Tennessee (East TN State): Trump +17

[wbrocks67]

Trump 53
Biden 36

https://www.etsu.edu/cas/sociology/asrl/documents/tnpoll5_bannertablespr2.pdf

Similar to the Trump +16 margin Mason-Dixon found in January.

Trump won TN by 26% in 2016. This result would be closer to Romney (+20) and McCain (+15)'s margins

[Roblox]

Candidates tend to over-perform the polls in safe states, and I would expect the same here, especially considering how polls out of Appalachia underestimate republicans. Most of those undecideds will probably go for Trump.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"Would you like to see Sen. Lamar replaced by a Republican, a Democrat, or does the party of the candidate not matter to you?"

R 43%
D 26%
Doesn't matter 26%
Unsure 5%

[The Mikado]

Candidates tend to over-perform the polls in safe states, and I would expect the same here, especially considering how polls out of Appalachia underestimate republicans. Most of those undecideds will probably go for Trump.

While this is true to some extent, the 2016 result there was Trump 61, Clinton 35. This poll has Biden already at 36 even with 11% undecided. Quite possible that Biden ends up in the upper 30s here and that the state SLIGHTLY swings D. Biden's a less terrible fit for this part of the country than Hillary Clinton is. (I'm not saying much, but TN might be Trump by 22 or 23 rather than Trump by 26, and that this poll would back that up)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mackler never had a chance

[psychprofessor]

ooof this was close to +30 for Trump in 2016.

[Person Man]

ooof this was close to +30 for Trump in 2016.

I am pretty sure  just about everyone who is uncertain will still vote for Trump.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

TN's tradition of moderate Republican Senators seems to be over for good. Sad!

[Dumbo]

ooof this was close to +30 for Trump in 2016.

I am pretty sure  just about everyone who is uncertain will still vote for Trump.

but how many of the now uncertain will actually vote in the election?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Remember that Tennessee polling always tends to underestimate Republicans.

Final RCP Averages:

2016-PRES: Trump +11 (reality: +26)
2018-SEN: Blackburn +5 (reality: +11)
2018-GOV: Lee +14 (reality: +21)

Kind of odd age gap here too:
18-34: Trump +17
35-54: Trump +30
55+: Trump +7

Also, it has Trump ahead by 4 with people who are not white or black, which seems surprising.

[Progressive Pessimist]

*Yawn*

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee has its own regional divide, one which seems to have lasted from just before the Civil War. When Tennessee had a referendum on whether to secede from the Union and join the Confederacy, eastern Tennessee voters voted strongly to remain with the Union, but western Tennessee (which had the plantations and slaves) voted to secede. The vote was close statewide, and that election would prove a Pyrrhic victory for slavery and secession. Western Tennessee would be among the first areas of the Confederacy to be liberated by Union forces, and eastern Tennessee would serve as a staging ground for what I consider the death blow to the Confederacy -- the severing of the "middle South" (Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and southern Georgia) from the more notheasterly part of the Confederacy (Virginia, northeastern Georgia, and North and South Carolina) while taking away the large foundries of the Chattanooga area.

Western Tennessee, which contains Memphis and many descendants of slaves for which the Confederacy fought to keep in bondage, is actually pro-Biden (Biden leading 45-40 there). Central Tennessee is almost even at 41-37 for Trump. Eastern Tennessee, containing Knoxville and Chattanooga, is 61-26 for Trump. Now you know.  

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee has its own regional divide, one which seems to have lasted from just before the Civil War. When Tennessee had a referendum on whether to secede from the Union and join the Confederacy, eastern Tennessee voters voted strongly to remain with the Union, but western Tennessee (which had the plantations and slaves) voted to secede. The vote was close statewide, and that election would prove a Pyrrhic victory for slavery and secession. Western Tennessee would be among the first areas of the Confederacy to be liberated by Union forces, and eastern Tennessee would serve as a staging ground for what I consider the death blow to the Confederacy -- the severing of the "middle South" (Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and southern Georgia) from the more notheasterly part of the Confederacy (Virginia, northeastern Georgia, and North and South Carolina) while taking away the large foundries of the Chattanooga area.

Western Tennessee, which contains Memphis and many descendants of slaves for which the Confederacy fought to keep in bondage, is actually pro-Biden (Biden leading 45-40 there). Central Tennessee is almost even at 41-37 for Trump. Eastern Tennessee, containing Knoxville and Chattanooga, is 61-26 for Trump. Now you know.  

I don't see where you are getting those numbers.  I see the following in the crosstabs:

West Tennessee: 44-42 Biden
Middle Tennessee: 49-39 Trump
East Tennessee: 65-27 Trump

2012-16 Results from DRA:
West Tennessee: 51-49 Democrat (IIRC, it would be an Obama-Trump state)
Middle Tennessee: 62-38 Republican
East Tennessee: 71-29 Republican

[Badger]

Tennessee has its own regional divide, one which seems to have lasted from just before the Civil War. When Tennessee had a referendum on whether to secede from the Union and join the Confederacy, eastern Tennessee voters voted strongly to remain with the Union, but western Tennessee (which had the plantations and slaves) voted to secede. The vote was close statewide, and that election would prove a Pyrrhic victory for slavery and secession. Western Tennessee would be among the first areas of the Confederacy to be liberated by Union forces, and eastern Tennessee would serve as a staging ground for what I consider the death blow to the Confederacy -- the severing of the "middle South" (Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and southern Georgia) from the more notheasterly part of the Confederacy (Virginia, northeastern Georgia, and North and South Carolina) while taking away the large foundries of the Chattanooga area.

Western Tennessee, which contains Memphis and many descendants of slaves for which the Confederacy fought to keep in bondage, is actually pro-Biden (Biden leading 45-40 there). Central Tennessee is almost even at 41-37 for Trump. Eastern Tennessee, containing Knoxville and Chattanooga, is 61-26 for Trump. Now you know.  

I don't see where you are getting those numbers.  I see the following in the crosstabs:

West Tennessee: 44-42 Biden
Middle Tennessee: 49-39 Trump
East Tennessee: 65-27 Trump

2012-16 Results from DRA:
West Tennessee: 51-49 Democrat (IIRC, it would be an Obama-Trump state)
Middle Tennessee: 62-38 Republican
East Tennessee: 71-29 Republican

What do they Define is East Tennessee? Surely it doesn't include Nashville? I ask because they're only a couple relatively sparsely populated red counties outside of Shelby, and I can't imagine Shelby County doing enough to tilt that entire third of the state.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee has its own regional divide, one which seems to have lasted from just before the Civil War. When Tennessee had a referendum on whether to secede from the Union and join the Confederacy, eastern Tennessee voters voted strongly to remain with the Union, but western Tennessee (which had the plantations and slaves) voted to secede. The vote was close statewide, and that election would prove a Pyrrhic victory for slavery and secession. Western Tennessee would be among the first areas of the Confederacy to be liberated by Union forces, and eastern Tennessee would serve as a staging ground for what I consider the death blow to the Confederacy -- the severing of the "middle South" (Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and southern Georgia) from the more notheasterly part of the Confederacy (Virginia, northeastern Georgia, and North and South Carolina) while taking away the large foundries of the Chattanooga area.

Western Tennessee, which contains Memphis and many descendants of slaves for which the Confederacy fought to keep in bondage, is actually pro-Biden (Biden leading 45-40 there). Central Tennessee is almost even at 41-37 for Trump. Eastern Tennessee, containing Knoxville and Chattanooga, is 61-26 for Trump. Now you know.  

I don't see where you are getting those numbers.  I see the following in the crosstabs:

West Tennessee: 44-42 Biden
Middle Tennessee: 49-39 Trump
East Tennessee: 65-27 Trump

2012-16 Results from DRA:
West Tennessee: 51-49 Democrat (IIRC, it would be an Obama-Trump state)
Middle Tennessee: 62-38 Republican
East Tennessee: 71-29 Republican

What do they Define is East Tennessee? Surely it doesn't include Nashville? I ask because they're only a couple relatively sparsely populated red counties outside of Shelby, and I can't imagine Shelby County doing enough to tilt that entire third of the state.

Believe it or not, it is enough to tilt the region.  West Tennessee is basically considered everything west of the Tennessee River.  It is by far the smallest of the three Grand Divisions, both by population and area.

Nashville is in Middle Tennessee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Divisions_of_Tennessee

[Adam Griffin]

What do they Define is East Tennessee? Surely it doesn't include Nashville? I ask because they're only a couple relatively sparsely populated red counties outside of Shelby, and I can't imagine Shelby County doing enough to tilt that entire third of the state.

Shelby is 60% of the population of West Tennessee (58% of 2016 vote), and the second-largest county (Madison; another 6% of the region & 7% of '16 vote) is generally somewhat close; Trump won Madison by 15.

At any rate, Trump won West TN with a plurality (48.9-47.8).

Clinton won Shelby & Madison combined by 23 points (60-37), while Trump won the remainder by 46 points (72-26).

So basically: Shelby/Madison are twice the size of the rest of the region, but the rest of the region voted twice as strongly for Trump as the former did for Clinton, so they (almost) cancel out each other.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why poll a TN race if you wont poll the Senate R primary and GE? We need more polls like WVA, MT, KS R primary and ME.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When Tennessee was created as a state by Congress, its southern border was designated to be the 35th parallel of latitude.  However, when the border was surveyed a few years later, it was incorrectly marked about a mile too far south and remains so to this day.  Georgia has never accepted the incorrect survey and continues to dispute the border, primarily so that the state would have access to the water of the Tennessee River, which the actual 35th parallel intersects but the surveyed border just misses.  (See Tennessee-Georgia water dispute.)

If the border was correctly located, a chunk of Chattanooga would be in Georgia, and part of Memphis would be in Mississippi.  The electoral effects of this change, at least on Georgia, could be interesting.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Tennessee President by Other Source on 2020-05-01

Summary: D: 36%, R: 53%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details