Bold Predictions for November

[Ferguson97]

Arizona votes to the left of Wisconsin.

New Hampshire will vote Biden+5 and Minnesota will vote Biden+10.

Most states won't be able to be called on Election Night because of the large amount of mail-in ballots. We probably won't know the winner until a few days after at least.

Biden wins Nebraska CD-2 by 3-4 points. Trump wins Maine CD-2 by less than 3 points.

Montana and North Carolina will be the only split Senate/Presidential tickets. Both will vote D for the Senate, but Trump for President.

Trump wins South Carolina by single digits.

Michigan and PA vote to the left of NPV.

[Ferguson97]

-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

I feel like this one is statistically improbable. There's only a handful of realistic maps, and multiple people have probably already predicted the correct one.

[Ferguson97]

-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

I feel like this one is statistically improbable. There's only a handful of realistic maps, and multiple people have probably already predicted the correct one.

In 2016 no one got the exact map, and whenever Trump is on the ballot, things are crazy. Right now our consensus prediction has 7 tossup states, and 2^7 = 128, meaning that juts from that alone, already, 128 outcomes are possible

Yeah, but they're not all equally likely. There's no world in which Democrats win Georgia and Florida but lose Michigan and Pennsylvania this November.

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wins he will win big, if Biden wins he wil win big, the election won't be close either way.

I don't see how Trump expands his 2016 electorate.

[Ferguson97]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wins he will win big, if Biden wins he wil win big, the election won't be close either way.

I agree, and Biden has this one. My bold prediction, which others have laughed at before in this board, is that this year Trump loses half of the states that he carried in 2016, and does not pick up any Clinton states.

Is that bold? I thought that was the consensus.

[Ferguson97]

Here are my bold predictions:

- Trump improves on WWC voters
- Biden gets Obama level AA turn-out
- Biden falls to get Hispanic voters to turn out


Causing this map to happen:

 

That's a really hot take

[Ferguson97]

Donald Trump narrowly re-elected, but Democrats do great everywhere else.

Yeah it's not inconceivable that with enough split-ticket voting that Dems can take back the Senate (NC, ME, AZ, MT) but lose the presidency.

[Ferguson97]

Donald Trump narrowly re-elected, but Democrats do great everywhere else.

Yeah it's not inconceivable that with enough split-ticket voting that Dems can take back the Senate (NC, ME, AZ, MT) but lose the presidency.

[Ferguson97]

Just to rock the boat, lol

I'll laugh my ass off if Joe just ends up replicating Obama's 2012 map lmao.

[Ferguson97]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

False.

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

Would you care to elaborate?

[Ferguson97]

But anyway, yes:



And of course, the regional numbers (especially demographic crosstabs) when you look at the individual polls themselves were innumerable degrees of magnitude worse in times with.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

Would you care to elaborate?

First of all, would you?

Did you even look at what you just linked? Michigan and Pennsylvania are both within a margin of error.

[Ferguson97]

South Carolina's senate race will be the closest race where the incumbent is re-elected.

[Ferguson97]

Biden: 309

Trump: 229

[Ferguson97]

After all the concerns about a 2016 redux and "underestimating Trump"; four years of bedwetting, overanalysis, and "learning lessons"; and excessive focus on/obsession over the "WWC" Obama/Trump voter, Donald Trump's presidency is ended by the "silent" suburban voter who couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary Clinton and considered Trump the lesser of two evils in 2016, record Democratic turnout across the country (but especially in metropolitan America, where we see unprecedented numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Bozeman ), and Biden's inroads among voters 65 and older. Biden flips MI, PA, AZ, NE-02, and two other states. States with the strongest D swings include MT, KS, TX, and AZ (which votes to the left of most, if not all, other battleground states). Everyone says that they saw it coming all along, that Biden was always far better-positioned than Hillary Clinton, that an incumbent like Trump never had a chance, that 2018 was an obvious sign of things to come, that Democrats did not hit a ceiling in Sun Belt urban/suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, and that they never doubted that Trump only won in 2016 because of the historic unpopularity of his opponent.

Biden doesn’t gain that much ground in most areas which trended strongly Republican in 2016 (with some exceptions like counties with a large number of Native American and "anti-incumbent" voters, especially in MT), but he manages to either make small inroads or at least hold his own in those states (e.g., only losing IA by 6-7 points, and losing OH by 4-5 points), which is more than enough to win the election. Democrats finally give up on Iowa as it turns out to be Trump's best swing state and Ernst wins reelection despite the Democratic onslaught, not least due to her #retailpolitics.

The Senate is incredibly close and not called on election night, with the closest races (decided by less than five percentage points) being MT (which is one of the last races to be called, as Daines does worse than Gianforte and Rosendale and the race is nip and tuck throughout the night until the wee hours), NC, GA-R, MI, TX, KS, and ME. MI and TX in particular are more competitive than initially expected, as Cornyn barely outperforms Trump and Peters actually runs behind Biden. Both GA seats go to a runoff, and Perdue just barely receives fewer votes than Ossoff in the first round as his Gwinnett GOTV Gang falls asleep at the wheel and his Cobb County Connections abandon him. There’s more split-ticket voting in smaller states (MT/AK/KS/ME) than expected. McSally and Gardner lose pretty badly (Gardner by more than Jones), and Tommy Tuberville picks up AL by an embarrassing margin after national Republican groups + Trump come to his rescue (he barely outperforms Roy Moore in urban AL and even slightly underperforms him in a few suburban counties, but is pulled across the finish line by presidential year turnout among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, the absence of a lopsided enthusiasm gap, and Trump's 22-point margin in the presidential race in AL).

All of this is really bold but also really plausible. Nice work.

[Ferguson97]

All of this is really bold but also really plausible. Nice work.

Thanks, already looking forward to how much (if anything) I got right. Someone needs to bump this thread after the election.

Remind me of of that, I wanna see how accurate my map on the previous page is (I'm relatively confident).

[Ferguson97]

Georgia votes left of Ohio

[Ferguson97]

Georgia votes left of Ohio

How is this bold? It happened in 2016 already, pretty easily too.

Huh. I don't know why I thought Ohio was closer.

[Ferguson97]

Tied election, total chaos, constitutional crisis. Seems fitting.

I think this is a more likely tie scenario

[Ferguson97]

Florida votes to the left of Arizona.

The time travellers from 2000s and early 2010s need to see this

Would it really be that shocking though? Arizona was hard right until very recently and Florida is a swing state.

If anything, wouldn't "AZ votes the left of FL" be a bolder take?

[Ferguson97]

Maine will go hard for Biden.

People are massively overrating Maine's chances of flipping. Susan Collins was (previously) uniquely well-liked and Hillary was uniquely disliked.

Biden wins Maine by 6-7 points. 

[Ferguson97]

After all the concerns about a 2016 redux and "underestimating Trump"; four years of bedwetting, overanalysis, and "learning lessons"; and excessive focus on/obsession over the "WWC" Obama/Trump voter, Donald Trump's presidency is ended by the "silent" suburban voter who couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary Clinton and considered Trump the lesser of two evils in 2016, record Democratic turnout across the country (but especially in metropolitan America, where we see unprecedented numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Bozeman ), and Biden's inroads among voters 65 and older. Biden flips MI, PA, AZ, NE-02, and two other states. States with the strongest D swings include MT, KS, TX, and AZ (which votes to the left of most, if not all, other battleground states). Everyone says that they saw it coming all along, that Biden was always far better-positioned than Hillary Clinton, that an incumbent like Trump never had a chance, that 2018 was an obvious sign of things to come, that Democrats did not hit a ceiling in Sun Belt urban/suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, and that they never doubted that Trump only won in 2016 because of the historic unpopularity of his opponent.

Biden doesn’t gain that much ground in most areas which trended strongly Republican in 2016 (with some exceptions like counties with a large number of Native American and "anti-incumbent" voters, especially in MT), but he manages to either make small inroads or at least hold his own in those states (e.g., only losing IA by 6-7 points, and losing OH by 4-5 points), which is more than enough to win the election. Democrats finally give up on Iowa as it turns out to be Trump's best swing state and Ernst wins reelection despite the Democratic onslaught, not least due to her #retailpolitics.

The Senate is incredibly close and not called on election night, with the closest races (decided by less than five percentage points) being MT (which is one of the last races to be called, as Daines does worse than Gianforte and Rosendale and the race is nip and tuck throughout the night until the wee hours), NC, GA-R, MI, TX, KS, and ME. MI and TX in particular are more competitive than initially expected, as Cornyn barely outperforms Trump and Peters actually runs behind Biden. Both GA seats go to a runoff, and Perdue just barely receives fewer votes than Ossoff in the first round as his Gwinnett GOTV Gang falls asleep at the wheel and his Cobb County Connections abandon him. There’s more split-ticket voting in smaller states (MT/AK/KS/ME) than expected. McSally and Gardner lose pretty badly (Gardner by more than Jones), and Tommy Tuberville picks up AL by an embarrassing margin after national Republican groups + Trump come to his rescue (he barely outperforms Roy Moore in urban AL and even slightly underperforms him in a few suburban counties, but is pulled across the finish line by presidential year turnout among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, the absence of a lopsided enthusiasm gap, and Trump's 22-point margin in the presidential race in AL).

LOL That is a pipe dream.  You are basically saying 2016 was a fluke.

Yes it was.

[Ferguson97]

After all the concerns about a 2016 redux and "underestimating Trump"; four years of bedwetting, overanalysis, and "learning lessons"; and excessive focus on/obsession over the "WWC" Obama/Trump voter, Donald Trump's presidency is ended by the "silent" suburban voter who couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary Clinton and considered Trump the lesser of two evils in 2016, record Democratic turnout across the country (but especially in metropolitan America, where we see unprecedented numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Bozeman ), and Biden's inroads among voters 65 and older. Biden flips MI, PA, AZ, NE-02, and two other states. States with the strongest D swings include MT, KS, TX, and AZ (which votes to the left of most, if not all, other battleground states). Everyone says that they saw it coming all along, that Biden was always far better-positioned than Hillary Clinton, that an incumbent like Trump never had a chance, that 2018 was an obvious sign of things to come, that Democrats did not hit a ceiling in Sun Belt urban/suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, and that they never doubted that Trump only won in 2016 because of the historic unpopularity of his opponent.

Biden doesn’t gain that much ground in most areas which trended strongly Republican in 2016 (with some exceptions like counties with a large number of Native American and "anti-incumbent" voters, especially in MT), but he manages to either make small inroads or at least hold his own in those states (e.g., only losing IA by 6-7 points, and losing OH by 4-5 points), which is more than enough to win the election. Democrats finally give up on Iowa as it turns out to be Trump's best swing state and Ernst wins reelection despite the Democratic onslaught, not least due to her #retailpolitics.

The Senate is incredibly close and not called on election night, with the closest races (decided by less than five percentage points) being MT (which is one of the last races to be called, as Daines does worse than Gianforte and Rosendale and the race is nip and tuck throughout the night until the wee hours), NC, GA-R, MI, TX, KS, and ME. MI and TX in particular are more competitive than initially expected, as Cornyn barely outperforms Trump and Peters actually runs behind Biden. Both GA seats go to a runoff, and Perdue just barely receives fewer votes than Ossoff in the first round as his Gwinnett GOTV Gang falls asleep at the wheel and his Cobb County Connections abandon him. There’s more split-ticket voting in smaller states (MT/AK/KS/ME) than expected. McSally and Gardner lose pretty badly (Gardner by more than Jones), and Tommy Tuberville picks up AL by an embarrassing margin after national Republican groups + Trump come to his rescue (he barely outperforms Roy Moore in urban AL and even slightly underperforms him in a few suburban counties, but is pulled across the finish line by presidential year turnout among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, the absence of a lopsided enthusiasm gap, and Trump's 22-point margin in the presidential race in AL).

LOL That is a pipe dream.  You are basically saying 2016 was a fluke.

Yes it was.

Right all those WWC voters will magically flip to dems. The truth is both things are happening. GOP is continuing to lose more college educated whites while democrats continue to lose more WWC. Biden def does worse with WWC than Hillary which is why MN will flip and Trump keeps all the midwest states. He will lose GA or AZ before he loses the Midwest.

There is a good chance Trump keeps Wisconsin - and I think he WILL keep Iowa and Ohio - but Trump is going to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[Ferguson97]

After all the concerns about a 2016 redux and "underestimating Trump"; four years of bedwetting, overanalysis, and "learning lessons"; and excessive focus on/obsession over the "WWC" Obama/Trump voter, Donald Trump's presidency is ended by the "silent" suburban voter who couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary Clinton and considered Trump the lesser of two evils in 2016, record Democratic turnout across the country (but especially in metropolitan America, where we see unprecedented numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Bozeman ), and Biden's inroads among voters 65 and older. Biden flips MI, PA, AZ, NE-02, and two other states. States with the strongest D swings include MT, KS, TX, and AZ (which votes to the left of most, if not all, other battleground states). Everyone says that they saw it coming all along, that Biden was always far better-positioned than Hillary Clinton, that an incumbent like Trump never had a chance, that 2018 was an obvious sign of things to come, that Democrats did not hit a ceiling in Sun Belt urban/suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, and that they never doubted that Trump only won in 2016 because of the historic unpopularity of his opponent.

Biden doesn’t gain that much ground in most areas which trended strongly Republican in 2016 (with some exceptions like counties with a large number of Native American and "anti-incumbent" voters, especially in MT), but he manages to either make small inroads or at least hold his own in those states (e.g., only losing IA by 6-7 points, and losing OH by 4-5 points), which is more than enough to win the election. Democrats finally give up on Iowa as it turns out to be Trump's best swing state and Ernst wins reelection despite the Democratic onslaught, not least due to her #retailpolitics.

The Senate is incredibly close and not called on election night, with the closest races (decided by less than five percentage points) being MT (which is one of the last races to be called, as Daines does worse than Gianforte and Rosendale and the race is nip and tuck throughout the night until the wee hours), NC, GA-R, MI, TX, KS, and ME. MI and TX in particular are more competitive than initially expected, as Cornyn barely outperforms Trump and Peters actually runs behind Biden. Both GA seats go to a runoff, and Perdue just barely receives fewer votes than Ossoff in the first round as his Gwinnett GOTV Gang falls asleep at the wheel and his Cobb County Connections abandon him. There’s more split-ticket voting in smaller states (MT/AK/KS/ME) than expected. McSally and Gardner lose pretty badly (Gardner by more than Jones), and Tommy Tuberville picks up AL by an embarrassing margin after national Republican groups + Trump come to his rescue (he barely outperforms Roy Moore in urban AL and even slightly underperforms him in a few suburban counties, but is pulled across the finish line by presidential year turnout among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, the absence of a lopsided enthusiasm gap, and Trump's 22-point margin in the presidential race in AL).

LOL That is a pipe dream.  You are basically saying 2016 was a fluke.

Yes it was.

Right all those WWC voters will magically flip to dems. The truth is both things are happening. GOP is continuing to lose more college educated whites while democrats continue to lose more WWC. Biden def does worse with WWC than Hillary which is why MN will flip and Trump keeps all the midwest states. He will lose GA or AZ before he loses the Midwest.

There is a good chance Trump keeps Wisconsin - and I think he WILL keep Iowa and Ohio - but Trump is going to lose Michigan and Wisconsin.

You mean MI and PA? I think MI votes to the right of PA. PA will be tight.

Whoops. Yeah, I mean Michigan and PA.

Trump is consistently down in Michigan, and Pennsylvania is Biden's home turf. I don't really see how he loses them unless something dramatic happens.

[Ferguson97]

Senate

Republicans only flip is Alabama. Tommy T wins by double digits, but Jones over-performs the polls by about 4-5%. Republicans hold on to Iowa, Georgia special, Texas, and Kansas (Kobach loses the primary).

Democrats flip Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and the Georgia regular election. Gary Peters wins by a larger margin that Biden.

House

Democrats gain <10 seats.

Presidential

Nebraska CD-2 votes to the left of Wisconsin.

Biden over-performs in Georgia and wins the state.

Trump improves his margins in Nevada and Oregon, but loses them both.

Biden under-performs in Arizona but still wins the state.

Trump wins just under 200 EV.

Biden wins 52.1% PV to Trump's 46.3%.