Change Research - Biden + 3

[Annatar]

Change Research has come out with a new set of polls, their national poll consists of 1,424 LV's, conducted May 15-17, Biden leads Trump 48-45.

https://1de9b613-f5ea-469f-bbea-e129fedcca0d.usrfiles.com/ugd/1de9b6_2c7f52f9aeb1454691efcd8186cbda47.pdf

They also conducted a battleground voter survey, I don't personally think such surveys of several states mean much which consisted of 5,408 LV's across WI, MI, PA, AZ, NC, & Fl conducted May 15- 17, they found Trump leading Biden 48-46.

https://1de9b613-f5ea-469f-bbea-e129fedcca0d.usrfiles.com/ugd/1de9b6_1da588e147d142ae81373bb7ee7ae131.pdf

Their previous national poll done May 1-3 had Biden leading Trump 47-44, so the margin is the same, although both candidates are up 1%.

[Bidenworth2020]

Can we agree not to post Change Research polls?

[Annatar]

Can we agree not to post Change Research polls?

RCP posts them, I only look at polls that RCP uses as well.

[DaleCooper]

I'm really hoping that these "battleground states" polls don't become the new normal this year.

[Bidenworth2020]

Can we agree not to post Change Research polls?

RCP posts them, I only look at polls that RCP uses as well.

Huh, maybe they aren't total trash then. OTOH, it's RCP.

[BudgieForce]

Approval ratings:

Trump at 35% strongly approve, 9% somewhat approve, 2% neutral, 2% somewhat unfavorable, 51% very unfavorable

Biden at 19% strongly approve, 17% somewhat approve, 10% neutral, 9% somewhat unfavorable, 44% very unfavorable

So...

1). Are the polls meaningful if 10% of people have no opinion of Biden? It leads me to think that a lot of people haven’t started thinking about the election: they haven’t looked at Biden hard yet to formulate an opinion about him. I doubt he will have 10% no-opinion on Election Day.

2). The favorables show Trump has more intense supporters and more intense haters, as Biden has fewer people who “strongly approve” or “strongly disapprove.” But overall, 52% say they don’t like Biden compared to 51% for Trump. And Trump has 44% support while Biden has just 36%. So they’ve got roughly the same amount of haters, but Biden has 8% less of approval. Biden may be in a tougher spot.

Respectfully, Change Research has some of the worst favorbles for Biden out of any pollster other than Civiqs. I wouldnt read too much into them. CNN and Monmouth, for example, have significantly better numbers for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Change Research is also the ones that found Trump +3 in the "battleground" states back in early May:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=372353.0

They've also been finding Biden +3 nationally for a while too, despite their wildly insane favorable #s. The only polls that have shown Biden with such bad favorables have been Change, and oddly that one Civiqs national poll, even though Civiqs is generally a good pollster.

[wbrocks67]

Approval ratings:

Trump at 35% strongly approve, 9% somewhat approve, 2% neutral, 2% somewhat unfavorable, 51% very unfavorable

Biden at 19% strongly approve, 17% somewhat approve, 10% neutral, 9% somewhat unfavorable, 44% very unfavorable

So...

1). Are the polls meaningful if 10% of people have no opinion of Biden? It leads me to think that a lot of people haven’t started thinking about the election: they haven’t looked at Biden hard yet to formulate an opinion about him. I doubt he will have 10% no-opinion on Election Day.

2). The favorables show Trump has more intense supporters and more intense haters, as Biden has fewer people who “strongly approve” or “strongly disapprove.” But overall, 52% say they don’t like Biden compared to 51% for Trump. And Trump has 44% support while Biden has just 36%. So they’ve got roughly the same amount of haters, but Biden has 8% less of approval. Biden may be in a tougher spot.

Respectfully, Change Research has some of the worst favorbles for Biden out of any pollster other than Civiqs. I wouldnt read too much into them. CNN and Monmouth, for example, have significantly better numbers for Biden.

Morning Consult also today had Biden at -4, which was on par with what CNN and Monmouth showed

[wbrocks67]

The battleground survey has Trump's approval at 50/50 and a "41% strongly approve" which we've never seen *anywhere*. Pure junk.