Bold Predictions for November

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bold predictions is that anything can happen, but the exact map of 2016 isnt likely since Trump only won on the back of Johnson and Amash isnt in the race.

Dems are contesting 50 states and Biden isnt Hilary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A direct duplicate of a 2016 election is improbable since Trump isnt gonna get Amash to take votes like Johnson did. That's why that R internal trying to make PA lean Trump, isn't relevant, Johnson was the difference in a Trump victory.


Biden wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think conservatives are quick to think the Pandemic is over, Trump isn't corrupted due to his lawyers being freed from jail and 100K arent dead. They want to go back to thinking we are living in a 3.5 percent unemployment economy,  no Trump is still gonna lose, he hasnt expanded his base and only won by tiny margins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Georgia votes left of Ohio

You know OH has 18  percent. African American in Cincinnati and Cleveland metros, That's why OH has voted for every winning Dem Truman, LBJ Carter, Clinton and Obama.

Ohio being a solid R state is a myth, and Cordray only lost by 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

- Georgia votes to the left of Minnesota, Biden wins GA.
- Arizona votes to the left of Maine
- Arizona is not close at all.
- Wisconsin votes at least 10 points to the right of the nation
- McGrath defeats McConnell in Kentucky (although only in case Biden wins the election…). Regardless, she will be very close.
- Democrats take back the senate.
- Surprisingly low turn-out among minority voters and the youth, and those who do swing towards Trump. Biden makes improvements among the elderly and as expected college educated voters.
- TX is not close at all, not within 5 points.
- Cunningham, Gideon, Bullock, McGrath win while the president win those states, although in case of NC and ME very narrowly. Kelly and Hickenlooper obviously win as well. Georgia senate races i won't call.
- SC senate race is surprisingly close at well, within 5 points. SC general race is within 10 points.
- Biden wins the PV by 5, but that might not be enough. Trump just needs one toss-up state. Biden needs both. Those states i won't call. At least i can't be blamed for calling the election wrongly. I think they're tilt Biden in this scenario, ensuring Biden has a sweaty night.
- In this scenario MI (or GA) ends up being the tipping point state.
- I think MI votes to the right of PA, so that if Trump needs one of the two. Michigan would secure him the election, but it could end up voting to the left of GA, in which GA would be the tipping point state.
- AZ, NH, NV, CO, VA, NM are not close at all.
- IA votes 20 points to the right of the nation, maybe even 25, overtaking AK, MT and MO.

Plausible

Sigh, WI, and ME will go D before AZ.

WI voted D in 1976 Carter, 1988 Dukakis, 1992-96 Clinton, 2000-04 Gore and Kerry and Obama 2008-12, it's a Union state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt cracking the blue wall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

- Biden's lead slowly shrinks, due to increased gaffes, until August when Trump pulls even after the RNC. Biden then has a fantastic first debate performance shocking the political world and is up 5 pts after the first debate. Trump then has a comeback debate performance like Obama did in 2012 and shortly after the 2nd debate is an October surprise that greatly benefits Trump and in the second debate Biden has a moment where it appears he doesn't know where he is. Trump is tied or slightly ahead in October and polls show a virtual tie on election day (some polls have Biden ahead 1-2 pts , some polls have Trump ahead 1-2 pts)
- Trump does better in California than 2016 by 3-4%.
- Trump wins the popular vote by 200,000 votes and receives 67.5 million votes to Biden's 67.3 million. The election is not all that close in the end due to the EC where Trump expands his margins from 2016.
- Trump destroys Biden with WWC voters by an even larger margin than 2016 while Biden does better among college educated whites than Hillary leading to him coming incredibly close to winning Arizona but loses by 1%. Biden pulls a big upset in GA based on doing even better with suburban Atlanta voters and wins GA by .5%.
- Trump dominates the Midwest winning MI, PA, WI, OH, IA and picking up MN from 2016 on the strength of huge margins with WWC voters.
- Trump wins Macomb County MI by 15%. Trump loses Oakland County MI by 8%.
- On strength of increased WWC vote Trump wins ME-2 by close to 20 pts and wins ME at large and new Hampshire.
- FL votes to the right of GA by 2.5%
- MI votes to the right of PA by 1%.
- Trump wins Iowa by 17% and Ohio by 10%.
- Trump wins Florida by 2.5% and does better with Hispanics in FL than 2016.
- Republicans under perform in Senate races losing in Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina while John James scores an upset by just 1% over Gary Peters on the backs of WWC voters and over performing with African-Americans. Trump has a campaign rally in Macomb County weeks before the election with John James that draws 100,000 people.
- Trump outperforms James by about 1.5%. Trump wins MI by 2.5% to James 1%
- Trump does slightly worse than in TX than 2016 winning it by around 6%.
- Biden wins Nevada by just .3%. Biden under performs with Hispanics.

Trump 302

Biden 236

MN is not going R, if it didnt happen in 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are in recovery now and not in a Recession, Trump best scenario was getting back to a neutral year and we are seeing signs of that now. The last Rassy poll had Bideb up 5.

Ds can very well win a narrow majority in the House and tie the Senate, but Trump is far from done, and he will have 911 as a backdrop to his convention.

Biden held up in his basement was a flawed strategy, due to not wanting to deal with Reade and comments made about AA, does mean guilt; otherwise he would of taken reporters Q and A

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another bold prediction: GA swings right and Trump carries it by Romney margins.

GA isnt gonna shift right and most polls in GA show GA as a battleground state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Projections are as follows D's will win 70/65M, 291/334 and 235 House seats and 53/47 seats.

500/38 80/65M and 60/40 is not in the cards which are predictions😀😀😀, and D's will only add 2 liberal Justices not 4 and add DC statehood to Crt paco

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The bold predicting in Nov, is that it will be bold for you not to predict a Biden slide. Trump did himself no good by having another superspreader pack rallies in the heart in WI in the Cold, yesterday, he may feel fine but the people that went to them are spreaders

Covid is a common cold and there isn't a cure for the virus

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

413 map, sans florida.

There aren't gonna be any 413 maps FL/TX are less likely to go D than AZ, NC and GA, , 53 M Early votes doesn't translate into an 100M EC vote victory for Biden, that he needs for a 413 landslide. People under 35 arent voting or participating like they were energized to do during height of George Floyd protesters.

It will be 70/65M the needed vote total needed to overcome a PVI and EC split that Hillary had of 65/62.

What happened to I can't breath chants by youngsters, they are 0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are never gonna have a 413 EC landslide, we are too polarized for this 300 EC votes and NC, GA and VA  now are more D leaning than both TX/FL