Libertarian Presidential nomination (5/21-5/24)

[brucejoel99]

• Presidential debate 5/21 at 8PM ET, moderated by John Stossel

Will his mustache be attending as well?

[brucejoel99]

Stossel was an excellent moderator & pushed back when candidates weren't giving clear answers. Most of these candidates haven't faced any challenges to their positions & tonight was a good way to expose those who are only interested in pure dogma & have no plans.

There honestly wasn't really a clear winner. It was a bad showing from everybody. I've seen pretty much all of them give better performances than this. Everybody had a poor moment or two. I think Hornberger's continued ridiculous mudslinging & his unwillingness to answer direct questions made him the clear loser though. Seriously, why does he feel the need to constantly attack other candidates? It's such a sh*tty strategy for somebody trying to win a presidential nomination. He has probably lost any chance of getting the nomination at this point.

[brucejoel99]

Could Sharpe become VP regardless of who wins? He seems like the strongest candidate on either ticket (except Supreme ofc)

If Gray is (somehow) nominated, then it'll be Sharpe no question. If Gray isn't nominated, then it seems like Sharpe will bow out, at which point it's probably a tossup between Spike Cohen & Ken Armstrong.

[brucejoel99]

The technical difficulties, the awkward pauses, the ridiculous requests from delegates, this whole thing is cringey and embarrassing.

Jorgensen is like generic L but she reminds me of Amy Klobuchar with regards to her (lack of) charisma. She will not be a remarkable candidate, but Horberger is not only unremarkable but also unnecessarily divisive.

Yeah, I couldn't imagine having to do Sarwark's job for 15 mins. Christ, some of these delegates have been insufferable.

And yeah, is it really that difficult for the Libertarian Party to match their video streaming quality to that of a teenager on Twitch? Seriously, this is pathetic quality.

[brucejoel99]

The possibilities appear to be:

Kokesh/Sharpe

Kokesh has endorsed Sharpe to be the VP nominee but I can't see Sharpe actually agreeing to be Kokesh's running mate.

[brucejoel99]

Gary Johnson makes a surprise (pre-recorded) appearance to place Gray's name into nomination.

[brucejoel99]

Gary Johnson makes a surprise (pre-recorded) appearance to place Gray's name into nomination.

Not a surprise, Gray has been touting the GJ doobie of approval since Amash dropped out and GJ stopped being unable to decide between Amash and Gray.

Johnson's endorsement was no surprise, of course, as it had already happened, but this appearance in & of itself wasn't previously announced.

[brucejoel99]

The Gov. Johnson endorsement breathes a little bit of hope into Gray's campaign.

This is going to be an interesting night.

Eh, not really. The endorsement has been well-known for a little while now, so I wouldn't expect it to somehow magically resuscitate Gray's campaign considering it already looked dead even post-endorsement.

[brucejoel99]

Is the nominee being decided today?

More likely sometime late into the night if/when this (as expected) ends up having to go to 6 or 7 ballots, but yes.

[brucejoel99]

If the Libertarian Party wants to ever be taken seriously, they cannot nominate Vermin Supreme.

If the Libertarian Party wanted to ever be taken seriously again they wouldn't have this sh!tty of a convention

I gave the streaming quality sh*t too, but to be fair to the LP itself, it's not like being forced to hold a virtual convention was really up to them.

[brucejoel99]

Jorgensen surging on PredictIt, 77 cents yes. Sharpe leading for veep at 61 cents. Kinda stupid since they have Gray at 3 cents for prez but hey, the PredictIt brainiacs are above me.

Perhaps Jorgensen turns out to be the one non-Gray candidate that Sharpe would agree to serve as a running mate for?

[brucejoel99]

Vermin Supreme: "We are a young party."

Libertarian Party: *literally turning 50 next year*

[brucejoel99]

Nominating speeches have now been completed. The first ballot will now be held, & Sarwark expects its completion by 4:50pm Eastern Time.

[brucejoel99]

How do you guys see this going?

Hornberger ~280
Jorgensen ~240
Monds ~140
Gray ~135
Supreme ~130
Kokesh ~70
Scattered ~50

Hornberger ~280
Jorgensen ~260
Gray ~165
Supreme ~155
Monds ~140

Hornberger ~330
Jorgensen ~325
Gray ~180
Supreme ~170

Jorgensen ~425
Hornberger ~365
Gray ~225

Jorgensen ~625
Hornberger ~390

[brucejoel99]

First ballot totals before we move on

Not the first ballot. IIRC these were the token totals with regards to which candidates could be validly entered into nomination.

Someone who understands the Libertarian Party, why is Hornberger so divisive internally?

Constant & ridiculous mudslinging & attacks toward the other candidates.

[brucejoel99]

In the meantime, a motion to allow eliminated candidates 2 minutes for concession speeches if they choose to use it will now be voted on.

[brucejoel99]

The final state whose results are being waited on - VA - has finally submitted them (apparently, they submitted it earlier but had done so to the wrong email & so their results were overlooked), so the first ballot's results will be with us shortly.

The yeas on allowing concession speeches are 476, the nays are 352, & there are 17 abstentions. As such, concession speeches will be allowed & will take place after a given round's results are reported. Only nominated candidates will be allowed to give a concession speech (i.e., no write-ins).

And I'll believe Sarwark's promise that "future votes will go faster than the existing vote" when I see it.

[brucejoel99]

Finally, the results!

TX (still technically the 'host' state) will be first, followed by the states + DC alphabetically (UT, VT, etc., & all the way back around to TN).

Here we go!

[brucejoel99]

TX: (see above)

UT:
Hornberger - 1
Supreme - 3
Jorgensen - 5

[brucejoel99]

VT:
Hornberger - 3

[brucejoel99]

VA: (temporarily skipped on account of technical difficulties)

WA: (see above)

WV:
Gray - 2
Monds - 2
Supreme - 2

[brucejoel99]

WI (whose delegation chair sounds just like Rachel Dratch ngl):
Jorgensen - 8
Hornberger - 7
Supreme - 2
Monds - 1
Gray - 1
NOTA - 1

WY:
Gray - 3
Jorgensen - 1

[brucejoel99]

VA:
Jorgensen - 10 + 1 write-in
Hornberger - 5
Gray - 3
Kokesh - 1
Monds - 6
Supreme - 2
? (write-in) - 1
Amash (write-in) - 1
Edward Snowden (write-in) - 1
NOTA - 0

AL:
Jorgensen - 8
Hornberger - 3
Monds - 1
Supreme - 1

AK:
Monds - 3
Hornberger - 1
Kokesh - 1
Supreme - 1

[brucejoel99]

AZ:
Supreme - 6
Jorgensen - 5
Hornberger - 5
Kokesh - 4
NOTA - 2
Monds - 1
Amash (write-in) - 1

AR:
Hornberger - 4
Supreme - 1
Monds - 1
John Stossel (write-in) - 1

[brucejoel99]

CA:
Hornberger - 28
Jorgensen - 23
Kokesh - 18
Supreme - 14
Gray - 11
Monds - 3
Amash (write-in) - 3
Vohra - 2
?? - 1
NOTA - 0
Did not vote - 4

CO:
Supreme - 8
Hornberger - 6
Jorgensen - 5
Monds - 5
Sarwark (write-in) - 4
Kokesh - 3
Gray - 1
Vohra - 1