Rate Montana for Senate

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bullock +2

[zoz]

Daines +5 at least. I don't see this one being as competitive as many people think

[Heir of Camelot]

Daines +5 at least. I don't see this one being as competitive as many people think

Even Kathleen Williams the Librarian Cat Lady did better than that. Bullock gets ticket splitters like no candidate I've ever seen.

[DINGO Joe]

Daines +5 at least. I don't see this one being as competitive as many people think

Bollocks!

[MT Treasurer]

Bullock outraised Daines in the first half of the second quarter:

Bullock raised about $2.4 million in the first half of the second quarter and has about $4.1 million in the bank, according to his campaign’s latest filing with the Federal Election Commission.

Daines raised $1.3 million and has a war chest of $5.8 million.

Also:

The top Senate GOP super PAC announced this week it is reserving over $10 million in airtime in Montana to boost Daines, a sign Republicans view the race as competitive.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499224-bullock-outraises-daines-in-montana-senate-race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock wins, Daines has lost in every poll

[windjammer]

It's a toss up race!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact Cooney is keeping the race tied doesn't bode well for Daines. Without Bullock, this was an R turnover as a Gov race. Now, that Bullock is in, the Ds are gonna win both races

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think partisanship will win out and Daines will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't need MT, but Ds would like to win AK, GA, IA, KS and MT to get to 51 seats to avoid a tied Senate. A tied Senate will still be bad, due to power sharing agreement in 2000, when Cheney broke the tie for Rs. The minority win still have equal powers with the majority to get nominations and Bill's to floor. Given Mcconnell's obstruction to UBI Benefits, it would be bad

Greenfield,  since being endorsed by Warren is tied with Ernst and Ossoff is leading Perdue and can win a runoff and Kobach maybe nominee for Rs in Senate

[MT Treasurer]

It's a toss up race!

I agree. I think this is going to be one of the last Senate races called (maybe even the last race with the exception of the GA seat/-s), so we can prepare for an all-nighter even if the presidential race is called early.

The earliest indicator of who is winning the race will be (as always) the Republican margin in Yellowstone County (Billings area + outskirts). If it’s as close as it was in 2018-SEN or closer, Daines can start packing his bags. If Bullock’s winning it, the race is beyond over.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate will be far from.done, the Senate races in GA, and MA may have special elections. If Rs think that there will.be a tie in the Senate, it's not accurate, GA special can help determine control as well if there is no wave. If it's a wave, then it's a forgone conclusion,  of a D majority.

[MT Treasurer]

I know Atlas already offers plenty of it, but if anyone is eager to absorb even more sophisticated Montana "analysis", here you go. In today's riveting episode of Understanding the Nuances of Montana Politics, "Campaigns with Craig" objectively, carefully, and elaborately analyzes the Montana Senate race and graciously lets us in on the reasons why the idea of Steve Bullock standing a chance in MT-SEN 2020 is... "Bollocks" (how original!). Charlie Cook's heir, folks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJH_fk3cS-U

The real gems start at 9:00, you can skip the other parts. 99% sure he’s an Atlas poster.

[Del Tachi]

Daines +8
Trump +16

[KaiserDave]

I know Atlas already offers plenty of it, but if anyone is eager to absorb even more sophisticated Montana "analysis", here you go. In today's riveting episode of Understanding the Nuances of Montana Politics, "Campaigns with Craig" objectively, carefully, and elaborately analyzes the Montana Senate race and graciously lets us in on the reasons why the idea of Steve Bullock standing a chance in MT-SEN 2020 is... "Bollocks" (how original!). Charlie Cook's heir, folks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJH_fk3cS-U

The real gems start at 9:00, you can skip the other parts. 99% sure he’s an Atlas poster.

He sounds like Atlas posts sent through a wood chipper and spewed out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daines +8
Trump +16

YEAH Sure, and the last poll had Bulock up by 7, have the Rs learned anything from the McSally race, yet, that red states like IA, AZ, MT and KS can become blue again. 2008 and 2012 we saw that shift in realignment during another Recession

[Mexican Wolf]

I'm really hoping it's Bullock, but I have a feeling Daines is going to narrowly survive somehow. Daines+3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm really hoping it's Bullock, but I have a feeling Daines is going to narrowly survive somehow. Daines+3.

Not in a coronovirus environment,  you have to be bold, just like Ds were bold Iin 2006 and took Va away from Rs, the same thing can happen to Daines in 2020

[Mexican Wolf]

I'm really hoping it's Bullock, but I have a feeling Daines is going to narrowly survive somehow. Daines+3.

Not in a coronovirus environment,  you have to be bold, just like Ds were bold Iin 2006 and took Va away from Rs, the same thing can happen to Daines in 2020

I agree; the Dems should pursue Montana aggressively either way, and I do want Bullock and Cooney or Williams to win. But I'm not sure if Bullock's strength as a candidate, the coronavirus, and the economic troubles will be enough to overcome Montana's Republican lean in a presidential year. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook is has put both IA and MT from solid R to lean R column after ME, NC, AZ and CO

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think partisanship will win out and Daines will win.

Montana is not THAT Republican of a State.  It has elected far more Democrats than Republicans to the Senate over a LONG period of time, and the Republicans it has elected have been nowhere near as significant electoral figures as its Democrats have been.

Montana is a state that still runs on the pre-1994 model of all politics being local.  Their Senate and Congressional races are more localized.  Then, too, Greg Gianforte may well be the Gubenatorial candidate, and he's a jerk who actually did punch out a reporter.  He's never won big, and I'm not convinced he'll win.  Montana may elect downballot Democrats even as it goes for Trump nationally.

[Lognog]

I know Atlas already offers plenty of it, but if anyone is eager to absorb even more sophisticated Montana "analysis", here you go. In today's riveting episode of Understanding the Nuances of Montana Politics, "Campaigns with Craig" objectively, carefully, and elaborately analyzes the Montana Senate race and graciously lets us in on the reasons why the idea of Steve Bullock standing a chance in MT-SEN 2020 is... "Bollocks" (how original!). Charlie Cook's heir, folks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJH_fk3cS-U

The real gems start at 9:00, you can skip the other parts. 99% sure he’s an Atlas poster.

He sounds like Atlas posts sent through a wood chipper and spewed out.

This is really let's talk elections tier analysis

In the comments someone says Bullock is the Bredesen of this cycle and the guy actually agree with him.

[MT Treasurer]

^Yeah, "Bullock is the next Bredesen" is a popular hot take on YouTube/Twitter/PredictIt/etc. (and even on this forum to some extent). It’s baffling that anyone would be clueless enough to make such a comparison, but I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bollier and Bullock have had the most aggressive campaign fundraising just like Kelly and Hickenlooper,  Daines has not been seen in front of cameras like Bullock and many people dont know whom he is, only Rs. Rs can beat Coone and win the House race, but Bullock, Bollier, Kelly and Hickenlooper are far from done.

[Brittain33]

Daines +8

Both campaigns' internal polling shows Bullock up by single digits, you know. It's not a coincidence that Bullock declared for the race immediately after it was clear Biden and not Sanders had the nomination.