Let's talk about Texas in 2020

[EJ24]

Is there any real chance of Biden putting this in play?

If so, how does he do it?

[Roll Roons]

I’m gonna say no. Obviously the state isn’t quite as impossibly red as it used to be, but it requires a HUGE investment on Biden’s part in terms of time and money. Beto could afford it because he was only running a statewide campaign, but Biden will also have to focus on Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, etc. All of those are still more likely to go D than Texas, and it wouldn’t be worth it if Biden bets the farm on Texas and gains a couple points there but falls just short in the others.

[T'Chenka]

How would the following vote?

Hank Hill -
Peggy Hill -
Khan -
Khan's wife -
Dale Gribble - JORGENSON / did not vote
Dale's wife -
John Redcorn - BIDEN / did not vote
Boomhauer -
Bill Dautreve -
Cotton Hill - TRUMP

[SaneDemocrat]

Think more and more that Trump will win between 3.5-5

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas can narrow up, and may suprise us, but it's such a large state and pretty inelastic that it's hard to see it flipping

[Beet]

Texas has the potential to be a wildcard-- a dark horse. I don't think even Beto turned out all the potential Democrats here in 2018. And Cruz is a more "traditional Republican" aligned with Texas conservatism than Trump is. Biden is the best pick the Democrats could've made for Texas.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Texas is still a very red state, Cruz lost Tarrant county and still won the state by a lean margin. I think Biden could make it close if he tries, but doesn't have enough votes to win.

[Ferguson97]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

[QAnonKelly]

Think it will be within 2 points but not ready to flip yet.

[YE]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

Considering Beto didn’t max Hispanic turnout, I cannot day I agree with the first bit, even if TX probably doesn’t flip in 2020.

[LimoLiberal]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

I don't think polling bears this out at all. In a quick scan of polls taken in the later stage of the 2018 cycle, each had more Texans viewing Cruz favorably than unfavorably by 6-10 points. I doubt Trump is matching that right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since AK is becoming a major battleground state, in the Senate, TX will flip, since it's an oil state, too. AK gives UBI benefits to its residents of 1K a month due to its oil revenues.

[S019]

Changing demographics have put in play, and in a big enough landslide he could win it. It's definitely competitive, though

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

This seems right.  Beto/Cruz seems like the best case scenario for Democrats right now.  The Dems had a charismatic candidate and Ted Cruz is basically the worst human being alive.  So I don't see how Biden outperforms Beto even with some additional minority turnout.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

This seems right.  Beto/Cruz seems like the best case scenario for Democrats right now.  The Dems had a charismatic candidate and Ted Cruz is basically the worst human being alive.  So I don't see how Biden outperforms Beto even with some additional minority turnout.

The way some people talk about Texas here, you'd think Texans perceive Trump to be Mother Theresa compared to Cruz lol

This couldn't be further from the truth

[Ferguson97]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

This seems right.  Beto/Cruz seems like the best case scenario for Democrats right now.  The Dems had a charismatic candidate and Ted Cruz is basically the worst human being alive.  So I don't see how Biden outperforms Beto even with some additional minority turnout.

The way some people talk about Texas here, you'd think Texans perceive Trump to be Mother Theresa compared to Cruz lol

This couldn't be further from the truth

You're a Texas native, what do you think of Joe's chances?

[brucejoel99]

Every year, 113,000 Californians move to TX. What's more, suburban women who voted for Trump are regretting it, & the Latino population keeps growing.

So yes, Biden will put it into play if for no other reason than to ensure that Republicans have to allocate valuable resources to keep it & thus ensure that they'll lose more D-friendly states like MI, PA, & AZ.

[McGarnagle]

Hank Hill - Grudgingly Biden after grudgingly voting Trump four years prior, "I tell you h'what, I ain't gonna let this New York silver spoon goon lie to us anymore. At least Joe came through for Dubya with the Iraq War vote."

Peggy Hill - Says Trump to her friends, but goes for Biden in the end or doesn't vote. This fits her pattern of keeping up appearances while not being honest.

Khan - Depends on how he's feeling that week.

Khan's wife - Depends on how she's feeling that week. Khan and his wife seem very status oriented and would probably vote for who they think is going to win, rather than who they might think is right.

Dale Gribble - Jorgensen, or McAfee write-in, might have voted Trump in 2016 but Trump would've lost his trust by now

Dale's wife - Like Peggy, says Trump, votes Biden or doesn't vote in the end

John Redcorn - Might vote for Biden, not vote, or vote for Hawkins

Boomhauer - Dang ol' I tell you w'hat man I'm not enthusiastic about Biden man but I tell ya Trump doesn't understand women man he's all dang ol' grab-em-by-the-dang-ol'-you-know-what man when he doesn't realize the importance of feelings man

Bill Dautreve - Biden... I mean the guy dated Ann Richards and he'd be even more likely to choose Biden if he picks Duckworth, a veteran, as VP

Cotton Hill - Trump

[Pericles]

I think Trump probably does win Texas, but most likely not by more than 5%.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

There is no doubt TX will trend D again in 2020, but I think the trend will slow down a bit from 2016. In 2012 TX went from R+20 to R+11 in 2016. I would guess that TX will trend around 3-4 points D in 2020, bringing it to R+7-8. In a Biden landslide, it could flip.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

There is no doubt TX will trend D again in 2020, but I think the trend will slow down a bit from 2016. In 2012 TX went from R+20 to R+11 in 2016. I would guess that TX will trend around 3-4 points D in 2020, bringing it to R+7-8. In a Biden landslide, it could flip.

I believe the end result was +9 for Trump.

I predict a 5 point win for Trump in 2020

[Woody]

Daily reminder that Trump got 600,000+ more raw votes than O'Rourke.

[We Live in Black and White]

Daily reminder that Trump got 600,000+ more raw votes than O'Rourke.

[Pollster]

It’s worth the investment solely for the possibility of expanding the House majority and flipping the State House.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

This seems right.  Beto/Cruz seems like the best case scenario for Democrats right now.  The Dems had a charismatic candidate and Ted Cruz is basically the worst human being alive.  So I don't see how Biden outperforms Beto even with some additional minority turnout.

The way some people talk about Texas here, you'd think Texans perceive Trump to be Mother Theresa compared to Cruz lol

This couldn't be further from the truth

Do these people forget Cruz had a 51-39 approval rating or something like that?