MN Star Tribune/MPR/KARE poll: Biden +5
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  MN Star Tribune/MPR/KARE poll: Biden +5
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Author Topic: MN Star Tribune/MPR/KARE poll: Biden +5  (Read 4103 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: May 24, 2020, 12:10:05 PM »
« edited: May 24, 2020, 12:14:20 PM by Minnesota Mike »

https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-biden-holds-small-lead-over-trump-in-2020-presidential-race/570709192/

A new Minnesota Poll conducted by the Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11, found Biden ahead of Trump 49% to 44% in the general election matchup less than six months ahead of Election Day. Biden fell just short of a majority, but 7% of Minnesotans said they are still undecided.

Conducted by Mason Dixon Polling
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2020, 12:12:38 PM »

More info

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/24/poll-biden-has-slight-edge-on-trump-in-minnesota
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2020, 12:15:46 PM »

Mason-Dixon typically underpolls Democrats slightly in MN ...
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2020, 12:23:43 PM »

Mason-Dixon typically underpolls Democrats slightly in MN ...

FWIW in their last poll (last October) Mason Dixon had Biden +12 (50-38).  Biden's # is pretty much unchanged but Trump picked up some undecideds.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2020, 12:30:16 PM »

Ehh, seems about right. I think if Biden plays his cards right, he can match Obama's 2012 margin here.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2020, 12:30:41 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2020, 12:45:11 PM by LiberalDem19 »

Yeah, I wanna see a KSTP/SUSA poll of Minnesota. They got 2018 pretty on the nose here. The Strib can be a bit all over the place sometimes.

I'm also haveing a tough time believing Hennepin/Ramsey will split 62-29, given that Trump didn't even get that last time. Knowing the geographic regions that they use, I can believe the other numbers though.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2020, 12:38:30 PM »

Yeah, I wanna see a KSTP/SUSA poll of Minnesota. They got 2018 pretty on the nose here. The Strib can be a bit all over the place sometimes.

KSTP/SUSA had a poll out lat weekend but for some reason did not ask horse race questions. Mainly about CV-19.  Had Trump 34-59 on his handling of the coronavirus.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2020, 12:41:21 PM »

To be honest, I don't buy Trump having gained this much on Biden since last October. It is contrary to what all other polls show.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2020, 12:45:17 PM »

FWIW looks about right to me. My gut says Biden may be up a little more than that but that's probably just my bias. Self identified party ID. 38D/33R/29I,  is a little closer than most Minnesota polls.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2020, 12:46:38 PM »

To be honest, I don't buy Trump having gained this much on Biden since last October. It is contrary to what all other polls show.

Biden winning Minnesota by high single digits wouldn't be contrary to national polls I think. After all, the only democrat to win Minnesota by doubles digits in the last 20 years was Obama in 2008.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2020, 12:47:35 PM »

Something of note is that the last day of polling was May 20th, the same day that Gov. Walz announced that the rules on what was going to be allowed to reopen in June are going to be a lot more restrictive than what everyone was expecting. So if Minnesotans' opinions of Walz and Democrats have soured in the last week because of this, it wouldn't be reflected in this poll.
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Laki 🇧🇪❤️🇺🇦
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« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2020, 12:48:01 PM »

Finally a good and realistic poll, we've been seeing a lot of trash polls lately.

I believe that if Trump wins, he already has won MN.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2020, 12:49:13 PM »

To be honest, I don't buy Trump having gained this much on Biden since last October. It is contrary to what all other polls show.

Biden winning Minnesota by high single digits wouldn't be contrary to national polls I think. After all, the only democrat to win Minnesota by doubles digits in the last 20 years was Obama in 2008.
This result is actually identical to my prediction for how the state votes, but what I am saying is that it is likely that either the last poll was BS, or this one is BS.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2020, 12:49:24 PM »

To be honest, I don't buy Trump having gained this much on Biden since last October. It is contrary to what all other polls show.

I think last Octobers poll was probably an outlier. Last October they had Trump getting 80% of Republicans, this poll has him getting 95% of Republicans. Movement tword Trump is just the base coming home as expected.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2020, 01:10:54 PM »

Tossup.
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ηєω Éяσηтιєя
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2020, 01:52:11 PM »

Yeah, it's a tossup between Lean and Likely D.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2020, 02:34:03 PM »

Donít think of it as a state which hasnít voted R since 1972, think of it as a state which was closest to the national result (after Nevada) in 2016. If its R trend (slightly) continues in 2020 and MN votes 1-2% to the right of the nation or so, Biden +5 will be consistent with a Biden +6-7 lead nationally, which is a very believable outcome.

Of course, given the Democrats' popular vote advantage and some of the trends weíve seen in the Twin Cities, thereís no reason to expect Trump to win MN in a year like this, but I donít think this result is necessarily a pro-R outlier.
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14 Down, 36 To Go
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« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2020, 02:45:45 PM »

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.  In fact, if Trump is able to rebound and win reelection, I think it would be with Minnesota (albeit not the tipping point).
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2020, 02:47:04 PM »

Too damn close even if Democrats underestimated, but Uncle Joe should be fine in Minnesota. Amy Klobuchar will help him greatly.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2020, 02:54:04 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2020, 08:43:07 PM by ProudModerate2 »


Un-sarcastically, this.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: May 24, 2020, 03:01:44 PM »

Imagine that uncle Joe's worst poll is one which shows him perform 3 points better than Clinton.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2020, 04:10:20 PM »

Imagine that uncle Joe's worst poll is one which shows him perform 3 points better than Clinton.

Out of two polls total for MN.

Trump should target this state along with NH. If losses in the sun belt prove unstoppable, these are the only two states that could realistically get him back to 270.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #22 on: May 24, 2020, 04:16:30 PM »

Imagine that uncle Joe's worst poll is one which shows him perform 3 points better than Clinton.

Out of two polls total for MN.

Trump should target this state along with NH. If losses in the sun belt prove unstoppable, these are the only two states that could realistically get him back to 270.

Trump's going to either only gain states or only lose states. Not some combination of both.

He's better off campaigning his ass off in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2020, 04:19:20 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2020, 04:22:38 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Imagine that uncle Joe's worst poll is one which shows him perform 3 points better than Clinton.

Out of two polls total for MN.

Trump should target this state along with NH. If losses in the sun belt prove unstoppable, these are the only two states that could realistically get him back to 270.

Trump's going to either only gain states or only lose states. Not some combination of both.

He's better off campaigning his ass off in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

It's unlikely, but it's not always been that way in the recent past. Dubya won in 2004 while losing some states and gaining others, and among both types, there were potential tipping points.

Particularly nasty trends in AZ and amongst FL boomers might make MN a better opportunity. At this stage in the game, if the Trump campaign has sufficient funding for eight battlegrounds and NE-2, one of those should definitely be MN. He spent $0 there from September in the 2016 campaign and didn't visit the state at all. Just putting in a little more effort there could pay off big time.
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Spark
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« Reply #24 on: May 24, 2020, 04:25:33 PM »

Another bad poll for Biden. 7% undecided!
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