Arizona

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Do you know anything about politics?

Yes much more than you . Biden won't win AZ.

He, Ha, Ha, with a landslide loss for Trump, Biden can win UT. Romney will vote with Ds for DC statehood since UT as well as DC will get EC votes. Biden will win AZ and TX too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whites with college degrees are trending D, and the Hispanic population is growing.

Arizona is not a particularly educated state.  AZ actually has the lowest fraction of high school graduates of any state (only 82.1%), and the % of the population with bachelor's degrees or higher is only 28.4% (about the same as MO or MI).  

What Arizona does have is a young, booming Latino population but the White people who live there are actually a lot of older (and relatively) uneducated retirees.

But, the Rs havent made any substantial changes in SSA so that the solvency of SSA can be assured. Ronald Reagan lifted the cap on the rich, currently,  its capped at 150K, Dems will raise it to 225 K. That's why Reagan was a Barry Goldwater conservative and avoided impeachment from Iran contra, he was a compromiser, which Trump isnt a triangulater

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Do you know anything about politics?

Yes much more than you . Biden won't win AZ.

SN2903 doesn't realize Trump won three state only very narrowly and lost the popular vote, Trump didnt win a landslide.  AZ is a battleground state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump by 6 or something.

You think Arizona will swing to the right this November, 538? (Not being facetious!)

Yeah. AZ despite a good run by Democrats was still significantly to the right of the nation pretty much everywhere in 2018. Only if Biden wins by 5-7 points or so do I think he has a shot at winning the state which I obviously do not. My gut says the state will wildly buck expectations and go to Trump by a sizable margin for these reasons. I also think McSally will squeak by and win her senate race for much the same reason. Brad Parscale has also released convincing numbers here before.

McSally has been behind in every poll and Trump is moving on past McSally, down in every poll by 6 points to 12 like Trump has

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If 2 or more polls come out in support of your candidate,  then your candidate most likely ahead. The only poll that supports SN2903 position on Trump winning is the R Restoration poll that has PA within the margin of error and losing badly in WI and MI. While Rassy and Fox News have Trump down by 5.

Biden hasn't campaigned yet, and he needs to in AZ and PA, key battlegrounds, when he does, the polls will match with other polls. I expect Biden to win PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds dont need AZ to win the EC, but Kelly can win even if Trump win the state, just like Sinema did, when Ducey won.