Bold Predictions for November

[Ferguson97]

After all the concerns about a 2016 redux and "underestimating Trump"; four years of bedwetting, overanalysis, and "learning lessons"; and excessive focus on/obsession over the "WWC" Obama/Trump voter, Donald Trump's presidency is ended by the "silent" suburban voter who couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary Clinton and considered Trump the lesser of two evils in 2016, record Democratic turnout across the country (but especially in metropolitan America, where we see unprecedented numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Bozeman ), and Biden's inroads among voters 65 and older. Biden flips MI, PA, AZ, NE-02, and two other states. States with the strongest D swings include MT, KS, TX, and AZ (which votes to the left of most, if not all, other battleground states). Everyone says that they saw it coming all along, that Biden was always far better-positioned than Hillary Clinton, that an incumbent like Trump never had a chance, that 2018 was an obvious sign of things to come, that Democrats did not hit a ceiling in Sun Belt urban/suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, and that they never doubted that Trump only won in 2016 because of the historic unpopularity of his opponent.

Biden doesn’t gain that much ground in most areas which trended strongly Republican in 2016 (with some exceptions like counties with a large number of Native American and "anti-incumbent" voters, especially in MT), but he manages to either make small inroads or at least hold his own in those states (e.g., only losing IA by 6-7 points, and losing OH by 4-5 points), which is more than enough to win the election. Democrats finally give up on Iowa as it turns out to be Trump's best swing state and Ernst wins reelection despite the Democratic onslaught, not least due to her #retailpolitics.

The Senate is incredibly close and not called on election night, with the closest races (decided by less than five percentage points) being MT (which is one of the last races to be called, as Daines does worse than Gianforte and Rosendale and the race is nip and tuck throughout the night until the wee hours), NC, GA-R, MI, TX, KS, and ME. MI and TX in particular are more competitive than initially expected, as Cornyn barely outperforms Trump and Peters actually runs behind Biden. Both GA seats go to a runoff, and Perdue just barely receives fewer votes than Ossoff in the first round as his Gwinnett GOTV Gang falls asleep at the wheel and his Cobb County Connections abandon him. There’s more split-ticket voting in smaller states (MT/AK/KS/ME) than expected. McSally and Gardner lose pretty badly (Gardner by more than Jones), and Tommy Tuberville picks up AL by an embarrassing margin after national Republican groups + Trump come to his rescue (he barely outperforms Roy Moore in urban AL and even slightly underperforms him in a few suburban counties, but is pulled across the finish line by presidential year turnout among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, the absence of a lopsided enthusiasm gap, and Trump's 22-point margin in the presidential race in AL).

All of this is really bold but also really plausible. Nice work.

[MT Treasurer]

All of this is really bold but also really plausible. Nice work.

Thanks, already looking forward to how much (if anything) I got right. Someone needs to bump this thread after the election.

[Ferguson97]

All of this is really bold but also really plausible. Nice work.

Thanks, already looking forward to how much (if anything) I got right. Someone needs to bump this thread after the election.

Remind me of of that, I wanna see how accurate my map on the previous page is (I'm relatively confident).

[SJ84]

- Joe Biden selects Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate and makes the announcement around mid-July in the battleground state of Arizona.

- During Joe Biden’s DNC acceptance speech, he pledges to make some of his democratic rivals part of a Biden/Harris administration. Stacey Abrams goes on to stay she wants to serve in the administration but makes it clear she wanted to be selected as vice president.

- Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg donates $100 million to the Biden/Harris campaign in September after some polls showing the Trump/Pence ticket with small leads in battleground states.

- On Election Day, the Biden/Harris ticket wins 297 electoral votes whereas the Trump/Pence ticket wins 241 electoral votes, much like the Carter/Mondale win of 1976.

- The Biden/Harris ticket win battleground states AZ, OH, CO, NV, NH, MI, PA. AZ and OH are very narrow wins (around .5%) but MI, CO, NV, NH and PA are surprisingly comfortable wins with more than 5% over the Trump/Pence ticket.

- The Trump/Pence ticket barely wins WI with .5% and they also hold ME D2, FL, GA and NC.

- The Democrats win senate seats in AZ, CO and surprisingly MT, where Gov. Steve Bullock narrowly wins. Sen. Susan Collins of ME and Sen. Tom Tillis of NC barely win re-election. AL Sen. Doug Jones is crushed in his race. The GOP narrowly hold control of the senate.

- The Democrats hold the House of Representatives.

- President Donald Trump refuses to concede to President-elect Joe Biden on Election Night, however, Trump does concede a few days later during a special TV broadcast to the nation. He states he will step down to allow the new president to come in but rants on about how the election was stolen from him and that Joe Biden will be a fake president.

- Late November and throughout December and into January, President-elect Joe Biden announces some cabinet (and other high level) nominees and staff, including Susan Rice as Secretary of State, outgoing Sen. Doug Jones as Attorney General, Sen. Michael Bennet as Secretary of Education, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand as Secretary of Defense, former mayor Pete Buttigieg as Secretary of Homeland Security, Sylvia Mathews Burwell as Secretary for Health and Human Services, former Congressman Beto O’Rourke as Secretary of the Interior, Stacey Abrams as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and Ron Klain as Chief of Staff.

- CA Governor Gavin Newsom announces Congressman Eric Swalwell will replace Vice President-elect Kamala Harris in the U.S. Senate. CO Governor Jared Polis appoints CO Lt. Governor Dianne Primavera to the U.S. Senate to replace outgoing Sen. Michael Bennet. NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo appoints Congresswoman Kathleen Rice to fill outgoing Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat.

[Ferguson97]

Georgia votes left of Ohio

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Georgia votes left of Ohio

You know OH has 18  percent. African American in Cincinnati and Cleveland metros, That's why OH has voted for every winning Dem Truman, LBJ Carter, Clinton and Obama.

Ohio being a solid R state is a myth, and Cordray only lost by 4

[Lognog]

Georgia votes left of Ohio

You know OH has 18  percent. African American in Cincinnati and Cleveland metros, That's why OH has voted for every winning Dem Truman, LBJ Carter, Clinton and Obama.

Ohio being a solid R state is a myth, and Cordray only lost by 4

yeah but he lost by four in a D+9 night. Not only him but every other state wide democrat besides brown

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia votes left of Ohio

How is this bold? It happened in 2016 already, pretty easily too.

[Skye]

Watch the third party vote be lower than in 2008.

[Ferguson97]

Georgia votes left of Ohio

How is this bold? It happened in 2016 already, pretty easily too.

Huh. I don't know why I thought Ohio was closer.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Watch the third party vote be lower than in 2008.

Not bold. With Perot being the most glaring exception, the third party vote tends to drop dramatically when an incumbent is running.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

- Georgia votes to the left of Minnesota, Biden wins GA.
- Arizona votes to the left of Maine
- Arizona is not close at all.
- Wisconsin votes at least 10 points to the right of the nation
- McGrath defeats McConnell in Kentucky (although only in case Biden wins the election…). Regardless, she will be very close.
- Democrats take back the senate.
- Surprisingly low turn-out among minority voters and the youth, and those who do swing towards Trump. Biden makes improvements among the elderly and as expected college educated voters.
- TX is not close at all, not within 5 points.
- Cunningham, Gideon, Bullock, McGrath win while the president win those states, although in case of NC and ME very narrowly. Kelly and Hickenlooper obviously win as well. Georgia senate races i won't call.
- SC senate race is surprisingly close at well, within 5 points. SC general race is within 10 points.
- Biden wins the PV by 5, but that might not be enough. Trump just needs one toss-up state. Biden needs both. Those states i won't call. At least i can't be blamed for calling the election wrongly. I think they're tilt Biden in this scenario, ensuring Biden has a sweaty night.
- In this scenario MI (or GA) ends up being the tipping point state.
- I think MI votes to the right of PA, so that if Trump needs one of the two. Michigan would secure him the election, but it could end up voting to the left of GA, in which GA would be the tipping point state.
- AZ, NH, NV, CO, VA, NM are not close at all.
- IA votes 20 points to the right of the nation, maybe even 25, overtaking AK, MT and MO.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

But anyway, yes:



And of course, the regional numbers (especially demographic crosstabs) when you look at the individual polls themselves were innumerable degrees of magnitude worse in times with.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

Would you care to elaborate?

First of all, would you?

Did you even look at what you just linked? Michigan and Pennsylvania are both within a margin of error.

...

You're right. State polls were vastly wrong in 2016. I don't understand why someone would try to defend state polls. MoE. They were vastly wrong, esp. in MN, IA and WI. But calling it in the MoE in PA and MI is ridicilous as well. Not to say that polls like Rasmussen Reports and Firehouse Optimises (orr how it is called), and Republican internal pollsters skew the poll data, which nobody took seriously before the election.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Ohio and Iowa are both within 3 points.

[Skye]

Watch the third party vote be lower than in 2008.

Not bold. With Perot being the most glaring exception, the third party vote tends to drop dramatically when an incumbent is running.

2012 though?

[Reaganfan]

The map won't change much. Maybe one or two state flips.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Tied election, total chaos, constitutional crisis. Seems fitting.

[Ferguson97]

Tied election, total chaos, constitutional crisis. Seems fitting.

I think this is a more likely tie scenario

[The Other Castro]

Alaska is closer than Maine.

[It’s so Joever]

Florida votes to the left of Arizona.

[ShadowRocket]

2020 basically pans out as a 2008 redux with Repulicans being blown of out the water across the board and Trump being defeated in a near-landslide.

Biden/Warren: 368
Trump/Pence: 170


The House remains largely unchanged with the Democrats picking up a small handful of seats.

The Democrats win control of the Senate with victories in AZ, CO, ME, NC, MT, KS, and GA-Regular.  Their only defeats being in AL and GA-Special. Democrats in the MA legislature quickly change the special election law to mandate Gov. Baker pick a Democrat for Warren's seat.

[jake_arlington]

Nice! What really stood out to me here was not so much GA voting dem while FL and NC go blue on this map (many users have predicted this trend, even though I disagree strongly with FL ftr) nor MN = GOP but AZ for Biden either.

Rather, the striking part that pops out to the eye is ME atlas-blue but NH red...interesting analysis. Though some on here discussed the possibility in the immediately aftermath of 2016 afaik, it seems to have faded away later as things shifted back toward a pre-year stasis of default standing. Would be interested to hear how you came to this conclusion. In either case, great work with the list!

[jake_arlington]

Florida votes to the left of Arizona.

The time travellers from 2000s and early 2010s need to see this

[jake_arlington]

Tied election, total chaos, constitutional crisis. Seems fitting.

I think this is a more likely tie scenario

Hat actually naw.

[Ferguson97]

Florida votes to the left of Arizona.

The time travellers from 2000s and early 2010s need to see this

Would it really be that shocking though? Arizona was hard right until very recently and Florida is a swing state.

If anything, wouldn't "AZ votes the left of FL" be a bolder take?