Bold Predictions for November

[Pericles]

Senate

Republicans only flip is Alabama. Tommy T wins by double digits, but Jones over-performs the polls by about 4-5%. Republicans hold on to Iowa, Georgia special, Texas, and Kansas (Kobach loses the primary).

Democrats flip Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and the Georgia regular election. Gary Peters wins by a larger margin that Biden.

House

Democrats gain <10 seats.

Presidential

Nebraska CD-2 votes to the left of Wisconsin.

Biden over-performs in Georgia and wins the state.

Trump improves his margins in Nevada and Oregon, but loses them both.

Biden under-performs in Arizona but still wins the state.

Trump wins just under 200 EV.

Biden wins 52.1% PV to Trump's 46.3%.

Mixed bag of predictions here. Good calls were NC Senate, NE-02 presidential, and Trump under 200 EV. Bad calls were Montana/Iowa Senate and NPV.

The results aren't in yet.

[Hammy]

-PA and MI vote to the right of Atlas consensus
-Trump wins GA and TX by a few points (this should be a common sense take, but sadly that is lacking on Atlas)
-Florida's within a half point and both get around 49%
-Biden wins ME-02, getting over 50% without need for IRV count

[Ferguson97]

Senate

Republicans only flip is Alabama. Tommy T wins by double digits, but Jones over-performs the polls by about 4-5%. Republicans hold on to Iowa, Georgia special, Texas, and Kansas (Kobach loses the primary).

Democrats flip Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and the Georgia regular election. Gary Peters wins by a larger margin that Biden.

House

Democrats gain <10 seats.

Presidential

Nebraska CD-2 votes to the left of Wisconsin.

Biden over-performs in Georgia and wins the state.

Trump improves his margins in Nevada and Oregon, but loses them both.

Biden under-performs in Arizona but still wins the state.

Trump wins just under 200 EV.

Biden wins 52.1% PV to Trump's 46.3%.

Mixed bag of predictions here. Good calls were NC Senate, NE-02 presidential, and Trump under 200 EV. Bad calls were Montana/Iowa Senate and NPV.

The results aren't in yet.

I know, just comparing the May prediction to the state of the race now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

-MT is closer than it was in 2016, like Trump +8
-Trump's EC advantage grows significantly, with a bunch of states voting a few points to the right of the country
-Democrats lose the senate, and partisanship wins out, except in ME
-The house is closer than expected but Ds hold on
-Biden wins FL
-ME swings heavily in either direction
-MI votes to the left of MN, unless Klobs is the VP
-Polling underestimates Biden a bit
-Democrats have dissapointing results in TX
-NV votes simillar to AZ
-Someone dies in a competative house or senate race, causing a flip
-Biden flips NE-2, and it goes to him by a few points
-The October suprise seems bad for Ds and seems to help Trump but doesn't cahnge the outcome
-The economic recovery helps Trump a bit
-On election day, the weather is really crappy somewhere, causing a weird result
-States that didn't get hit as hard by COVID swing to Trump a bit
-NC votes to the right of FL
-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

This aged poorly

[ProgressiveModerate]

New bold predictions:

-Biden wins TX, but at least one state on the 413 map goes to Trump
-Maine-Sen goes to Gideon by about the same amount as AZ-Sen goes to Kelly
-PA is the most likely rust belt state to flip
-Cornyn has a real scare
-Republicans call bull on the election saying Democrats did “too well”
-Partisanship wins out in most of KS, AK, MT, and SC senate races, but at least one is unexpectedly close
-Polling is largely pretty accurate and isn’t off universally in one canidate’s favor
-Gary Peters has somewhat of a scare
-NC-Sen votes in lockstep with NC on the Presidential level
-ACB will suddenly start seeing an increase in media
-At least one of MT, SC, and AK are closer than expected
-NE-2 easily goes to Biden
-Nunes loses or comes close to losing

[S019ian Liberal]

florida's margin exceeds >3.5% and gets called around 9 or 10 pm EST, certainly by 11

NM will vote to the right of VA/CO.

Welcome to the forum! I'm glad you're not afraid to make bold predictions.

Thank you!

- Trump wins FL by more than 2 points, but loses both Georgia and North Carolina
- Iowa and Georgia are both razor thin close states, Trump ends up carrying Iowa while Biden carries Georgia
- Ohio goes for Biden

idk man i dont see trump winning this

Why do you think FL will vote so much further to the right of GA?

-MT is closer than it was in 2016, like Trump +8
-Trump's EC advantage grows significantly, with a bunch of states voting a few points to the right of the country
-Democrats lose the senate, and partisanship wins out, except in ME
-The house is closer than expected but Ds hold on
-Biden wins FL
-ME swings heavily in either direction
-MI votes to the left of MN, unless Klobs is the VP
-Polling underestimates Biden a bit
-Democrats have dissapointing results in TX
-NV votes simillar to AZ
-Someone dies in a competative house or senate race, causing a flip
-Biden flips NE-2, and it goes to him by a few points
-The October suprise seems bad for Ds and seems to help Trump but doesn't cahnge the outcome
-The economic recovery helps Trump a bit
-On election day, the weather is really crappy somewhere, causing a weird result
-States that didn't get hit as hard by COVID swing to Trump a bit
-NC votes to the right of FL
-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

This aged poorly

The last one is a very interesting point. Curious to see if you still stand by it?

-PA and MI vote to the right of Atlas consensus
-Trump wins GA and TX by a few points (this should be a common sense take, but sadly that is lacking on Atlas)
-Florida's within a half point and both get around 49%
-Biden wins ME-02, getting over 50% without need for IRV count

so what's the atlas consensus on pennsylvania?

New bold predictions:

-Biden wins TX, but at least one state on the 413 map goes to Trump
-Maine-Sen goes to Gideon by about the same amount as AZ-Sen goes to Kelly
-MI is the most likely rust belt state to flip
-Cornyn has a real scare
-Republicans call bull on the election saying Democrats did “too well”
-Partisanship wins out in most of KS, AK, MT, and SC senate races, but at least one is unexpectedly close
-Polling is largely pretty accurate and isn’t off universally in one canidate’s favor
-Gary Peters has somewhat of a scare
-NC-Sen votes in lockstep with NC on the Presidential level
-ACB will suddenly start seeing an increase in media
-At least one of MT, SC, and AK are closer than expected
-NE-2 easily goes to Biden
-Nunes loses or comes close to losing

The third example is not really "bold" is it? Unless you're defining Midwest as something other than WI, MI, and PA about.

I really like the bolded ones too

What are your bold predictions for the House, since I haven't seen to many of those on here?

Republicans get absolutely slaughtered in the Senate, at least one out of Harrison, Bollier, Hegar (!!) wins. And probably 2 of them

[Hammy]

NM will vote to the right of VA/CO.

Welcome to the forum.

Bold prediction, but I can see it happening as the latter two seem like they're zooming to the left.

[Stuart98]

The GOP is gonna lose several races they were favored in due to lower than expected election day turnout.

Not banking votes ahead of time is a very not good strategy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Projections are as follows D's will win 70/65M, 291/334 and 235 House seats and 53/47 seats.

500/38 80/65M and 60/40 is not in the cards which are predictions😀😀😀, and D's will only add 2 liberal Justices not 4 and add DC statehood to Crt paco

[morgankingsley]

Trump still hits at least 200

[S019ian Liberal]

Biden win New Hampshire and Maine by more than Obama did in 2012 (6 and 15 points respectively). And especially notable as that was a 12-point lean to the left of the nation back then, mind you

[S019ian Liberal]

nevada votes right of the tipping point.

[MATTROSE94]

The 413 map for Joe Biden and a net gain of 20-30 seats for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, but a 51-49 Republican Senate due to ticket-splitting.

[S019ian Liberal]

nevada votes right of the tipping point.

and i'm stucking with this one.

[S019ian Liberal]

1. NC and FL vote different ways.
2. bullock carries MT sen by under 3 points but more than tester won by in 2018

Also: P.S. trump could totally still win the EC overall, while losing NC to biden

[S019ian Liberal]

Florida votes to the left of the tipping point.

[S019ian Liberal]

Biden comes closer to winning TX by >5 than Trump does to carrying the state.

[South Dakota Democrat]

1. NC and FL vote different ways.
2. bullock carries MT sen by under 3 points but more than tester won by in 2018

Also: P.S. trump could totally still win the EC overall, while losing NC to biden

No.

[Kuumo]

Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina vote within 1 percent of each other in terms of margin.

NE-02 votes more than 10 points to the left of ME-02.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The bold predicting in Nov, is that it will be bold for you not to predict a Biden slide. Trump did himself no good by having another superspreader pack rallies in the heart in WI in the Cold, yesterday, he may feel fine but the people that went to them are spreaders

Covid is a common cold and there isn't a cure for the virus

[S019ian Liberal]

Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina vote within 1 percent of each other in terms of margin.

NE-02 votes more than 10 points to the left of ME-02.

Is that really bold though? It was only 1 point away from happening in 2016 and trends will continue this year again too.

[S019ian Liberal]

NV votes to the left of NH and/or ME to the right of NH.

[Kuumo]

Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina vote within 1 percent of each other in terms of margin.

NE-02 votes more than 10 points to the left of ME-02.

Is that really bold though? It was only 1 point away from happening in 2016 and trends will continue this year again too.

Some people on Atlas seem to think that Biden will win Maine by double digits, and ME-02 will snap back somewhat from 2016. Among the "trends are usually real" group though, this is basically the consensus. I tried to pick things that I was confident would happen, which made it hard to get truly bold predictions, since my predictions tend to be near the Atlas median.

[S019ian Liberal]

Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina vote within 1 percent of each other in terms of margin.

NE-02 votes more than 10 points to the left of ME-02.

Is that really bold though? It was only 1 point away from happening in 2016 and trends will continue this year again too.

Some people on Atlas seem to think that Biden will win Maine by double digits, and ME-02 will snap back somewhat from 2016. Among the "trends are usually real" group though, this is basically the consensus. I tried to pick things that I was confident would happen, which made it hard to get truly bold predictions, since my predictions tend to be near the Atlas median.

Nice, and thank you for explaining!

I'm kind of the opposite -- going for things that are truly "bold" even if they only have like an 25% of happening, just because the rest of this forum thinks they're at say a 10% chance.

[S019ian Liberal]

413 map, sans florida.