Libertarian Presidential nomination (5/21-5/24)

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The LNC has been moved to July, except the Presidential nomination, which is starting today! Tokens will be gathered for balloting and the debate.

Schedule:

• Presidential debate 5/21 at 8PM ET, moderated by John Stossel
• Vice-Presidential debate 5/21 at 9:45PM ET, moderated by Jim Turney
• Agenda 5/22 at 6PM ET
• Presidential nomination 5/23 at 11AM ET
• Vice-Presidential nomination 5/24 at 11AM ET

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2016 had 5 candidates in the LNC debate, but this year there are at least 6 "major" candidates (Jorgensen, Hornberger, Gray, Supreme, Kokesh, Monds...), so it will be interesting to see who is in the debate. We should know around 5PM ET, when tokens are due.

The favorite for the nomination according to delegate polls is currently Jorgensen, who polled 21 points (!) ahead of Hornberger in a head-to-head. But debate performances have changed things radically in the past, like in 2004, and Jorgensen isn't the strongest debater.

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Apparently they're capping debate participation to 5 and announcing the results soon, so we're about to find out whose campaign gets effectively killed due to failure to acquire debate tokens. Maybe Monds?

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Presidential debate tokens:

Jacob Hornberger 224

Jo Jorgensen 189

John Monds 113

Jim Gray 109

Vermin Supreme 100

VP debate tokens:

Larry Sharpe 335

Spike Cohen 247

Ken Armstrong 161

John McAfee 26

John Monds 24

Not sure why Monds is in both places. RIP Kokesh campaign?

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It's tough for any candidate to have a breakthrough performance in an online debate like this. I guess Hornberger is winning, but not by enough to get the large 1st ballot lead he will need to take the nomination?

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Nevermind, Vermin lit a joint. This is an LP debate, so he wins.

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What % of the NPV will the Hornberger get if he's the nominee? I can't imagine he'll get anywhere close to Johnson's numbers.

He'd be a failure if he can't get the 4th best result ever for the LP (over 0.50%) and a success if he gets the 2nd best ever (over 1.06%).

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I thought McAfee and Monds were going to be in this?

Supposedly there was also a token threshold that they needed but missed. So it's just 3 guys for the VP debate.

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My money is still on Doctor of Science Jo "I'm a scientist" Jorgensen, who is a scientist and needs evidence like in science.

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A quick summary of pitches from the top candidates:

Jorgensen: I'm a scientist

Supreme: I'm a meme

Gray: I have the best running mate

Hornberger: Lee Harvey Oswald was framed

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Great LP debate moments of the past 2 Presidential elections:





And now:

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These candidates get to be in the nomination process:

Hornberger 218
Jorgensen 193
Supreme 103
Monds 95
Gray 89
Kokesh 58

Vohra a close miss (27). Amash nearly makes it too despite not seeking the nomination.

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I don't agree with Sharpe's politics however he ran a fine campaign for NY governor 2 years ago has a firm commitment to his beliefs and would be a great vice presidential nominee.

Sharpe recently said:

I’ve had a few LP delegates reach out to me today for clarity: I do NOT believe that the other LP Presidential Candidates actually want me and my plan. NONE have indicated so to me. And NO caucuses have endorsed me or my plan. ONLY Judge Jim Gray has embraced both me and my plan. Accordingly, it doesn’t make sense for me to run for VP if the Judge doesn’t become our nominee. We won’t message and campaign effectively and we won’t be able raise money or make the impact that I believe is necessary. I hope that is clear. I will still be with the party either way. Thank you all for your support.

So Jorgensen/Sharpe or Hornberger/Sharpe or whatever is unlikely, even though Sharpe is way out in front in the VP race. Which is kind of funny, because in 2016, Sharpe was well known as the "I'll run with anybody lol" candidate.

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This is a mess.

Can't wait to see who wins it.

You're also probably going to see a few independent campaigns from this, because it doesn't seem like the process is being respected and treated like a real convention.

Good call. Behrman:

I did not make the ballot for the LP POTUS Nomination. I am changing my campaign affiliation to independent and will continue this race until the general election. I endorse Vermin Supreme for President for the Libertarian nomination as worthy opponents in the general election.

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2 more names to keep an eye on for VP are Monds and Sarwark.

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Kokesh, Monds, or Supreme; or I'm voting for Trump.

Anyone else have any favorites?

I'm all in supporting Gray's rapidly dying campaign.

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Hornberger endorses Spike Cohen for VP.

But of course Spike had endorsed Vermin. Weird dynamic.

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Gary Johnson makes a surprise (pre-recorded) appearance to place Gray's name into nomination.

Not a surprise, Gray has been touting the GJ doobie of approval since Amash dropped out and GJ stopped being unable to decide between Amash and Gray.

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Someone who understands the Libertarian Party, why is Hornberger so divisive internally?

He's always attacking everybody for not being enough of his type of Libertarian. He published a series of articles attacking Justin Amash when Amash joined the LP, for example. He also used to attack Harry Browne a lot when he was our guy, which is a big reason he doesn't mesh with Jorgensen (Browne's running mate once) even though their platforms are very similar.

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Hey everyone, I'm back from a pizza break. How much did my man Judge Gray win round 1 by?

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Jo has a narrow lead but most of Kokesh's support will probably go Hornberger or Vermin since he's the  most radical candidate. Then Gray's supporters will probably go Jo and the winner will be determined by where the supporters of Monds and Vermin go, which isn't quite as obvious.

My guess is that Jo will narrowly beat out Hornberger in the last round.

I'm going to guess that hardly anybody transfers many delegates to Hornberger, including Kokesh. Hornberger needed a big 1st round lead but came out in 2nd. The only question is if he even has enough support to make the final round at all (where he would get destroyed if facing Jorgensen).

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Republican Party: Vote for Don
Constitution Party: Vote for Don

Democratic Party: Vote for Joe
Libertarian Party: Vote for Jo

Green Party: vOtE fOr HoWiE

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John Monds eliminated in Round 3.

He definitely has a future in LP politics.

He was already well known for his solid performance in the 2010 GA Gov race. He would be good for the VP slot.

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Why am I watching this? Why am I watching this shtshow?

Because in your heart, you know we're right.

Or maybe you just wanna have a doob with Verm

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Congrats Jo Jorgensen. Please become more interesting.

Why are people pulling for Armstrong for VP? What's so great about him?

Oh, it's his voice. Ohhhhh mannn that vooooiiiice.