MI (Change Research) Biden +3

[Ferguson97]

Change is trash, but this is quite interesting - Biden's margins grow a good amount when you add Klobuchar, or especially Harris into the mix as VP:

H2H:

Biden 49 - Trump 46

Biden/Whitmer 49 - Trump/Pence 47

Biden/Abrams 46 - Trump/Pence 48

Biden/Klobuchar 50 - Trump/Pence 45

Bden/Warren 47 - Trump/Pence 47

Biden/Harris 51 - Trump/Pence 43

Whitmer doing so poorly in her home state is surprising. It looks like she would not be a good VP pick. Harris doing so well is also surprising.

That said, I doubt the VP choice matters as much as this poll suggests it does.

No it's not Whitmer is not popular here.

She's popular according to these polls. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/20/republican-men-views-coronavirus/5227671002/

[Ferguson97]

Change is trash, but this is quite interesting - Biden's margins grow a good amount when you add Klobuchar, or especially Harris into the mix as VP:

H2H:

Biden 49 - Trump 46

Biden/Whitmer 49 - Trump/Pence 47

Biden/Abrams 46 - Trump/Pence 48

Biden/Klobuchar 50 - Trump/Pence 45

Bden/Warren 47 - Trump/Pence 47

Biden/Harris 51 - Trump/Pence 43

Whitmer doing so poorly in her home state is surprising. It looks like she would not be a good VP pick. Harris doing so well is also surprising.

That said, I doubt the VP choice matters as much as this poll suggests it does.

No it's not Whitmer is not popular here.

She's popular according to these polls. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/20/republican-men-views-coronavirus/5227671002/

That poll is not credible. No way in hell her disapproval is not higher than 40.Trust me I live here she is not popular. Everyone wants the gyms open. Also if you compare her #s to Cuomo, Dewine or almost any other governor they are lower. She will not be re-elected. 1 termer

People in YOUR conservative circle don't like her.

[Ferguson97]

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.

2018 was a fluke.

What are you basing this on? Michigan has been Democratic for YEARS up until 2016.

If anything, 2016 was a fluke.

[Ferguson97]

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.

2018 was a fluke.

What are you basing this on? Michigan has been Democratic for YEARS up until 2016.

If anything, 2016 was a fluke.

Snyder won governor in 2010 and 2014.

Major Republican wave years.

Also, state elections work differently than federal elections.

New Jersey elected a Republican governor in 2009 and 2013.

Louisiana elected a Democratic governor in 2015 and 2019.

Neither of those states are going to flip in a presidential election.