weird maps.

CA-25 was an all-mail election.

So couldn't it theoretically help Trump? Or is a special election not really comparable?

It was a special election in a historically conservative area where the resigned incumbent had flipped the seat less than a year earlier, it's not like it was Connor Lamb or Bob Turner winning an D+20 or R+20 seat CA-25 is an Even PVI seat.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Well who enforced the lockdowns that made people lose their jobs because they couldn't work? It wasn't Trump, it was the governors of the states.

[Ferguson97]

Well who enforced the lockdowns that made people lose their jobs because they couldn't work? It wasn't Trump, it was the governors of the states.

Yes those Evil Governors who stopped everyone from dying.

It was Trump's incompetence and refusal to act that made things as bad as they are.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Well who enforced the lockdowns that made people lose their jobs because they couldn't work? It wasn't Trump, it was the governors of the states.

Yes those Evil Governors who stopped everyone from dying.

It was Trump's incompetence and refusal to act that made things as bad as they are.

The latter are opinions and assertions.  Not facts.

The stats from FL and GA refute your first point.

For you to be right, events would have to happen that haven't happened yet.  But make no mistake; it's the Governors that will be blamed for the excesses of lockdowns.

[EJ24]

I think his strongest argument could actually be his Covid response (believe it or not). Especially if we keep seeing death rates decline.

He's already running ads about shutting down travel from China despite his advisors telling him not to.

And the lasting damage from this will be economic, which Trump can easily pin on Dem governors, and point out that he wanted to re-open much earlier.

He can essentially say "see? things weren't as bad as the Democrats/deep state said, we got through this in 3-6 months, not 12-18, they just wanted to hurt me politically, etc."

Democrats can NOT go to sleep on this and assume it can only hurt Trump. Remember, he somehow spun rape allegations against his Supreme Court pick into a political issue that boosted his approval rating, and did the same thing with impeachment to an extent.

[Orwell]

Well who enforced the lockdowns that made people lose their jobs because they couldn't work? It wasn't Trump, it was the governors of the states.

Yes those Evil Governors who stopped everyone from dying.

It was Trump's incompetence and refusal to act that made things as bad as they are.

The latter are opinions and assertions.  Not facts.

The stats from FL and GA refute your first point.

For you to be right, events would have to happen that haven't happened yet.  But make no mistake; it's the Governors that will be blamed for the excesses of lockdowns.

Fuzzy I would be careful, someone of your age is almost at the point for an increased risk. If you aren't already please social distance and wear a mask, it may be further spread then we think since the state is blocking ME's from putting out the information.

[EJ24]

And to expand on my last post a bit, it's not just "luck" that Trump has, he has a certain amount of political brilliance, and understands what it means to set the narrative.

No matter what kind of scandal he finds himself in, he makes sure the mainstream media's narrative is not the only one on the airwaves. He says things that are crass and controversial, but it forces the media to respond to him and play on his terms.

A perfect example of this is the Hunter Biden/Burisma stuff. Total nonsense conspiracy theory that belongs on infowars or some other garbage, but the fact that the President of the United States runs with it forces the media to talk about it. It forces Biden to defend himself and his son.

This is something Democrats have a hard time doing, which is incredibly frustrating, and it's why they constantly lose the messaging battle. Always on defense. They can NOT end up on defense regarding the shutdowns. Heed the warning.

[Ferguson97]

Everyone here is missing two things:

1. The protesters and anti-lockdown are an extreme minority, most Americans support the lockdowns.

2. Most of the anti-lockdown people are already voting for Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone here is missing two things:

1. The protesters and anti-lockdown are an extreme minority, most Americans support the lockdowns.

2. Most of the anti-lockdown people are already voting for Trump.

Most people are fed up with the lockdowns, the people are content with the lockdowns due to the testing procedures isnt put in place by Trump.

Most people want their bars, tattoos and ballgames back.

That's why you had men dressing up in camouflage, with guns arguing to unlock the country. They weren't trying to hurt anyone, the guns probably werent loaded or had a safety lock. They want their bars and ballgames and NASCAR back

[Ferguson97]

Everyone here is missing two things:

1. The protesters and anti-lockdown are an extreme minority, most Americans support the lockdowns.

2. Most of the anti-lockdown people are already voting for Trump.

Most people are fed up with the lockdowns, the people are content with the lockdowns due to the testing procedures isnt put in place by Trump.

Most people want their bars, tattoos and ballgames back.

That's why you had men dressing up in camouflage, with guns arguing to unlock the country. They weren't trying to hurt anyone, the guns probably werent loaded or had a safety lock. They want their bars and ballgames and NASCAR back

This is categorically incorrect.

[Mr. Smith]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

I'll offer a rebuttal for each point.

1. He hasn't lost his base, but he hasn't expanded it. His approval rating has declined since coming into office, so if he's losing tepid-voters (not supporters), then it'll be incredibly difficult to make that up.

2. Enthusiasm edge is a solid point. The candidate with more enthusiasm usually wins. But I'd reject the point that Biden is boring or nobody likes him. He decisively won the primary, and most of his supporters just aren't online 24/7.

3. Incumbency advantage only works when things are going well. Otherwise, it's a detriment.

4. Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Florida are the 6th, 7th, and 8th most impacted states. Trump needs most of them to win.

5. Trump has the news cycle advantage in a normal election, but people aren't going to be reporting anything but covid for a while.

6. The economy will not recover in time for Trump to take credit for it at the ballot box.

7. Citation on this?

8. Theoretically correct but the consensus seems to be that he's going to lose at least Michigan, and he has a much lower floor than Biden does. So I don't know if I agree with this.

9. This is somewhat incorrect. Most polls except Wisconsin were largely in the margin of error. Nationally, Biden's ~6 point lead is much more consistent than Hillary's lead was. And consistency is a very good indicator that the polls are accurate and not changing all that much.

10. It has remained stagnant for the better part of a year. He has not earned any new supporters.

11. Personal scandals, but he's not wriggling his way out of 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead Americans.

12. Incorrect. People blame the guy in charge. There wasn't much Bush could do about the 2008-2009 recession but people blamed him.

13. This is the strongest point here, and should be a great concern to everyone who cares about democracy.

14. Emotional/hunch argument.

15. They are overstated online. Vast majority are backing Biden and the ones who don't are mostly in blue states.

16. No one except right-wing nutjobs believes the Hunter Biden thing. Trump literally got impeached over this.

17.  This isn't really based on any evidence.

Rebuttal to the rebuttals

1. Not hard if a lot of voter-intimidation and suppression ramps up.

2. Which is exactly the sort of argument Clintonistas kept using in 2016, and not being online is going to be an issue regarding cyber-security. That enthusiasm that Bernie had could've been used to thwart Russia who will try again.

3. Things weren't that great in 2004 or 2012, who won those again? Truthfully it takes a serious amount of trouble and the wrong personality to actually be badly affected as an incumbent.

4. True, but two of these are re-opening quickly, which is going to do much to put things in the past regardless of the reality...in regards to COVID to clarify.

5. It's only September and October's news cycles that matter, and COVID might well be settled in enough as reality by that point, and as you point out Trump is the master of the news cycle.

6. Which is exactly what the GOP said about Obama in 2012, Faux will have no troubles making sure Trump can defy the reality on that, combined with 5.

7. Can't dispute this one...skip.

8. The consensus was also that'd he'd lose Wisconsin in 2016. Also, Michigan is heavily dependent on the black vote. All it takes is Biden doing about the same as Hillary/Kerry while not stanching the WWC vote in more rural areas to lose Michigan.

9. Hillary's lead was very consistent..until 9/11. Gotta wait until September/October to really get an idea of where things are.

10. If Kemp/Raffesberger and others are working hard enough, those supporters might get even more disproportionate power. Look at the RNC's attempts to combat mail-in voting. Only 1/4 of the nation voted for Trump. Only slightly over half the nation votes as is.

11. He's wriggled out before, and plenty of those dealings with The Trump Foundation are hardly "personal".

12. See reason 3

13. It's kinda the big overarching point that renders moot a lot of your rebuttals. The work being put in to give Trump's base the main say on everything is quite staggering, or perhaps the perceived GOP base is a better way to put it. It just might not matter that much how many people he's alienated if those people are locked out voting.

14. Not that emotional or "hunch", he's quite literally escaped bankruptcy after bankruptcy after bankruptcy...and when the public were getting tired of his a^%,  suddenly he got "The Apprentice". And when that act got old, he became a Twitter legend, and when that got old, he ran for President...and he got saved by Comey on that. What's the hunch here when the past results are there? Him losing is the hunch in that light, and very much an outlier when looking at the rest of his career.

15. Some of these "blue states" as you put it, might not be so blue and the Bernie faction could make the difference again. Not to mention it was the online illiteracy that made the Clinton campaign so vulnerable in the first place.

16. It was only right-wing nutjobs that believed Benghazi, in the end, it was probably only them, but arguing about it ad-nauseum until the median voter at least thinks something is off is ALL that has to happen.

17. Can't really dispute this one, the "secret" vote is always difficult to figure out. The real question is whether the "secret" vote even matters if enough non-GOP votes are suppressed.

[Ferguson97]

Last week, I started a thread about why I believed that Biden was a favorite to win the 2020 election. To be well rounded and fair, I'm going to make one about the case for Trump's winning re-election:

1. He hasn't lost many supporters from 2016, most of his base sticks by him no matter what
2. He has the enthusiam edge. Biden is just a boring caidate who no one reallt likes
3. Trump is the incumbent
4. COVID has mostly been impacting blue cities in blue states. Any gains Biden would make from COVID would be in safe states he's already going to win
5. Trump knows how to twist the news cycle I his favor, and will likely do this leading up to the election
6. Our economy will recover. Unlike previous recessions, this one is more like putting our economy on pause instead of completely wreaking it
7. Most people who lost their jobs have been Democrats who work in service jobs
8. Trump's EC advantage will grow in 2020
9. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and Hillary was polling better than Biden in many places in the country at this point
10. Trump's approval has been on a steady incline since he entered the oval office
11. Trump is immune to scandals
12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control
13. He'll block vote by mail efforts to ensure Ds have a harder time voting
14. He'll get lucky again, like he always does
15. Bernie Bros will fracture the D vote
16. Hunter Biden will hurt Biden
17. They'll be a secret Trump vote that we weren't expecting

These are the arguments I see Trump supporters and pessismestic Ds use to explaina Trump victory. I disagree with most of these reasons, or they are taken out of a larger picture. What do ya'll on this forum think?

I'll offer a rebuttal for each point.

1. He hasn't lost his base, but he hasn't expanded it. His approval rating has declined since coming into office, so if he's losing tepid-voters (not supporters), then it'll be incredibly difficult to make that up.

2. Enthusiasm edge is a solid point. The candidate with more enthusiasm usually wins. But I'd reject the point that Biden is boring or nobody likes him. He decisively won the primary, and most of his supporters just aren't online 24/7.

3. Incumbency advantage only works when things are going well. Otherwise, it's a detriment.

4. Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, and Florida are the 6th, 7th, and 8th most impacted states. Trump needs most of them to win.

5. Trump has the news cycle advantage in a normal election, but people aren't going to be reporting anything but covid for a while.

6. The economy will not recover in time for Trump to take credit for it at the ballot box.

7. Citation on this?

8. Theoretically correct but the consensus seems to be that he's going to lose at least Michigan, and he has a much lower floor than Biden does. So I don't know if I agree with this.

9. This is somewhat incorrect. Most polls except Wisconsin were largely in the margin of error. Nationally, Biden's ~6 point lead is much more consistent than Hillary's lead was. And consistency is a very good indicator that the polls are accurate and not changing all that much.

10. It has remained stagnant for the better part of a year. He has not earned any new supporters.

11. Personal scandals, but he's not wriggling his way out of 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead Americans.

12. Incorrect. People blame the guy in charge. There wasn't much Bush could do about the 2008-2009 recession but people blamed him.

13. This is the strongest point here, and should be a great concern to everyone who cares about democracy.

14. Emotional/hunch argument.

15. They are overstated online. Vast majority are backing Biden and the ones who don't are mostly in blue states.

16. No one except right-wing nutjobs believes the Hunter Biden thing. Trump literally got impeached over this.

17.  This isn't really based on any evidence.

Rebuttal to the rebuttals

1. Not hard if a lot of voter-intimidation and suppression ramps up.

2. Which is exactly the sort of argument Clintonistas kept using in 2016, and not being online is going to be an issue regarding cyber-security. That enthusiasm that Bernie had could've been used to thwart Russia who will try again.

3. Things weren't that great in 2004 or 2012, who won those again? Truthfully it takes a serious amount of trouble and the wrong personality to actually be badly affected as an incumbent.

4. True, but two of these are re-opening quickly, which is going to do much to put things in the past regardless of the reality...in regards to COVID to clarify.

5. It's only September and October's news cycles that matter, and COVID might well be settled in enough as reality by that point, and as you point out Trump is the master of the news cycle.

6. Which is exactly what the GOP said about Obama in 2012, Faux will have no troubles making sure Trump can defy the reality on that, combined with 5.

7. Can't dispute this one...skip.

8. The consensus was also that'd he'd lose Wisconsin in 2016. Also, Michigan is heavily dependent on the black vote. All it takes is Biden doing about the same as Hillary/Kerry while not stanching the WWC vote in more rural areas to lose Michigan.

9. Hillary's lead was very consistent..until 9/11. Gotta wait until September/October to really get an idea of where things are.

10. If Kemp/Raffesberger and others are working hard enough, those supporters might get even more disproportionate power. Look at the RNC's attempts to combat mail-in voting. Only 1/4 of the nation voted for Trump. Only slightly over half the nation votes as is.

11. He's wriggled out before, and plenty of those dealings with The Trump Foundation are hardly "personal".

12. See reason 3

13. It's kinda the big overarching point that renders moot a lot of your rebuttals. The work being put in to give Trump's base the main say on everything is quite staggering, or perhaps the perceived GOP base is a better way to put it. It just might not matter that much how many people he's alienated if those people are locked out voting.

14. Not that emotional or "hunch", he's quite literally escaped bankruptcy after bankruptcy after bankruptcy...and when the public were getting tired of his a^%,  suddenly he got "The Apprentice". And when that act got old, he became a Twitter legend, and when that got old, he ran for President...and he got saved by Comey on that. What's the hunch here when the past results are there? Him losing is the hunch in that light, and very much an outlier when looking at the rest of his career.

15. Some of these "blue states" as you put it, might not be so blue and the Bernie faction could make the difference again. Not to mention it was the online illiteracy that made the Clinton campaign so vulnerable in the first place.

16. It was only right-wing nutjobs that believed Benghazi, in the end, it was probably only them, but arguing about it ad-nauseum until the median voter at least thinks something is off is ALL that has to happen.

17. Can't really dispute this one, the "secret" vote is always difficult to figure out. The real question is whether the "secret" vote even matters if enough non-GOP votes are suppressed.

Rebuttals to your rebuttals of my rebuttals.

1. The people switching from Trump to Biden are white college-educated suburbans. Not exactly the kind of person whose vote you can easily suppress.

2. Bernie had more enthusiasm but his overall group is smarter. And I'm not sure how being overly online benefits anyone in a disinformation campaign. If anything, the average Biden supporter not hearing any conspiracies is a good thing.

3. I'd argue that 20% unemployment and 100k+ dead and counting certainly counts as a "serious amount of trouble". This is the worst economic crisis since The Great Depression and the greatest public health crisis since 1918.

4. And when they reopen and things get worse, it's only going to make Trump look incompetent.

5. Covid-19 won't be settled by September/October. Experts agree.

6. As I said above, this economy is leagues above 2012.

7. N/A

8.  The margin was extremely close (less than 30k votes) and Trump has only went down in popularity... Biden should have little trouble gaining the margin.

9. I'm not sure this is correct, Hillary's lead fluctuated much more than Biden's has. But yes, Sept/Oct is a long way away and that's a better indicator.

10. As I said, GOP tampering with VBM is a big concern. But I don't see how that relates to his approval rating.

11. Again, you're vastly understating how bad 20% unemployment and 100k dead Americans is.

12. See above.

13. See 10.

14. I don't really have anything to say to this other than he's not a literal god and luck is immeasurable.

15. Most of these people are in NYC, CA, and Seattle. No matter how badly Biden flubs, he's not losing them. 30 point lead is very different from a 10 point lead.

16. In a normal cycle maybe, but no one is talking about it because of covid. And voters' opinions on the matter are largely baked in.

17. N/A

[Virginiá]

12. Most people know that this recession isn't Trump's fault, and was it was the fault of a virus that was out of his control

It would be be historically anomalous for Trump to win reelection in a downturn this bad. The electorate isn't as rational as people would like to think. If you're the one perceived as in charge (which is how Americans view the president), the buck stops with you, regardless of the circumstances. Trump even said as much himself with regards to Obama.

I've seen some suggest that the country is too polarized for the economy to matter much anymore, even if it did before. I'd disagree, though. The overall pool of voters who would be swayed by such a downturn might be smaller, but clearly not prohibitively so given that Republicans lost the House popular vote by >8% in 2018.

At any rate, I'd say there is more historical evidence to suggest the GOP is in for a world of pain than not, unless the economy improves drastically. Anything else seems like wishful thinking.

[SN2903]

The enthusiasm and incumbency are easily the best arguments
Hillary easily had more enthusiasm than Biden and still lost. Biden has benefited from the fact the campaign has been on hold. Now it's really starting to pick up. There should def be a tightening next week in the polls after Bidens comment. I still don't think Trump winning by more than 2016 is out of the question yet.

[Ferguson97]

The enthusiasm and incumbency are easily the best arguments
Hillary easily had more enthusiasm than Biden. Biden has benefited from the fact the campaign has been on hold. Now it's really starting to pick up. There should def be a tightening next week after Bidens comment.

Two things: How does incumbency help Trump when the country is in the sh**tter? And you are massively overrating the impact Biden's comment will have. It won't have any.

[SN2903]

The enthusiasm and incumbency are easily the best arguments
Hillary easily had more enthusiasm than Biden. Biden has benefited from the fact the campaign has been on hold. Now it's really starting to pick up. There should def be a tightening next week after Bidens comment.

Two things: How does incumbency help Trump when the country is in the sh**tter? And you are massively overrating the impact Biden's comment will have. It won't have any.

Lets wait for the polls first

[SN2903]

Well who enforced the lockdowns that made people lose their jobs because they couldn't work? It wasn't Trump, it was the governors of the states.

Yes those Evil Governors who stopped everyone from dying.

It was Trump's incompetence and refusal to act that made things as bad as they are.

Speculation. You can counteract that with the fact Dems likely would have taken longer to ban Chinese travel and European travel. Biden opposed the travel ban. He flip flopped.