Which Seat Are Senate Dems Likelier To Win In The 2020 GE, AL or KY?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kentucky. That is how doomed Jones is.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

KY, but they're both safe R.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

KY, but they're both safe R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

KY, but they're both safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither, Dems arent wasting $$$ anymore, as I stated before, on Senate races, that dont have valuable House race, MT Kathleen William's, IA JD Scholten and ME Golden

[SnowLabrador]

KY, but they're both safe R.

[MT Treasurer]

Alabama. Jones >>> McGrath, McConnell >>>>>> Tuberville, and Jones can at least build on his coalition from 2017 even if it’s a narrow path (McGrath isn’t going to be able to replicate Beshear's map).

[Mr. Smith]

AL...that's how entrenched McConnell is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent winning either of these since there arent any valuable House races in AL or KY, where there are in ME, MT and IA. Safe R

[Lechasseur]

Alabama

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky. However, both are lost causes. McConnell is always disliked and seen as vulnerable but he never comes close to losing. If a poll with Donald Trump doing worse than Mitt Romney in Kentucky shows him ahead of 'Generic Dem' then there's no way he loses.

Alabama. Jones >>> McGrath, McConnell >>>>>> Tuberville, and Jones can at least build on his coalition from 2017 even if it’s a narrow path (McGrath isn’t going to be able to replicate Beshear's map).

How is that even possible when this was the case in 2017:





Alabama routines votes about 25-30 points to the right of the country, this electorate that showed up in 2017 didn't even come close to replicating the usual electorate of Alabama, but somehow Jones can grow from his 2017 showing? Am I going insane or what's the logic behind this?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We finally agree that AL and KY are lost causes

[here2view]

Alabama. Democrats couldn't even beat Mitch in 2008. People in Kentucky may dislike him, but they always come home in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The question is will both Ernst and Collims both go down, the last polls on the ME and IA were tied races at 43 to 42.  AL and KY arent gonna make or break the Senate, beating CO 47, AZ 48, NC 49, ME 50, IA 51, both will determine a tie or a clear majority in the Senate:
This article says Ds arent thinking Ernst is an unbeatable titan any longer with a 37/43  approval

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/24/democrats-iowa-senate-ernst-greenfield-275141

[Xing]

AL, in the same way that Republicans are technically more likely to win NM than MA.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kentucky.

Amy McGrath has a better shot to win in the sense that she isn't an incumbent, in that Mitch McConnell's approval ratings are horrific, and I'm pretty sure they are worse than they were in 2008 or 2014.

I honestly don't think Doug Jones has a chance to even get within 15 points of beating Tuberville (or Sessions should the impossible happen), while McGrath could win (or at worst, lose by about 8-12.). She'll probably run for a different statewide office in 2023. (Maybe Secretary of State).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If it is not McGrath and that farmer guy as the Dem nominee, then KY would flip before AL. However if it is McGrath, then Jones has a better chance than her.