Let's have some perspective here and remember that Clinton barely won here, and the state tends to be more Republican during presidential years. Biden being up five points here really isn't that bad. I'm certain that the Democrats' floor with the Twin Cities and their suburbs will hold up. It's a bit like Nevada in that respect. Minnesota's Democratic voting streak isn't ending yet, though it may very well go back to voting to Michigan's right, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens this year.
Of course, if I were Collin Peterson, perhaps I'd be a tad worried.
I agree with your assessment of the presidential election, but Peterson has won relatively comfortably in so many unfriendly election cycles that I won't bring myself to be worried for him until he finally does lose. I will say, though, that I don't think he'd make it through a Biden midterm.
Peterson's seat won't exist in a Biden midterm.