Arizona

[Bomster]

Arizona is my homestate. It has consistently gone Republican in the past, in fact between 1948 and now the state had gone Democratic in a presidential election only once, in 1996. Arizona gave us Republicans like Barry Goldwater and John McCain. But since 2016 it seems the state is actually getting bluer. This was especially true in 2018, where Democrats won the majority of the popular vote in the house elections and Arizonans elected a Democratic senator (I was one of those arizonans). In fact if you were looking at the polls for Trump vs Biden and McSally vs Kelly without any context you'd assume that Arizona was atleast a lean Democrat state. What caused such a massive shift in the state? And is all of this real, or simply a mirage in the Sonora Desert?

[Tender Branson]

A lot of CA college students move into the state + Mexicans.

This changes everything.

[NOVA Green]

Although obviously this is just relatively recent, it appears that we started to initially see some massive changes within a key Republican Stronghold in the AZ CD-08 Special Election (Granted that there were earlier signs in certain places within Metro Phoenix within the '16 PRES GE results).

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6177883#msg6177883

[Ferguson97]

Whites with college degrees are trending D, and the Hispanic population is growing.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

You know, it's amazing how quickly Arizona is trending D compared to Virginia.

To answer the question it's a combination of many different factors, whites with college degrees trending D, suburbs moving away from Republicans and a growing Latino population. IIRC there's also liberals moving into the state from other areas as well.

[SN2903]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

[Bomster]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Then why is Biden leading there? If Biden was at 45 and Trump at like 40 it could be assumed that Trump would win, but no Biden is at 48-50%, higher than any Democrat recently. Even Hillary couldn’t stay this consistently high.

[YE]

Moving this to the trends board.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Then why is Biden leading there? If Biden was at 45 and Trump at like 40 it could be assumed that Trump would win, but no Biden is at 48-50%, higher than any Democrat recently. Even Hillary couldn’t stay this consistently high.

We need confirmation from a better pollster than Predictive Insights.

[Blair]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Senator Sinema disagrees!

[Nightcore Nationalist]

It'll be lean D by 2028.  The GOP must realize they need a path to victory that doesn't include Arizona (unless you have the perfect candidate for the SW).

[SN2903]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Senator Sinema disagrees!

She's way more moderate than Biden and Senate race isn't Presidential race.

[Non Swing Voter]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Senator Sinema disagrees!

She's way more moderate than Biden and Senate race isn't Presidential race.

This argument works for Governors not Senators.

[Grassroots]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Do you know anything about politics?

[YE]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Senator Sinema disagrees!

She's way more moderate than Biden and Senate race isn't Presidential race.

That didn’t stop Arizona from voting D in 3 other statewide races in 2018.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Senator Sinema disagrees!

She's way more moderate than Biden and Senate race isn't Presidential race.

Republicans in 2018: Sinema is a Green party lefty

Republicans in 2020: Sinema is a Manchin Democrat

Make up your minds already.

[538Electoral]

Trump by 6 or something.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump by 6 or something.

You think Arizona will swing to the right this November, 538? (Not being facetious!)

[SN2903]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Do you know anything about politics?

Yes much more than you . Biden won't win AZ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Do you know anything about politics?

Yes much more than you . Biden won't win AZ.

He, Ha, Ha, with a landslide loss for Trump, Biden can win UT. Romney will vote with Ds for DC statehood since UT as well as DC will get EC votes. Biden will win AZ and TX too.

[Del Tachi]

Whites with college degrees are trending D, and the Hispanic population is growing.

Arizona is not a particularly educated state.  AZ actually has the lowest fraction of high school graduates of any state (only 82.1%), and the % of the population with bachelor's degrees or higher is only 28.4% (about the same as MO or MI). 

What Arizona does have is a young, booming Latino population but the White people who live there are actually a lot of older (and relatively) uneducated retirees.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whites with college degrees are trending D, and the Hispanic population is growing.

Arizona is not a particularly educated state.  AZ actually has the lowest fraction of high school graduates of any state (only 82.1%), and the % of the population with bachelor's degrees or higher is only 28.4% (about the same as MO or MI).  

What Arizona does have is a young, booming Latino population but the White people who live there are actually a lot of older (and relatively) uneducated retirees.

But, the Rs havent made any substantial changes in SSA so that the solvency of SSA can be assured. Ronald Reagan lifted the cap on the rich, currently,  its capped at 150K, Dems will raise it to 225 K. That's why Reagan was a Barry Goldwater conservative and avoided impeachment from Iran contra, he was a compromiser, which Trump isnt a triangulater

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Do you know anything about politics?

Yes much more than you . Biden won't win AZ.

SN2903 doesn't realize Trump won three state only very narrowly and lost the popular vote, Trump didnt win a landslide.  AZ is a battleground state

[538Electoral]

Trump by 6 or something.

You think Arizona will swing to the right this November, 538? (Not being facetious!)

Yeah. AZ despite a good run by Democrats was still significantly to the right of the nation pretty much everywhere in 2018. Only if Biden wins by 5-7 points or so do I think he has a shot at winning the state which I obviously do not. My gut says the state will wildly buck expectations and go to Trump by a sizable margin for these reasons. I also think McSally will squeak by and win her senate race for much the same reason. Brad Parscale has also released convincing numbers here before.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump by 6 or something.

You think Arizona will swing to the right this November, 538? (Not being facetious!)

Yeah. AZ despite a good run by Democrats was still significantly to the right of the nation pretty much everywhere in 2018. Only if Biden wins by 5-7 points or so do I think he has a shot at winning the state which I obviously do not. My gut says the state will wildly buck expectations and go to Trump by a sizable margin for these reasons. I also think McSally will squeak by and win her senate race for much the same reason. Brad Parscale has also released convincing numbers here before.

McSally has been behind in every poll and Trump is moving on past McSally, down in every poll by 6 points to 12 like Trump has