TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.
Yep, still a Trump optimist.
I can't see Trump surging in Texas if he can't flip support in formerly-Republican suburbs (such as the one in which I was raised).
Of course, this is anecdotal and I can't speak for every one of these voters in every single Texas suburb, but these old-guard Bush-era Republicans (mostly white and college-educated) DON'T like Trump. And it's not even a "he has a big mouth and I wish he'd tweet less, but I'll still vote for him"-type situation.
Now, that's not to say that these voters will unanimously switch their registration and start voting Democratic from now on, but Trump needs these voters to attain pre-2016 level margins -- combined with a modest surge in rural votes.