538 updates Pollster ratings

[lfromnj]

Of course somehow hack Marist still has a A+ rating

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262760715296833536

[SnowLabrador]

I really hope they put out the general election model soon.

[Lief 🗽]

Marist's polls are consistently very inaccurate, I have no idea how they are the the highest rated.

Meanwhile the Gold Standard Data for Progress poll gets a B-? Sick stuff.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really hope they put out the general election model soon.

538 is 278 blue wall, its Nate Silver model, AZ can be argued

[lfromnj]

Marist's polls are consistently very inaccurate, I have no idea how they are the the highest rated.

Meanwhile the Gold Standard Data for Progress poll gets a B-? Sick stuff.

Its really incredible, going by their 2018 senate polls the only state they got right was Arizona, the rest were all 5+ points off which is not acceptable for a "A+" tier pollster.

[n1240]

Have seen their polls posted here recently, but they've banned OurProgress/The Progress Campaign polls in their new ratings, so maybe they shouldn't be posted here anymore?

[wbrocks67]

Have seen their polls posted here recently, but they've banned OurProgress/The Progress Campaign polls in their new ratings, so maybe they shouldn't be posted here anymore?

Did they definitively? I heard they were vetting them, but that was the last I heard

[n1240]

Have seen their polls posted here recently, but they've banned OurProgress/The Progress Campaign polls in their new ratings, so maybe they shouldn't be posted here anymore?

Did they definitively? I heard they were vetting them, but that was the last I heard

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It’s amusing that the A-tier pollster with the largest Dem bias is FoxNews.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Have seen their polls posted here recently, but they've banned OurProgress/The Progress Campaign polls in their new ratings, so maybe they shouldn't be posted here anymore?

Did they definitively? I heard they were vetting them, but that was the last I heard

https://twitter.com/OurProgressHQ/status/1262815016153219073

Only 2 polls are marked in that pic, so I'd give it a week before declaring this definitive.

[Ronnie]

Memerson has an A-?  I didn't see that one coming.

[jake_arlington]

I could throw pins at a magnetic dartboard and come up with better ratings than this...by the way, the D4P polling group has also been historically very inaccurate

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just want them to come out with their forecasts for 2020 already. Might be able to find it a few days early by using the adress bar, which I was able to do in 2018. Thye were still working out their meathodology and had weird ratings like IN safe Donnelly, ND Lean Heitkamp, Texas Safe Cruz; I think they must've just weight incumbency with the partisan lean an dnothing else.

[Lief 🗽]

I just want them to come out with their forecasts for 2020 already. Might be able to find it a few days early by using the adress bar, which I was able to do in 2018. Thye were still working out their meathodology and had weird ratings like IN safe Donnelly, ND Lean Heitkamp, Texas Safe Cruz; I think they must've just weight incumbency with the partisan lean an dnothing else.

Nate Silver seems too focused on being an amateur epidemiologist these days, it'll probably a be a while.

[The Mikado]

I just want them to come out with their forecasts for 2020 already. Might be able to find it a few days early by using the adress bar, which I was able to do in 2018. Thye were still working out their meathodology and had weird ratings like IN safe Donnelly, ND Lean Heitkamp, Texas Safe Cruz; I think they must've just weight incumbency with the partisan lean an dnothing else.

The model started in late June in 2016, that's probably a good guess.

[here2view]

Release the model Nate

[jake_arlington]

I just want them to come out with their forecasts for 2020 already. Might be able to find it a few days early by using the adress bar, which I was able to do in 2018. Thye were still working out their meathodology and had weird ratings like IN safe Donnelly, ND Lean Heitkamp, Texas Safe Cruz; I think they must've just weight incumbency with the partisan lean an dnothing else.

The model started in late June in 2016, that's probably a good guess.

With the (unofficial) start of the campaign still yet to be delayed, that's probably a little overly "optimistic" for now. I would shoot for sometime between late August/early October would be my guess, after all.

[The Mikado]

I just want them to come out with their forecasts for 2020 already. Might be able to find it a few days early by using the adress bar, which I was able to do in 2018. Thye were still working out their meathodology and had weird ratings like IN safe Donnelly, ND Lean Heitkamp, Texas Safe Cruz; I think they must've just weight incumbency with the partisan lean an dnothing else.

The model started in late June in 2016, that's probably a good guess.

With the (unofficial) start of the campaign still yet to be delayed, that's probably a little overly "optimistic" for now. I would shoot for sometime between late August/early October would be my guess, after all.

I don't think there's any way the model is released later than three months out from election day (which would be August 3rd this time). Fivethirtyeight needs to make money by people obsessively refreshing, after all. Maybe the House (yes, he said he's doing that again) and Senate models come a little later...in 2018 they came on on August 16th. I could see Silver only starting on the House and Senate models later this time due to the Presidential so maybe they come on in September.

[jake_arlington]

I just want them to come out with their forecasts for 2020 already. Might be able to find it a few days early by using the adress bar, which I was able to do in 2018. Thye were still working out their meathodology and had weird ratings like IN safe Donnelly, ND Lean Heitkamp, Texas Safe Cruz; I think they must've just weight incumbency with the partisan lean an dnothing else.

The model started in late June in 2016, that's probably a good guess.

With the (unofficial) start of the campaign still yet to be delayed, that's probably a little overly "optimistic" for now. I would shoot for sometime between late August/early October would be my guess, after all.

I don't think there's any way the model is released later than three months out from election day (which would be August 3rd this time). Fivethirtyeight needs to make money by people obsessively refreshing, after all. Maybe the House (yes, he said he's doing that again) and Senate models come a little later...in 2018 they came on on August 16th. I could see Silver only starting on the House and Senate models later this time due to the Presidential so maybe they come on in September.

They also had a gubernatorial forecast in 2018 though, and that was later right?

Anyway, in whichever case it will be a special instance this year, taking place under unforeseen circumstances not present back then in that race, having happened four years ago.

[ElectionsGuy]

Of course somehow hack Marist still has a A+ rating

Yes, Evers +10 and Donnelly +3 aged very well.